February 2016: Quiet Warm Weather To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

ESE winds kicked in early this morning ahead of a shortwave diving SE from Colorado and kept the temperatures in NW Harris County from dropping below 34F. Update for 7:00AM...we hit 31F with some scattered frost on the roof tops. The upper air disturbance and some phasing with an upper trough extending into Canada may bring a chance of light rain tonight into tomorrow. This system is moving quickly and should be out of our hair for Saturday night Mardi Gras festivities on Galveston Island.

A Coastal low looks to organize S of New Orleans on Sunday and turn NE up the Atlantic Seaboard as a Miller B Winter Storm forms Monday near the Delmarva Region of the Mid Atlantic bringing another snow storm to the NE. Cold air filters S into the Northern Gulf Coast States giving Houston a glancing shot of colder air Monday into Tuesday. The dry conditions look to continue for the next week to 10 days raising wildfire concerns across the Lone Star State next week.

[BlueJay]

Frosty cold this morning with a low of 33F.
I don't like the thought of Texas wildfires.

[DoctorMu]

Frosty cold this morning with a low of 33F.
I don't like the thought of Texas wildfires.

26°F in Conroe and at freezing IMBY.

Bizarre to see trend toward a wildfire risk during a strong El Nino winter and series of deluges during Oct-Dec.

I've never been a huge fan about analogs in complex systems, unless it's a fractal. This year is a classic example.

[srainhoutx]

Lots of pea sized hail with the cold pocket aloft in NW Harris County associated with the upper low moving over the area with elevated thunderstorms.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
506 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HARRIS TX-
506 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWEST HARRIS COUNTY...

AT 505 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CARVERDALE...OR OVER JERSEY VILLAGE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN PASADENA...NORTHWESTERN BAYTOWN...DEER PARK...HUMBLE...
GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK
VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...SPRING
VALLEY...BARRETT...GREATER FIFTH WARD...FOURTH WARD...SPRING BRANCH
WEST...NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...SECOND WARD...GREATER EASTWOOD...GREATER
GREENSPOINT AND DOWNTOWN HOUSTON.

[Katdaddy]

Clearing skies this morning as the fast moving line of showers and thunderstorms have moved into the NW GOM and to the E of the Houston-Galveston areas. A beautiful day on the way.

[srainhoutx]

A quick update this morning regarding what we may expect in the mid to late February period for our Region. Currently a Significant Stratospheric Warming event is underway across the Polar Region, but most of the coldest air will be to our N and E due to the strong Western US Ridge associated with a +PNA (Pacific North American). The Arctic Oscillation is also positive as of this morning, but the ensembles are suggesting it will crash into negative territory as we approach Valentines Day. The PNA is expect to greatly relax toward a neutral state during that time frame as well as the MJO amplified orbit moving toward the Western Pacific. Typically the MJO should move into a Phase 8 Region suggesting a wetter phase for the Eastern Pacific/Western Hemisphere as we get into the mid to late February period. The models have been hinting of a big Spring like storm system in the 8 to 10 day range across the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains, so there may be some hope for a return to a wetter pattern for those lacking in the rainfall department. Enjoy the weekend and be aware of the elevated fire danger next week as those dry West to Southwesterly winds further dry us out. A wintertime elevated wildfire danger is not all that uncommon as vegetation has died of due to freezing temperatures across the Lone Star State. Hopefully the longer range pattern indicators are not a computer model mirage, but a potential real shot of a return of precipitation.

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[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Monday morning until 700pm Monday for all of SE TX and much of central and south TX.

Upgrade to Red Flag Warning for portions or all of the current watch area will be possible later today or early Monday.

A strong cold front will move across the region late tonight and early Monday morning…passing off the upper TX coast before daybreak…ushering in strong offshore winds and a very dry air mass. Weather indicators are strongly pointing toward elevated or critical fire weather conditions on Monday while vegetation and soil moisture are more marginal. Onset of gusty NW winds will begin after sunrise on Monday and winds will rapidly increase by mid to late morning as solar heating allows stronger momentum transport from aloft. Mixing of the air mass will drive dewpoints into the 20’s and possibly 10’s over the region with RH values falling to less than 25% during the early afternoon hours. Wind speeds will average 15-20mph with gust of 25-30mph from about 1100am until 400pm. Strong winds and low RH certainly push the region into elevated if not critical fire conditions.

Soil moisture continues to be average to above average over nearly all of SE TX except for a small area in Brazoria County and then SW of Matagorda Bay where rains have been much less widespread this winter. Recent freezes have curred fine fuels and these fuels are ready to burn in the right conditions even though larger ladder fuels show good moisture content. The general threat for rapid wildfire spread will be confined to tall grass areas where fine fuels are dormant. Strong dry NW winds will help to dry these fine fuels quickly on Monday morning even though soil moisture content is high. KBDI values are running 0-200 over nearly all of SE TX with the exception of portions of Jackson and Calhoun Counties where values are in the 300 range. Overall these values indicate fairly wet soil conditions.

Will focus the highest risk for wildfire development and spread west of I-45 with the highest potential being in a north to south corridor from west of College Station to Matagorda Bay where the stronger winds, lowest RH, and driest conditions overlap. Think cold air advection may help offset some of the dry air mixing on Monday, but the general thinking is that models are likely a few degrees too warm on the dewpoints which would support lower afternoon RH during maximum mixing of the low level air mass…possibly into the upper 10’s.

Recent experience with wildfire outbreaks in SE TX in 2011 and late summer 2015 tend to indicate higher potential for large wildfire spread during much warmer temperatures (70-85) and KBDI values of 600 or greater.

SPC Fire Weather Outlook for Monday:

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, warm, windy, and dry was not what we were looking for post-Tuesday as a part of our strong El Nino winter.

Hoping for a miraculous edging back of the Western ridge...


Tree planting plans on hold.

[Andrew]

Conditions will certainly be dry tomorrow. RH in parts of the state will be in the single digits. Meanwhile, dewpoints will be in the 20s too. Certainly pretty impressive for anytime of the year for this part of Texas.

[Ptarmigan]

Frosty cold this morning with a low of 33F.
I don't like the thought of Texas wildfires.

26°F in Conroe and at freezing IMBY.

Bizarre to see trend toward a wildfire risk during a strong El Nino winter and series of deluges during Oct-Dec.

I've never been a huge fan about analogs in complex systems, unless it's a fractal. This year is a classic example.

When I use analogs, I like to use multiple analog years/seasons. I have seen a dry winters in strong El Nino like in 1896-1897.

El Nino is like background noise. It does play a role.

[Katdaddy]

Red Flag Warning issued for potential rapid fire growth due to dry vegetation, very low dew points, very low humidity, and strong NW winds behind a cold front today. Wind Advisories have also been issued for a large portion of Texas. Sunny weather to prevail all week.

[Katdaddy]

Beautiful sunny weather to continue across much of TX through Saturday. Temps will slowly rise into the 70s for highs across SE TX by late this week. Elevated fire danger will exist for another day. The next chance for some rain arrives next Sunday into Monday.

[BiggieSmalls]

Soo winter is likely over, even in DFW, barring an event in very late Feb - early March....running out of time though

Soon it will be 90+ every day, making me wonder why people like when its close to 80 in February later this week

[srainhoutx]

Soo winter is likely over, even in DFW, barring an event in very late Feb - early March....running out of time though

Soon it will be 90+ every day, making me wonder why people like when its close to 80 in February later this week

And only 2 years ago on this date we were preparing for our 4th Winter Weather/Freezing Rain event in SE Texas. Yep, that's ice accumulating on the roofs and the trees. We have to remember we live in Texas, not New England.

I wouldn't be surprised is Old Man Winter makes a last visit late February, just in time for the Trail Riders and the Houston Rodeo. We also seem to have some chilly/messy weather when the Rodeo comes to town.

[BiggieSmalls]

Hope youre right!

[DoctorMu]

Incredibly low dew points in the single digits and teens in CLL. Feels great with the sun out and temps rising to the 50s.

Desiccation...hopefully not incineration. May use this as an excuse to test the sprinkler system and see which plastic head pops out of the ground like a geyser.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Red Flag Warning for Austin, Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston, Grimes, Harris, Houston, Jackson, Liberty, Madison, Matagorda, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker, Waller, Washington, Wharton Counties until 6:00 PM CST.

[unome]

I wouldn't be surprised is Old Man Winter makes a last visit late February, just in time for the Trail Riders and the Houston Rodeo. We also seem to have some chilly/messy weather when the Rodeo comes to town.

had a belly laugh when I read this because I seriously do not remember any year since I've lived here that the weather DIDN'T turn cold and nasty at some point for the trail ride or bbq or rodeo festivities... have to give all those folks who participate & make it great some kudos !

[srainhoutx]

Some of the indicators we look to in the longer range are really keying in on a potential wet pattern developing as we near the end of February and begin March. The MJO forecasts are beginning to suggest a very high amplified orbit into a wet Phase 7/8 across the Pacific that could bring a returned of an active Pacific stream of tropical moisture with lowering pressures across California, The Desert SW and Texas. In the shorter range, the guidance is suggesting a stalling frontal boundary across SE Texas Saturday into Sunday as an upper air disturbance embedded in a deepening trough across the Eastern half of the United States sets up. This disturbance should bring a chance of rain to our area and possibly a lot of wintery weather to our N and E as temperature anomalies near the -20 degree range. The coldest air of the Winter Season appears poised to spill out of Canada in the Upper Mid West/Great Lakes/Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys and possibly into Florida this weekend.