October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

[unome]

HGX Hazardous Weather Outlook, others at the link
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
510 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-241300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
510 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR
LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ALONG THE BAY
SHORES. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOST LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT MAY BEGIN EARLIER ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR. BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY...
THE TOTAL RAINFALL MAY POSSIBLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 10 TO 12 INCHES. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AREAS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
ALONG THE COAST...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO COASTAL FLOODING AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH AND GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

$$

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Excessive rainfall increasingly likely over SE TX this weekend

Coastal flooding likely on Sunday

Coastal storm formation likely Sunday as remains of incredibly powerful hurricane Patricia move across SE TX.

Discussion:
If things were not already bad enough…the development of Patricia overnight into a record breaking strong hurricane will result in changes to the forecast with increased impacts to SE TX. Radar is already active this morning as deep tropical moisture has surged into SE TX. A band of thunderstorms…some producing heavy rainfall…extend from near Victoria to Huntsville. Storm totals have already averaged 2.0 inches over Colorado County this morning with rapidly increasing totals over Austin and Grimes Counties. Most of this activity should remain west of I-45 today closest to the favorable low level inflow off the Gulf.

A cold front has also moved into TX and is slowly progressing southward over N TX…showers and thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall are also training WSW to ENE along this boundary. This boundary will move southward into SE TX on Saturday and then slow or even stall across the region on Sunday.

Saturday:
Frontal boundary will creep into the region with numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of this feature as Gulf moisture inflow is maintained and massive surge of mid and high level moisture from Patricia begins to arrive. Would also expect some PVA or disturbances (spokes of energy) to eject NE out of the mid to upper level circulation of the decaying hurricane and this could enhance rainfall on Saturday.

Saturday night:
High level energy of Patricia will arrive into S TX and then into the coastal bend area by Sunday morning. This will combine with a developing surface low over S TX and help to deepen or intensify the feature as it moves NE up the TX coast. Expect widespread heavy to excessive rainfall to develop with numerous banding features and training episodes. Moisture levels peak at near record levels for this time of year and the combined lift of the frontal slope and developing surface low will squeeze all that moisture out over the area.

Sunday:
Coastal storm tracks slowly across the NW Gulf water/or just inland with widespread impacts. Expect widespread heavy to excessive rainfall to continue with numerous banding features and periods of training. Will cover winds and tides below.

Rainfall Amounts:
Rainfall maximums have shifted southeast from central TX toward the upper TX coast/SE TX since yesterday in good agreement with track of Patricia remains and coastal low.

Widespread amounts: 4-7 inches

Isolated amounts: 10-12 inches

Flooding is becoming a very real concern with the forecasted rainfall amounts even with the dry grounds in place. High rainfall rates as already observed this morning will lead to rapid run-off into area creeks and bayous. Flash Flood Watches will be required late today.

Tides:
ET surge model showing more and more storm surge Saturday night/Sunday morning and this falls with a double peak high tide on Saturday night. Storm surge values now up to 2.0 ft or slightly more at Galveston due to strong onshore winds on the east side of the developing coastal low. Total water level rise of 4.5-5.0 ft expected and this could go a little higher. Saturday evening high tide looks the highest of just under 5.0 ft. For reference these values will be about 1.5-2.0 ft higher than what has been happening the last few days.

Critical flood thresholds along the Gulf beaches and inland bays range from 4.0-5.0ft and it looks like we are going to meet those values. Expect coastal flooding Saturday night into Sunday morning on Bolivar and the west end of Galveston Island, Surfside, portions of Kemah, Seabrook, Clear Lake, Nassau Bay, and Shoreacres.

Seas will build 8-14 feet Saturday night into Sunday and with the high tides much of this wave energy will be delivered into the upper parts of the beach areas and dune lines leading to coastal erosion and overwash.

Residents in low lying coastal areas should be fully aware of the potential for coastal flooding and take the need actions today to prepare for overwash and inundated roadways.

A coastal flood warning may be required on Saturday.

Winds:
Winds will start to increase early Saturday as low pressure begins to form over S TX and then continue to increase Saturday night into Sunday. Looking like sustained speeds of 40mph are possible over the coastal waters which would require a Gale Warning. Inland winds will be gusty in the 20-35mph range.

Highlights:

Rainfall: 4-7 inches (10-12 inches isolated)

Tides: 4-5 ft Saturday night/Sunday

Winds: 20-35mph stronger along the coast and offshore

Flood Threat: high

River Flood Threat: moderate to high

Timing: Onset of heavy rainfall (west early Saturday) all SE TX Saturday afternoon/evening.

Confidence:

Rainfall: moderate on totals (low on locations with maximum amounts)

Tides: moderate to high

Winds: high

Timing: moderate to high



WPC (5-day) Expected Rainfall Totals:

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0603
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
601 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 231000Z - 231600Z

SUMMARY...INCREASING TRAINING CONVECTION ON N-S BOUNDARY...TO
INTERSECT/MERGE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NE TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING WEDGE OF CONVECTION WITHIN DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SEEN IN IR SATELLITE LOOP CROSSING DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METRO ATTM (PLEASE SEE 0741Z SPENES FROM NESDIS FOR MORE DETAILS)
CONTINUES WITH STRONG UVVS FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMICS AND
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG INTERFACE OF 30KT
LLJ AND SW TO NE STALLED STATIONARY FRONT. A GENERAL LULL IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT BETWEEN WEAK WAVES HAS REDUCED BACKBUILDING OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH SURGE OF
WAA AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE COASTLINE OF THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO IS ACTIVATING NEW CONVECTION THAT IS REMAINS
FOCUSED AND ENHANCED ALONG N-S CONFLUENCE/ DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. GENERALLY THE CLOUD BARRING LAYER OF THE
CELLS IS DEEPLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTH...SO CELLS WILL
GENERALLY TRAIN OVER THE SAME CORRIDOR FROM JACKSON TO LIMESTONE
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL UVV SUPPORT IS GIVEN
IN THE LEFT EXIT OF 70 KT SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS/OUTFLOW CHANNEL
FROM HURRICANE PATRICIA. THIS SHOULD INCREASE VERTICAL DEPTH AND
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY OF THE CELLS AS THEY PROGRESS NORTHWARD ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH TPWS RANGING FROM
2.25" ALONG THE GULF COAST TO 2.0" NEAR DAL/FTW AREA INTO SE
OKLAHOMA WILL SUPPORT RATES OF 1.5-2.0"/HR WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER
IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME DEEPER AND MORE ROBUST BY 12Z. OVERALL
LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLASH FLOODING IS THE HIGH FFG WITHIN THE AREA
OF CONCERN...THOUGH WITH SATURATED SOILS OVER NE TEXAS THE THREAT
IS OBVIOUSLY HIGHER THERE...EVEN THOUGH THE TOTALS MAY BE LESS
THAN WITHIN THE N-S TRAINING CORRIDOR.

HI-RES CAMS SUCH AS THE OLD 12Z WRF-NSSL AND GEM REGIONAL ALONG
WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS CHANNEL OF TRAINING
CELLS MERGING WITH CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV.

[unome]

bad timing for radar outage http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... roduct=FTM

146
NOUS64 KFWD 230655
FTMFWS
Message Date: Oct 23 2015 07:13:25

THE FORT WORTH 88D HAS BECOME INOPERABLE DUE TO AN ANTENNA PROBLEM. TECHNICIANS
ARE BEING NOTIFIED OF THE PROBLEM. UNKNOWN RESTORATION TIME. ALTERNATE RADARS
INCLUDE THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND DALLAS LOVE TERMINAL DOPPLERS WHICH BOTH PROD
UCE LONG RANGE REFLECTIVITY AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS. /DUNN/



alternate radars mentioned can be found here using "select new radar" option: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/ridgenew2/

[unome]

I think he recently awoke, to the new Patricia data, sometimes you catch what you chase

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/657526707549700097

Josh Morgerman
‏@iCyclone

Running out of ways to express surprise. All I can say: WTF. Our spot (Perula) is directly in path of nuclear #Hurricane #PATRICIA.

[srainhoutx]

Scott747 woke up Josh and Eric when RECON data was coming in early this morning. Obviously the biggest concern is to SAFELY intercept Patricia.

[unome]

Scott747 woke up Josh and Eric when RECON data was coming in early this morning. Obviously the biggest concern is to SAFELY intercept Patricia.

no doubt, I wish them well. more posts after that one: https://twitter.com/iCyclone/with_replies


Mark Sudduth ‏@hurricanetrack 1 hour ago

@iCyclone went to bed 5 hours ago and likely doesn't know yet that Patricia is 200 mph now. He is directly in its path.

Josh Morgerman ‏@iCyclone 27 minutes ago La Huerta, Jalisco

@hurricanetrack Yes, woke up to a shock, to be perfectly frank.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
712 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK FORECAST UPDATE FOR MORNING POPS BASED ON LATEST CONVECTIVE
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF AN 850 MB LLJ WEST OF HIGHWAY 59 THIS MORNING.
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 2-2.2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS
STRETCHING FROM HOUSTON SOUTHWEST ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
AND THIS WILL ENHANCE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

PLEASE NOTE: 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION IS ALSO INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING CLL/UTS/CXO AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD THIS MORNING... AND MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO IFR/MVFR FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 59 PER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND HAVE CONTINUED VCSH
MENTION FOR ALL TERMINALS... WITH AMENDMENTS LIKELY. EXPECT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 6 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH
HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

A MIX OF IFR TO VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO
PREVAILING MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AFTER 14-15Z... WITH LOWER
CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN. EXPECT CIGS TO SCATTER OUT
THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING BACK TO MVFR
AFTER 06Z.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES... A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO UNFOLD
FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS TERMINALS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT TSRA/SHRA TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AND OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS... WITH VISIBILITY AND CIG
IMPACTS LIKELY.

HUFFMAN

[unome]

hotel options appear limited in Josh/Eric's immediate area - the tallest is abandoned & all look too close to coast for possible surge - they may need to boogie on down the road further

https://www.google.com/maps/search/Hote ... 19.5918469

[Scott747]

Let's just say this is far and away the craziest situation since I've been helping Josh.

Historical doesn't do Patricia justice. The recon readings were legit. Still see little evidence of a erc and the current intensity has me questioning an intercept near the coast unless they literally find a bomb shelter like building...

[srainhoutx]

Let's just say this is far and away the craziest situation since I've been helping Josh.

Historical doesn't do Patricia justice. The recon readings were legit. Still see little evidence of a erc and the current intensity has me questioning an intercept near the coast unless they literally find a bomb shelter like building...

Have to agree Scott. This is not like anything or anyplace that Josh has chased particularly without a very strong structure. Not sure with the very compact inner core that ERC would make any difference.

[davidiowx]

Let's hope he stays safe out there. It's not worth it if you don't have a sound structure to bunker down in.

[srainhoutx]

No changes with the 12Z tracks for Patricia.

[unome]

looks like higher elevation & better walls, but not sure about the roof & windows...

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Las+A ... 812d1f6de4

http://alamandas.com/?vh_accommodation=casa-del-domo

[davidiowx]

looks like higher elevation & better walls, but not sure about the roof & windows...

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Las+A ... 812d1f6de4

http://alamandas.com/?vh_accommodation=casa-del-domo

I am pretty sure that won't be there after this storm comes and goes.. Unfortunately. Looks like a pretty nice place.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/23/15 1323Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1315Z JS
.
LOCATION...NW LOUISIANA/SW ARKANSAS/CENT TO E TEXAS/SE OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...UPDATE TO PREVIOUS SPENES MESSAGES FOR CONTINUING AND EVOLVING
HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BEGINNING TO GET A BETTER IDEA OF THE
NEXT STAGES OF THE COMPLEX MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT. CERTAINLY THE
OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION HAS MANY SIGNALS FOR A CLASSIC TX-S CENT
US EVENT WITH PRIMARY MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVING LIFTED NE FROM
THE SW US INTO THE N-CENT PLANS LEAVING BEHIND A TRAILING BOUNDARY OVER
CENT-NE TX/SW AR WHICH IS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR THE CONTINUING S-SE 30KT
PLUS 850MB LLJ WHICH IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT DEEP LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE MORNING RAOBS
AND GOES SOUNDER DATA ARE RUNNING FROM AROUND 1.75" OVER N TX INTO SW
AR/NW LA TO A VERY ANOMALOUS 2.5" AT BRO. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ABOVE 700MB FROM HURRICANE PATRICIA IS EVIDENT IN THE CIRA LAYERED TPW
PRODUCT WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED ACROSS CENT TO NE TX/SW
AR AIDED BY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW ALOFT ON THE N PERIPHERY OF PATRICIA
PER THE RECENT CIMSS/NOAA-NSSL WIND DIVERGENCE PRODUCT. AT THE SFC, IN
ADDITION TO THE ANALYZED FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF AXIS OVER CENT-NE TX/SW
AR, OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF OBSERVATIONAL DATA IS INDICATING SOME MODEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN AXIS OF LLJ WHICH IS HELPING TO IGNITE SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM SE TX SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENT-E CENT TX.
.
OUTLOOK...MESO-ANALYSIS CURRENTLY PLACES CENT TO N CENT TX OVER TO
NE TX/SW AR AND EVENTUALLY FAR NW LA AS THE FAVORED INTERSECTION OF
THE S-SE LLJ, LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY, MAX UPPER DIVERGENCE, AND BETTER
LIFT FROM IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION APPROACHING N CENT TX TO
THE W OF STEPHENVILLE-MINERAL WELLS. ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN
CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS N CENT TX IN RESPONSE TO
AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION SO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BELIEVE THE
BETTER FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AS THIS IMPULSE RIDES
ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS N CENT (INCLUDING THE DALLAS-FT WORTH REGION) TO
NE TX INTO SW AR AND EVENTUALLY NW LA. SEE ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC
APPENDED TO THE TEXT MESSAGE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS BELOW IN APPROX 10
MINUTES OUTLINING THE THREAT AREA. SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS LIKELY OVER THIS REGION WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
CELL MERGERS AND SUBSEQUENT TRAINING FROM WSW TO ENE OCCURS AS ACTIVITY
MOVES WITH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE PROFILES CERTAINLY DO SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR 1"-2"/HR RATES WITH ANY OF THE MORE VIGOROUS EMBEDDED
CELLS. WILL CONTINUE TO TRY TO STAGGER DISSEMINATION OF SPENES MESSAGES
WITH WPC'S MPD'S, SO FOR ADDITIONAL INFO, PLEASE REFER TO WPC QPF,
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHIC/DISCUSSION, AND ACTIVE MPD'S.

[ticka1]

Let's just say this is far and away the craziest situation since I've been helping Josh.

Historical doesn't do Patricia justice. The recon readings were legit. Still see little evidence of a erc and the current intensity has me questioning an intercept near the coast unless they literally find a bomb shelter like building...

Keep us updated - hope they heed the serious nature of Patricia and move inland immediately.

[Texaspirate11]

Morning disco HGX

A model consensus is for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
affect mainly areas west and north of Houston today and tonight...
with isolated chances elsewhere. Late tonight and on Saturday
an area of rain and thunderstorms will begin affecting the western
counties as the frontal boundary approaches from the northwest.
The rain and thunderstorms will overspread the entire area by
Saturday evening as the surface low moves up from south Texas.
The chances for heaviest rainfall is now looking to be Saturday
night and Sunday. Total rainfall amounts from today through Monday
evening may range from 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals possibly
exceeding 10 to maybe even 12 inches. Model solutions put the
heaviest rainfall in different locations.


Because of the location and timing issues...will wait until later
today to issue any flood watches.

[Texaspirate11]

Here we go..........


FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
937 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-232245-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0017.151024T1200Z-151026T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
937 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT ...BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...
WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND SOME AREA OF RAINFALL MAY REACH 9 TO 12 INCHES.

* THE RAINFALL RATES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY EXCEED 3 INCH
PER HOUR RATES WHICH WILL EASILY LEAD TO STREET FLOODING. RIVER
AND BAYOU FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAIVER AMOUNTS
CONCENTRATE. BY MONDAY MORNING THE HEAVIER RAINS MAY DEPART THE
AREA TO THE EAST BUT THE THREAT OF RIVER AND BAYOU FLOODING WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

[unome]

NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP Satellite Sees Record-Breaking Hurricane Patricia

http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/pat ... cific-2015


When NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite passed over Patricia on October 23 at 5:23 a.m. EDT the VIIRS instrument that flies aboard Suomi NPP looked at the storm in infrared light. Cloud top temperatures of thunderstorms around the eyewall were near minus 90 Celsius (minus 130 Fahrenheit).
Credits: NRL/NASA/NOAA