Wx Infinity Forums

srainhoutx wrote:Keeping an eye on the heavy training convective complex along the Middle Texas Coast. The feeder band is slowly shifting E from our Western zones toward Western Harris and Fort Bend Counties. The winds have increased significantly the past hour or so in NW Harris County. Gusting above 30 MPH. The Weather Prediction Center is suggesting an additional 2-5 inches of rainfall may be possible today across areas W of the I-45 Corridor. A Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been outlined basically W of I-45 with a High Risk for the Dallas area. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall continues along and East of I-45. A Tornado Watch continues for Harris, Ft Bend, Brazoria, Montgomery, Walker Counties on to the West. The Brazos River Valley has been pummeled overnight with very heavy rainfall. Flash Flood Warnings continue for the Counties along that River. Very heavy thunderstorms are beginning to move inland in Matagorda County. Could be a rough morning commute. Also appears a meso low has developed near Victoria generally moving NE toward Metro Houston. A new feeder band is setting up across West Galveston Bay. That one will also need to be monitored this morning as well.

Looking ahead for the remainder of the week, the various computer schemes suggest an unsettled pattern will remain in place with a pesky shear axis and weakness continuing between the upper ridge to our East and additional mid/upper level moisture associated with Carlos being pulled NE across Mexico and Texas. Long fetch deep tropical moisture looks to continue streaming N along the Western periphery of the upper ridge across the SE United States. We may see a drying trend by early next week, but there are some indications additional moisture from the Western Caribbean may continue streaming into the Western Gulf and embedded shortwave disturbances move across the Central Plains bringing additional daytime showers and storms to our Region.

Sounds like life as usual to me.

BlueJay wrote:

nuby3 wrote:upgraded again from 80 percent chance of heavy rain to 100% chance for tonight in the woodlands.. interesting

Interesting. i thought that David Paul's 5:00 pm forecast maps showed us to be pretty dry tonight...
We will see.

pops went back down to 50% for woodlands

Oh, I forgot to ask you what the indications you refer to are in your previous post, Srainhoutex. Could you please share that with me?

Paul Robison wrote:Oh, I forgot to ask you what the indications you refer to are in your previous post, Srainhoutex. Could you please share that with me?

You are talking about a post that was made like 15+ hours ago. Why would you even ask about it now? In case you didn't know, a lot has changed since then.

davidiowx wrote:

Paul Robison wrote:Oh, I forgot to ask you what the indications you refer to are in your previous post, Srainhoutex. Could you please share that with me?

You are talking about a post that was made like 15+ hours ago. Why would you even ask about it now? In case you didn't know, a lot has changed since then.

Disregard previous post.

Radar returns are dying by the hour, looks like we are done with the effects of Bill.
GFS shows a shower or two over the next few days then normal high and dry pattern resumes.
Should finally go back to regularly scheduled programming, but glad to see this board lively during an event like Bill.

Baseballdude2915 wrote:Radar returns are dying by the hour, looks like we are done with the effects of Bill.
GFS shows a shower or two over the next few days then normal high and dry pattern resumes.
Should finally go back to regularly scheduled programming, but glad to see this board lively during an event like Bill.

Y'all did a splendid job. If only New Orleans had had a board like this one when Katrina hit them.....

A beautiful calm radar across Houston metro.

Sorry but nothing quiet about the radar here at my location..... Flash flood warning just issued
Montgomery, Tx

FLASH FLOOD WARNING Montgomery. pouring at my house

Storms are beginning to develop into what will likely be the next feeder band originating along a Victoria to Montgomery/Waller and Walker Counties cluster as an approaching shortwave over Northern Mexico is moves E and moisture from Deep South Texas likely from Carlos remnant mid/upper level moisture spreads into Texas. A bit worrisome to see a slow moving cluster of thunderstorms organizing across our NW areas. We'll need to monitor this area for training storms and back building the next few hours.

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0240
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL OK...EAST/SOUTHEAST TX...WEST
AR...SOUTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 180727Z - 181327Z

SUMMARY...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO CHURN NEAR THE RED
RIVER OF OK/TX WITH THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINS LINGERING.

DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TO 500MB CIRCULATION WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR THE RED RIVER OF
OK/TX THIS EARLY MORNING. A PLETHORA OF MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES
TO DRAW NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WRAP AROUND THE LOW.
.25DEG GFS AND ECMWF STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR PWS AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE FLUX ARE BASICALLY OFF THE CHARTS... 3 AND 5 TIMES ABOVE
AVG RESPECTIVELY. THIS MOISTURE RIDING ON A 40KT 850 MB JET IS
AHEAD OF A VAGUELY RESEMBLED SURFACE TROUGH TO AN ACTING SHARP
DEFORMATION REGION. BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST HI-RES/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE... EXPECT TWO CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MORE
PERSISTENT COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION RAINS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE
CENTER... WHICH COULD STILL FLARE UP BEING NOCTURNAL HRS... TO THE
NORTH AND EAST WITH A SHARP CUT OFF ZONE TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS MEANS 2 TO 4 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES IN THE NEXT 6 HRS FROM EAST CENTRAL OK INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KS/SOUTHWESTERN MO AND NORTHWESTERN AR WITH PERHAPS A
MIN OVER EASTERN OK WITH SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION. THE OTHER LOCALE
WILL BE FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN AR... AS CONDITIONS
ARE MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ALLOWING MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND
FEEDER BANDS/ZONES TO DEVELOP FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING. THIS ZONE IS
A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN TO PREDICT BUT WITHIN DEVELOPING CELLS
TRACKING NORTH OR NORTH AND EAST... EXPECT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THE LOW SIDE. THIS SIX HOUR
WINDOW REALLY KEEPS THE REGION IN THE CROSS-HAIRS AS BILL REMAINS
SEPARATED FROM THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.

MUSHER

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...LZK...OUN...SGF...
SHV...TSA...

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
243 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

TXZ176>178-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181800-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-150618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-SAN JACINTO-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...DAYTON...
EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...
LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...
MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...
PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...
RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...
TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...WHARTON...
WILLIS...WINNIE
243 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...JACKSON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...SAN JACINTO...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON

* A WESTERN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO A VERY MOIST
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS ENVIRONMENT...ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE LEFT OVER FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL..WILL
GENERATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF POCKETS OF HIGH RAINFALL THAT WILL
REAGGRAVATE REGIONAL FLOODING ISSUES. THE GROUND IS STILL WET
AND NEARLY SATURATED IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND IT WILL ONLY TAKE A
SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO CREATE RUNOFF. HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES EXCEEDING TWO INCHES WILL MORE THAN LIKELY INITIATE FLASH
FLOODING.

* ROADWAY FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT DURING THE WATCH
PERIOD. SMALL STREAM...RIVER AND BAYOU FLOODING THREAT WILL
INCREASE AS RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS UPSTREAM BASINS
DRAIN INTO THE DOWNSTREAM MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

TXC225-313-373-407-455-471-181130-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0155.150618T0834Z-150618T1130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
POLK TX-HOUSTON TX-TRINITY TX-MADISON TX-WALKER TX-SAN JACINTO TX-
334 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT

* AT 332 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CROCKETT...APPLE SPRINGS...TRINITY...GROVETON...LOVELADY...
RIVERSIDE...KENNARD...SEBASTOPOL...OAKHURST...WECHES...PENNINGTON
AND CENTRALIA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

TXC089-239-321-481-181515-
/O.CON.KHGX.FA.W.0008.000000T0000Z-150618T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COLORADO TX-WHARTON TX-JACKSON TX-MATAGORDA TX-
329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN WHARTON...JACKSON AND WEST CENTRAL
MATAGORDA COUNTIES...

AT 324 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. THE STRONGER CELLS
WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR. IN ADDITION
TO ONGOING CREEK AND RIVER FLOODING...STREET FLOODING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. DO NOT
DRIVE ACROSS WATER COVERED ROADS!

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... EL
CAMPO...EDNA...PALACIOS...GANADO...LA WARD...PIERCE...LOLITA...
BLESSING...CORDELE...EGYPT...LAKE TEXANA DAM...MORALES...DANEVANG...
LOUISE...GARWOOD...VANDERBILT...MIDFIELD AND NADA.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 AM CDT

* AT 350 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
APPLE SPRINGS...TRINITY...GROVETON...LOVELADY...RIVERSIDE...
KENNARD...SEBASTOPOL...WECHES...PENNINGTON...CENTRALIA AND
OAKHURST.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED
AREA.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
336 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

TXC149-181130-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0199.150618T0836Z-150618T1130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FAYETTE TX-
336 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT

* AT 334 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A SCHULENBURG TO LA GRANGE TO CARMINE
LINE. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
RECENT RAINS WILL MAKE RUNOFF MORE RAPID.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LA GRANGE...SCHULENBURG...FAYETTEVILLE...ROUND TOP...CARMINE...
HOLMAN...WALHALLA...HIGH HILL...SWISS ALP...WINEDALE...WARRENTON...
DUBINA...ELLINGER...REK HILL...WALDECK...AMMANNSVILLE...WILLOW
SPRINGS...RUTERSVILLE AND MULLINS PRAIRIE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.