October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

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srainhoutx
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Onion Creek in Southern Travis County just 2 feet shy of the record flood of 1998.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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davidiowx
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srainhoutx wrote:Onion Creek in Southern Travis County just 2 feet shy of the record flood of 1998.
Unfortunately that record will be shattered. Hope everyone stays safe
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srainhoutx
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I-35 @ Buda closed due to flooding. Onion Creek just broke the record of 1998 with 25.4 feet and still rising.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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sau27
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Interesting to note LCH has already issued a Flash Flood Watch but HGX has not yet. I would assume one would be forthcoming right?
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srainhoutx
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sau27 wrote:Interesting to note LCH has already issued a Flash Flood Watch but HGX has not yet. I would assume one would be forthcoming right?
Forecasters are drawing up the FFW at this time.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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sau27
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Is the area of concern for us the system coming from the south around Corpus, or the system drenching the Hill country right now, or both?
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Jeff is doing a fantastic job updating his Twitter feed with the latest:

https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/with_replies
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srainhoutx
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All of SE Texas in Slight Risk from the updated SPC Convective Outlook.
10302015 1622Z day1otlk_20151030_1630_prt.gif
10302015 1622Z day1probotlk_20151030_1630_torn_prt.gif
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CNTRL TX INTO SE TX/SW
LA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK
AREA...FROM SW TX INTO N CNTRL TX AND WRN LA...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
A COUPLE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH SW U.S. TROUGH EXPECTED TO FURTHER
AMPLIFY AS JET STREAK NOW CROSSING THE LWR CO VLY CONTINUES SSEWD.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...REACHING A WRN OK/SW TX AXIS BY
12Z SAT. IN THE MEAN TIME...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX.

AT LWR LVLS...LARGE ANTICYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY WILL
EDGE ONLY SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINTAINING SHALLOW LAYER
OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR OVER THE HALF OF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE /PW AROUND 2 INCHES/ NOW OVER S TX WILL
SPREAD NNE INTO THE SABINE RVR VLY BY EARLY SAT...WITH THE NEAR-SFC
LAYER ALSO LIKELY TO UNDERGO APPRECIABLE WARMING/MOISTENING NEWD
INTO SW LA.

...S CNTRL TO SE TX TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STG-SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SAT OVER
PARTS OF SRN...CNTRL...AND SE TX AS SW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AHEAD OF
SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. WHILE EXISTING STORMS LIKELY
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E ACROSS THE OTLK AREA TODAY...ADDITIONAL EPISODES
OF DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL
COUNTRY AND S CNTRL TX LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE/DEVELOP E/NE INTO SE TX AND SW LA EARLY
SAT. THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DMGG WIND
AND A FEW TORNADOES...WITH THE RISK FOR LARGER HAIL CONFINED LARGELY
TO THE WRN FRINGE OF THE OTLK.

THE GREATEST SVR RISK THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR
TORNADOES...SHOULD FOCUS ALONG SFC WARM FRONT THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM
N OF DRT AND W OF JCT ENE TO NEAR CLL. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ADVANCE
SLOWLY NWD THROUGH SAT MORNING...WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE POSSIBLY
FORMING ALONG IT NEAR AUS/SAT EARLY SAT. THE WAVE COULD REACH THE
LFK AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

COMBINATION OF RICH MOISTURE...LONG/HOOKED HODOGRAPHS /PER AREA
VWPS/...CONFLUENT NATURE OF 925-850 MB FLOW...AND PROSPECTS FOR AT
LEAST MODEST SFC HEATING SUGGEST A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL LOW-LVL MESOS/TORNADOES INVOF MCS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS NOW SE OF AUS. HEATING AND CONFLUENCE ALSO MAY SPAWN A
COUPLE SMALLER/ISOLD SUPERCELLS S AND E OF THE MCS. THESE CELLS ALSO
COULD SPAWN A COUPLE TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
TO THE S...A NON-ZERO TORNADO/DMGG WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH
BROKEN SSW-NNE BAND OF STORMS NOW APPROACHING THE BRO AREA.

FARTHER W/SW...MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR W OF UPR-LVL
CLOUD SHIELD COVERING THE SE HALF OF TX. THIS AREA ALSO WILL
EXPERIENCE SOMEWHAT GREATER HEIGHT FALLS AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH EDGES
EWD. THESE FACTORS...IN ADDITION TO TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...COULD
INITIATE SCTD AFTN/EVE STORMS FROM NRN MEXICO NNE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE INTO WRN PARTS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY. WITH 500 MB SW FLOW
AOA 50 KTS AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE /PW AROUND 1...50 INCHES/ FOR
ROBUST UPDRAFTS...SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND MAY
OCCUR. THESE MAY MERGE INTO AN EWD-MOVING LINE OR CLUSTER
TNGT...EXTENDING A SVR RISK ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND...EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE E TX CSTL PLN. THE STORMS COULD POSE AN
INCREASING TORNADO THREAT LATE TNGT OR EARLY SAT OVER E CNTRL/SE TX
AND PERHAPS FAR SW LA AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE DEVELOPS...AND DEEP
SW FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH THE CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF UPR TROUGH.

..CORFIDI/KERR.. 10/30/2015
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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sau27 wrote:Is the area of concern for us the system coming from the south around Corpus, or the system drenching the Hill country right now, or both?
Actually a bit of a combination. Look carefully to our SW across Mexico. There is a tropical moisture plume that extends well out into the Eastern Pacific.

Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
1135 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT ...BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...
WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD START AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAZOS VALLEY. THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED EARLIER FOR THOSE AREAS SHOULD THIS OCCUR.

* GROUNDS REMAIN MOIST FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND. THIS
MEANS THAT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEAVY RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES. STORMS MAY PRODUCE 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOUR WHICH IF STORMS
PERSIST...FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR. MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
FLOODING WILL BE TONIGHT PEAKING FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT
7AM. HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SLOW
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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Tornado passed through Bastrop area. Hook echo NE of Bastrop headed toward Rockdale. Rain wrapped.
unome
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DoctorMu wrote:Tornado passed through Bastrop area. Hook echo NE of Bastrop headed toward Rockdale. Rain wrapped.
thanks for posting here !

http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/p ... loop.shtml
Image

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... S&loop=yes
Image
unome
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DoctorMu wrote:Tornado passed through Bastrop area. Hook echo NE of Bastrop headed toward Rockdale. Rain wrapped.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamaps/hgx-is.gif

TORNADO WARNING
TXC051-301800-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0031.151030T1740Z-151030T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1240 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1240 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CALDWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALDWELL...DEANVILLE AND CHRIESMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3069 9671 3070 9667 3050 9649 3038 9679
3039 9679 3039 9680 3043 9685 3043 9686
3050 9691 3051 9690 3053 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 237DEG 34KT 3049 9679

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

DR
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DoctorMu
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Storm chasers have spotted rotation just N of Hwy 21 heading toward Caldwell, perhaps slightly north.
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DoctorMu
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unome wrote:
DoctorMu wrote:Tornado passed through Bastrop area. Hook echo NE of Bastrop headed toward Rockdale. Rain wrapped.
thanks for posting here !

http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/p ... loop.shtml
Image


Thanks!

Concerned about the slight turn E that would head this severe storm with rotation potentially towards Bryan.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... S&loop=yes
Last edited by DoctorMu on Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
unome
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DoctorMu wrote:Storm chasers have spotted rotation just N of Hwy 21 heading toward Caldwell, perhaps slightly north.
Bob Pack streaming live at https://tvnweather.com/live
unome
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TORNADO WARNING
TXC041-051-301845-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0032.151030T1808Z-151030T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
108 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 107 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CALDWELL...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...CALDWELL AND KYLE FIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 9674 3073 9662 3073 9660 3071 9660
3070 9656 3074 9646 3079 9642 3083 9641
3062 9629 3048 9666 3063 9679
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 231DEG 27KT 3061 9666

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

46
unome
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he quit streaming for whatever reason
unome wrote:
DoctorMu wrote:Storm chasers have spotted rotation just N of Hwy 21 heading toward Caldwell, perhaps slightly north.
Bob Pack streaming live at https://tvnweather.com/live
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DoctorMu
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Tornado warning issued for Brazos Co until 1:45 pm.
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