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Fast approaching July - thought I would start a new thread. Here is to hoping for cooler temsps in July.

The 12Z GFS and European computer guidance suggest we may have a weakness in the upper levels across Texas as we start July. I know a lot of folks are interested in the 4th of July Outlook, so we will begin to follow the trends and see if showers and slightly cooler weather mainly from cloud cover and passing rain showers will impact those Holiday Plans.

While there have been famous exceptions, (last year's Category 2 hurricane Arthur hitting the U.S. on the 4th of July and the notorious 2005 season) it's not unusual for a lull to take place at the end of June and into July, after an early phase of activity in the Gulf/Caribbean in the first part of June and even late May, and prior to the average Aug-Sep-Oct peak of the season which, yes, includes those wonderful tropical waves coming off Africa and ramping up in late July and August.

Looking ahead at the extended range forecast for the 4th of July Holiday weekend, the ensembles suggest at this very far and uncertain range via the computer schemes that the Tropical Atlantic will be quiet.. bar any mischief developing in our back yard. SAL (Saharan Air Layer) or dust from the Saharan Desert continues to move W off of Africa into the MDR (Main Development Region) and conditions remain hostile for tropical development across the Eastern and Central Atlantic which is typical of an El Nino year. There are indications that a robust MJO pulse may arrive around mid July as it moves E across the Pacific Ocean where two INVEST systems are showing potential for organizing in the Western Pacific Basin, but that is too far away to know with any certainty what it may or may not bring to our part of the World. I expect we will continue with a typical summer time pattern of heat of the day storm chances as we begin July...but that is 5 days+ away...so we will continue to monitor.

Certainly no need for rain on the 4th.

Same here!

Morning briefing from Jeff for the July 4th Holiday Weekend:

Decreasing rain chances Wednesday-Friday.

Low level boundary which helped to produce heavy rainfall and flooding over the weekend has pretty much washed out this morning and is hard to locate. Air mass over the region is very moist and unstable with offshore CAPE values running 2500-3500J/kg already this morning. Overall weak wind regime in place will support the inland movement of the seabreeze boundary by mid morning. Given the generally unstable air mass in place expect showers and thunderstorms to develop with daytime heating and the inland movement of the seabreeze front.

High pressure cells to the west and SE of SE TX will maintain a general height weakness over the state for the next several days allowing daily seabreeze thunderstorms. This weakness fills some on Thursday and Friday, but upper level ridging never fully develops over the region and does not look strong enough to shut off rainfall chances.

By this weekend another strong short wave in the northern stream flow will move across the northern US and send a frontal boundary into the southern plains. This boundary looks to stall over KS/OK on Saturday, but deep tropical moisture will surge northward out of the Gulf of Mexico and interact with a developing trough of low pressure over TX. Once again rainfall will come back into the forecast starting on Saturday and lasting through the weekend with the best chances likely tied to the seabreeze. Will need to keep an eye on this period for another potentially heavy rainfall event.

It looks like we will begin July with a somewhat similar sensible weather pattern we experienced yesterday. Convection has developed again off the NE Gulf Coast of Mexico and should surge N today into this afternoon. Rounds of scattered storms look to develop with the heat of the day with the potential for localized heavy rainfall.



We may get a brief reprieve Thursday into Friday before another surge of moisture arrives and heights lower again across the Southern half of Texas into Louisiana bringing chances for additional showers and storms Saturday into Sunday. It does appear we may dry out beginning Monday into the early part of next week, but isolated to scattered daytime showers and storms cannot be ruled out as this typical summer pattern looks locked in place for the foreseeable future. Everyone have a great day and safe 4th of July Holiday Weekend!

A healthy shower just passed over us providing 0.52".

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
145 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LAVACA TX-
145 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RISES FOR...
LAVACA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 144 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
YOAKUM...HALLETTSVILLE...SHINER...EZZELL...SUBLIME...SPEAKS...SWEET
HOME...WORTHING...MOUNT OLIVE...BRESLAU...KOERTH...MONT...VSETIN...
HOPE...WIED AND VIENNA.

It's really coming down in Stafford! Very windy! I can actually hear the wind inside the house. The rain looks like it is coming down sideways. Whew! I made it home just in time. I wasn't home 10 minutes when it started.

I left 15 minutes early at work to catch daily 246 metro bus ride home before the outflow boundary. Thankfully I was on the bus as the outflow boundary moved through downtown. Heavy rains, strong gusty winds, and inside out umbrellas. Glad I was on the bus and cloudy but cool weather at the Bay Area Park n Ride. Today's outflow boundary develop developed in the WGOM offshore of S TX just like yesterday.

Katdaddy wrote:I left 15 minutes early at work to catch daily 246 metro bus ride home before the outflow boundary. Thankfully I was on the bus as the outflow boundary moved through downtown. Heavy rains, strong gusty winds, and inside out umbrellas. Glad I was on the bus and cloudy but cool weather at the Bay Area Park n Ride. Today's outflow boundary develop developed in the WGOM offshore of S TX just like yesterday.

And this is what's expected on the 4th of July? That'd be a bummer.

Paul Robison wrote:

Katdaddy wrote:I left 15 minutes early at work to catch daily 246 metro bus ride home before the outflow boundary. Thankfully I was on the bus as the outflow boundary moved through downtown. Heavy rains, strong gusty winds, and inside out umbrellas. Glad I was on the bus and cloudy but cool weather at the Bay Area Park n Ride. Today's outflow boundary develop developed in the WGOM offshore of S TX just like yesterday.

And this is what's expected on the 4th of July? That'd be a bummer.

Paul
The last couple of 4th of July's it has rained during the day, but has cleared by the time the big boomers go up, at least that has been the pattern here by the bay. Mother Nature doesn't like competition, but she does yield to the red white and blue fireworks. Have a safe and enjoyable 4th.

After a quiet weather day on Thursday, moisture levels are increasing today from the Gulf as PW's rise to near 2 inches and shower activity is evident on the radar scope early this morning. Showers and storms should be scattered across the Region today with daytime heating.

Across the Western Gulf, a tropical wave looks to further increase the moisture levels on Saturday as the upper ridge edges back to the West opening the onshore flow off the Gulf a bit further increasing rain chances to around 50% or so for the 4th of July festivities. Showers and storms should decrease in areal coverage on Sunday as the upper ridge begins to build across the Western Gulf of Mexico. Early next week it appears we will dry out as the upper ridge strengthens across Texas and Louisiana. Only isolated heat of the day showers and storms appear possible as the upper ridge remains large and in charge for most of next week.

srainhoutx wrote:After a quiet weather day on Thursday, moisture levels are increasing today from the Gulf as PW's rise to near 2 inches and shower activity is evident on the radar scope early this morning. Showers and storms should be scattered across the Region today with daytime heating.

Across the Western Gulf, a tropical wave looks to further increase the moisture levels on Saturday as the upper ridge edges back to the West opening the onshore flow off the Gulf a bit further increasing rain chances to around 50% or so for the 4th of July festivities. Showers and storms should decrease in areal coverage on Sunday as the upper ridge begins to build across the Western Gulf of Mexico. Early next week it appears we will dry out as the upper ridge strengthens across Texas and Louisiana. Only isolated heat of the day showers and storms appear possible as the upper ridge remains large and in charge for most of next week.

Any serious wind/lightning/heavy rain threats holiday revelers like myself should be on the lookout for?

Happy 4th of July! Mother Nature may provided some of her own fireworks this afternoon. The SPC has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of SE TX. The good news is that most of the afternoon thunderstorms should dissipate before the fireworks this evening.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS AND PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE FIREWORKS SHOWS BEGIN LATE SATURDAY
EVENING.

IF TRAVELING TO AREA BEACHES...SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND AWAY FROM JETTIES...PIERS AND ROCK GROINS. THAT IS WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LOCATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 104 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

Happy Independence Day gang. Stay safe and drink plenty of water if you have outdoor activities planned over the weekend. The 07/04 12Z HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) guidance suggests showers and storms increase this afternoon in areal coverage as PW's have risen above 2 inches and the atmosphere is basically uncapped. Convective temperatures today are in the 86-90 F range and there is a shear axis overhead and to our East where heights are lower into Louisiana. The day likely will NOT be a washout, but strong to possibly severe storms may pulse up around 3 to 5 PM, so be prepared to take cover and certainly be aware of lightning today especially swimming at the pool or along the beaches. It does appear the storm activity will wane before the various Firework Celebrations begin, but there may be some activity dropping S from NE Texas where a stalled boundary is in place. As a side note...we are aware that the attachment feature is not functioning. It was reported on Thursday to KHOU and the issue is within the database and not our server. There are alternatives such as photobucket and probably imageshack that can be utilized until the Tech folks have the time to dig into our database and find exactly where the problem is located. In the meantime, Happy 4th of July!

Just had a quick pop up shower here in Stafford. I was sitting on the porch when I started getting wet. It actually startled me as I was not expecting it. Have a safe and fun 4th!

And now, the holiday spoiler:

I've been in contact with a blogger named Grothar on http://www.wunderground.com. As some of you may have noticed, some of the GFS model runs have been hinting at some kind of tropical weather system impacting the Texas coast in 20 days. Now, I'm sure we won't have a good answer until the latest PLANFALF runs comes in. If the McTavish numbers come in line with the PLANFALF, and GFS gets on board, the results could be bad news for our state. Mind everyone, this is about 20 days out but, if everything comes together, we could be looking at a high end cat 4 from this. Unfortunately, cat 5 cannot be ruled out (although they're rare) but, this being an El Nino year, Grothar says the McTavish results are leaning in that direction. Stay Tuned.