December 2015 -Year Ends As One Of Wettest On Record

[ticka1]

Will winter arrive on schedule? Or will we continue the "Stepping Down" pattern? Bringing another year to close for us here at KHOU weather forum.

[srainhoutx]

The Updated Experimental Climate Prediction Center Week 3 to Week 4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook that carries us into Mid December suggests cold and wet will be the theme across our Region.

[srainhoutx]

We are beginning to see some solutions in the Long Range guidance suggesting a much further South tracking storm system with a vigorous cold core upper low transitioning across Mexico and the Southern half of Texas. This feature appears to possibly have some impressive dynamics and could bring a real threat of Wintry Weather across portions of Texas and possibly into Louisiana.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8+ Outlook suggests our Region will be cold wet.

[srainhoutx]

The Friday Update from the Climate Prediction Center Experimental Week 3 and Week 4 Outlook continues to advertise a typical El Nino Pattern across our Region with a chilly and unsettled weather regime. The ensembles suggest that a progressive split flow pattern with frequent upper troughs moving across the Region tapping into Eastern Pacific moisture.

[wxman57]

If you've liked today's weather you'll really love tomorrow's - low to mid 50s and steady light rain.

[cperk]

If you've liked today's weather you'll really love tomorrow's - low to mid 50s and steady light rain.

I like.

[Katdaddy]

Can we bring back Summer?! However if it must be cold then it better snow or back to the 90s.

[srainhoutx]

Not sure we will actually see much sunshine the first few days of December. Looks like more chilly, raw and wet weather may be ahead as yet another upper air disturbance traverses across the Desert SW into Texas mid to late week.

[ticka1]

bring on the COLD...enough of this heat!!!

[Katdaddy]

A messy SW flow aloft continues while cold air at the surface filters S to the NW GOM. Light rains moving across SE TX this evening with temps in the 40s and 50s feeling like it should for this time of year even though I love the 90s.

[srainhoutx]

Briefing from Jeff regarding Trinity and Brazos River Flooding:

Heavy rainfall over N TX over the last 3 days of 6-9 inches has led to major flooding on the East and West Forks of the Trinity River and a significant flood wave on the upper Brazos River.

At 912am this morning a levee on the Trinity River at Rosser breached in Kaufman County. The river at Rosser is 1 ft below record flood levels and widespread significant flooding is in progress over portions of Ellis and Kaufman Counties due to the levee breach and flooding of the mainstem river.

Trinity River:
Significant flood wave will move downstream over the next week reaching SE TX near Crockett late this week and Lake Livingston shortly after. Rises of the river to above flood stage are likely with moderate and possibly major flooding. Gate operations are ongoing at Lake Livingston with a current release of 15,000cfs and additional releases will be required.

Brazos River:
Flood wave is passing Glen Rose and moving downstream. Lake Granbury is currently releasing 42,000cfs. Downstream flood control lakes Whitney and Aquilla are just slightly into their flood pools and will be able to absorb the downstream moving flood wave. Releases on the Navasota River and from Lake Somerville along with upstream releases on the mainstem of the Brazos will lead to a significant rise in the lower Brazos River from Bryan to Richmond this week. At this time no locations below Waco are forecast to reach flood stage.

River Levels and Forecasts:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/

[Katdaddy]

Messy SW flow aloft continues with the next disturbance expected Tuesday night and Wednesday with additional rain chances. The sun finally returns Thursday through Saturday followed by increasing clouds ahead of the next storm system.

[srainhoutx]

Are sensible weather pattern is that of a typical El Nino where the coldest air is bottled up across the North Pole into Siberia. The teleconnection indices suggest no real change in this pattern through at least mid December. In a split flow regime across North America, embedded shortwaves (upper air disturbances) will continue to race along the noisy sub tropical jet across the SW and Southern Plains where the coldest temperature anomalies associated with the various disturbances bring Pacific moisture into the Pacific NW, Northern California into the Desert SW and the Southern Plains. The pattern looks very progressive across our Region with cold fronts arriving every few days and occasional sunny, but cool days. Typically in such an El Nino pattern our Region is cooler compared to normal across the Lower 48 and clouds associated with the various fast moving storms keep us cloudy and cool and somewhat damp. This pattern should persist throughout the month of December with an occasional shot of much chillier air dropping into the Great Basin and the Plains. Those looking for very cold air will likely have to wait until late in the month into January when the upper air pattern across the Northern Hemisphere changes and potentially brings a good shot of Arctic Air into our source Region of NW Canada and the current pattern breaks down the polar vortex currently situated across Siberia and Eurasia.

[Katdaddy]

Deep WSW flow aloft will continue to bring disturbances across SE TX through tonight before decreasing clouds on Wednesday followed by sunny days Thursday through Saturday morning before increasing clouds begin to return followed low rain chances on Sunday.

[GBinGrimes]

This El Nino pattern is proving to be boring and miserable. I love living in the country but the county roads of gravel and caliche are a muckity-muck mess. At least we have several consecutive days of sunshine in the forecast (including Saturday...YAY!) and that will be VERY welcome.

Ready for something to buckle the Polar Vortex and send some "not sensible in the least" multiple blasts of arctic-ness down this direction.

The words learned from a family member long ago are so true, "what you want and what you get are two different things".

[djjordan]

Well this might give you some hope as we near Christmas.........

By the way this is just a discussion starter... Still too far away to predict this IMO

From our friend Eric Berger:

I'm going to get crucified for this because some people will look at this and say OMG HE PREDICTED A WHITE CHRISTMAS AND THEN IT DIDN'T HAPPEN. But here goes, anyway.

We're a long way out, but some of the seasonal modeling is suggesting temperatures will be quite a bit colder than normal during the Dec. 19-29th period. As in 8 to 10 degrees F colder than normal (see map). If we continue this wet fall/winter pattern at the time it's possible parts of Texas would see a white Christmas. Does that include Houston? Probably not. However it's certainly the region's best chance since that magical Christmas Eve in 2004.

[BlueJay]

I am ready for some SUNSHINE!

[GBinGrimes]

A glimmer of hope! Thanks for sharing DJ!

[harpman]

What's fun to see is that it spills over into Louisiana!