JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
443 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...GULF LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ...

.A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST BY TUESDAY. HEAVY
RAIN CONCENTRATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PRODUCE 3 TO
6 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

GOLIAD-VICTORIA-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...ROCKPORT...
REFUGIO...WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
443 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO AND
VICTORIA.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

* AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
IMPACT THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LOW WATER CROSSINGS...CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER AREAS NORMALLY PRONE TO FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
601 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

GMZ330-335-350-355-161200-
MATAGORDA BAY-GALVESTON BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
601 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL GENERATE ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG LOCAL AREA BEACHES. DUE TO STRONGER ONSHORE
WINDS AND HIGHER WIND DRIVEN WAVE HEIGHTS...THERE WILL BE AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS. DO NOT SWIM NEAR JETTIES
AND ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT UP IN A RIP CURRENT...
REMAIN CALM AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE COAST UNTIL OUT OF THE
CURRENT'S GRIP.

THIS LONG DURATION SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THIS GULF SYSTEM WILL PULL IN A HIGHER SWELL SO...IN TANDEM WITH
HIGHER WIND DRIVEN WAVES...WATER RUN UP ALONG LOCAL SHORES AND
OVER DUNES MAY OCCUR. DURING HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED
3.5 FEET. WATER LEVELS OVER 3.5 FEET WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING
ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS AND COASTAL ROADWAYS.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Tropical system to impact Texas over the next 24-48 hours

Excessive rainfall will potentially produce a dangerous and life threatening flash flood event over portions of SE TX and SC TX.

Discussion:
There has been little change in the overall organization of 91L overnight as the broad surface low remains tangled with an upper level trough. Recon yesterday evening did find a large area of 35-45mph winds over the southern Gulf of Mexico and the next plane will be in the system this morning. Conditions remain marginally favorable for development, but gradually improve today and into tonight. It is possible that 91L may not be purely tropical as it moves inland and this is suggested by some of the computer guidance which actually shows the system intensifying more as it moves inland and interacts with the tail end of an upper level trough…similar to TS Hermine and TS Erin.

Track:
After a very tightly track guidance cluster…more spread has crept into the models overnight and there has been a slight shift toward the west. Generally, the models remain in decent agreement on a landfall along the middle TX coast between Palacios and Rockport which places all of the upper TX coast on the “dirty” side of the system. This track is a little more uncertain than yesterday as to when the northward turn will take place over TX as the system rounds the western edge of the sub-tropical high over the SE US. Timing remains in good agreement with the system approaching the coast late tonight into early Tuesday and then inland on Tuesday. It is important to not focus on the exact track of the center given such a large and disorganized system. Most of the impacts will be east and extend well away of the actual center.

Intensity:
Little change in this aspect with a weak tropical storm the most likely event at landfall. The system looks poorly organized into landfall and then shows some degree of organization post landfall over the coastal bend and central TX. Impacts will be roughly the same if it stays as it is or is upgraded to a tropical storm.

Impacts:

Rainfall:

Rainfall remains the largest threat with this system and a significant threat.

Average rainfall amounts of 5-7 inches with isolated totals of 10-12 inches are possible along and to the east of where the center moves inland. WPC and model guidance has a swath of very heavy rainfall from roughly Galveston Bay to Matagorda Bay and inland to NE TX over the next 2-4 days along the eastern flank of the circulation. Main concerns will be training of south to north feeder bands on the eastern side of the circulation and potential for any nighttime core rainfall which the Texas Tech model is suggesting for portions of SC and SE TX late tonight into Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night.

Moisture levels continue to support very high hourly rainfall rates of 3-5 inches which will result in rapid flooding problems.

A flash flood watch will be issued for the entire region this afternoon.

Tides:
No change to the forecast tides. Tides are running about a foot above normal this morning on the Gulf beaches and up to 1.5 ft above normal in the bays. Critical high tide will be Tuesday morning in combination with strongest onshore winds on eastern side of surface center. Storm surge guidance is slightly higher this morning…nearing 2.0 ft with a total water level at Galveston 0f up to 3.0 ft Tuesday morning. The more organized the system becomes the high the tides will go due to wave run-up and stronger winds.

Tropical storm conditions will arrive into our coastal waters late this afternoon and then spread toward the coast tonight. Offshore seas will build to near 8-12 ft with nearshore seas 6-8 feet which will also bring a decent volume of water toward the coast. Will be very close to the critical 4.0 ft tide levels on Tuesday morning and only expecting a slow fall with sustained onshore winds all day Tuesday into Wednesday.

Winds:
Tropical storm force winds will be possible along the coast starting late tonight and into Tuesday as the circulation makes landfall. Winds of 35-45mph will be likely offshore, inland bays, and along the coast with speeds of 25-35mph inland.

Tornadoes:
SE TX will fall in the favored tornado production section of the landfalling system with models showing good feeder band structures across the area. Expect the tornado threat to increase this afternoon and remain tonight into Tuesday as bands move inland off the Gulf of Mexico

Will await the newest recon data this morning. An upgrade will require some forecast changes mainly to the winds and wind fields…depending on what the plane finds. Other impacts should remain generally unchanged.

[Rip76]

Thank you for all the updates.

[srainhoutx]

Thank you for all the updates.

That's exactly why we are here and have been throughout the years.

[unome]

from earth.nullschool.net

air mode (Source | GFS / NCEP / US National Weather Service)
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 27.28,1235

ocean mode (Source | WAVEWATCH III / NCEP / NWS)
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/oc ... 27.28,1235

click the "earth" menu, lower left, to change selections

[unome]

getting that "roll"

from: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

latest 72 hrs

[srainhoutx]

Regional Radar and Wide View Water Vapor Imagery:

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity with the broad area of low pressure in the
south-central Gulf of Mexico has become a little more concentrated
this morning. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is just now beginning its
investigation of the system, and will help to determine whether the
low-level circulation has become any better defined since yesterday.
Satellite observations overnight suggest that the low continues to
produce tropical-storm-force winds well to the east and northeast of
the center. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable
for development while this system moves northwestward across the
western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
could form at any time before the system reaches the Texas coast
sometime tomorrow.

Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday. The system is also likely to bring
heavy rainfall with possible flooding across portions of eastern
Texas and western Louisiana. For additional information, please see
High Seas Forecasts and products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[nuby3]

got some good strengthening going on eh?

[srainhoutx]

got some good strengthening going on eh?

It certainly has more character today than yesterday. Let's see what RECON finds. They're making a second pass heading NE about 300 miles ESE of Brownsville.

[srainhoutx]

First visible image and RECON data confirm a closed surface low has continued to organize overnight.

[Scott747]

I don't think it has 'strengthened' that much, just becoming more organized. Probaby has the same wind gusts as late yesterday. Does now have the chance to ramp up a bit if it wraps around more. Baffin Bay to Matagorda Bay looks good for now as 'landfall' which unfortunately puts us on the dirty side of this kind of system with respect to rainfall. I'd guess they will begin initiating advisories at 10 once the full recon mission is finished.

[nuby3]

I don't think it has 'strengthened' that much, just becoming more organized. Probaby has the same wind gusts as late yesterday. Does now have the chance to ramp up a bit if it wraps around more. Baffin Bay to Matagorda Bay looks good for now as 'landfall' which unfortunately puts us on the dirty side of this kind of system with respect to rainfall. I'd guess they will begin initiating advisories at 10 once the full recon mission is finished.

I guess I tend to include getting organized within the process of strengthening. semantics. but I think the better organization is a clear indicator that strengthening is what the storm is doing, however slow it may be, it is only a matter of time before measurements indicate that.

[unome]

from sailwx.info, Gulf of Mexico Barometric Pressure Map

http://www.sailwx.info/wxobs/pressure.phtml
(click on map at the link to zoom in)

[srainhoutx]

12Z Track and Intensity guidance.

[Rip76]

Further South than I would have imagined.

[redneckweather]

Yep, a lot further south than I expected when I woke up this morning. Maybe it will push even further south and won't be much of a threat at all up here on the upper Texas coast except an inch of rain or so.

[nuby3]

all they have said was Matagorda bay, Matagorda Bay, Matagorda Bay. looks right round there to me still

[Scott747]

Keep in mind that 12z guidance is based on 6z data. With recon in there currently it is dated. Should know in about 30 min on a upgrade and current location.