March 2016 - Progressive Changeable Weather To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center continues with a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Increases to High Risk for East Texas/Western Louisiana.

[djmike]

Whoa? Wait? What? ....just woke up for work and nothing falling and nothing but light mist overnight. Did the models miss the bullseye areas by well, A LOT? Or is this thing a lot slower than originally thought and it hasn't shifted eastward yet? Looks like the main rain shield that was meant for SETX stayed west and now north. Is there another round after this one that will be further east? I was ready for a treacherous drive to work.

[mcheer23]

Watching some storms come up from Brownsville

[Katdaddy]

Heavy rain and thunderstorms have occurred across portions of SE TX overnight and the early morning hours. The slow moving upper level low will extend the heavy rainfall threat through Thursday morning with unsettled weather possible through Saturday. The potential remains for 3-7" rains over the next 12-24 hours but thankfully the severe weather did not materialize over S Central and SE TX yesterday afternoon or during the early morning hours. From this morning's Houston-Galveston The Flash Flood Watch to continue until 6 PM. In addition some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today. From this morning's Houston-Galveston AFD:

ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A FAVORABLE REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS OVER SE TEXAS.

Remain weather aware and do not drive through high water if encountered later today.

[unome]

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/7 ... 5654972416


@NWSHouston

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for NW Harris and SE Montgomery Co until 715AM. Damaging winds possible. #houwx #txwx

[unome]

all TX weather alerts http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/tx.php?x=1

[Cromagnum]

Busted and not even close

[ticka1]

Busted and not even close

I agree. The HRRR Model was off on this one. Everything is north and east of us here in Houston area. And all the rain has moved out of the area for this morning.

Don't forget folks - daylight savings time changes this weekend! Spring forward an hour!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

To be fair, the HRRR was never really consistent yesterday. It couldnt get a solid grasp on the dynamics of the storm. Possibly this has something to do with the lack of air samples from Mexico.Either way, it was all over the place yesterday afternoon with every single run. I will say this though, we have alot of football left with this system as long as there is moisture being pumped up and there are boundaries over the SE Tx region. Could create a dangerous situation very quickly.

[nuby3]

timing is off but I don't think this is over yet

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[djmike]

Now I'm confused. Several of you are saying this was a complete bust. Meteorologists here in the golden triangle are still saying everything is still a go and will progress eastward and with heating the storms will begin to fire up and fill in to our area. Is the system still expected to bring us the flooding rains or not now? Someone please clarify. Personally I feel the system only has slowed and instead of the main event happening overnight instead will happen today noon and beyond.

[unome]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0195.html




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S INTO SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091329Z - 091530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PERIODIC STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND COASTAL TX THROUGH MORNING...WITH WIND AND
HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
ESPECIALLY OVER SERN TX INTO SWRN LA LATER TODAY.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD JUST
AHEAD AND ALONG AN ADVANCING FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM NW OF HOUSTON INTO
NWRN LA. THESE STORMS HAVE ONLY SHOWN PERIODIC STRONG CORES...AND
LITTLE OR NO ROTATION/MESOCYCLONES DESPITE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
IT IS LIKELY THAT LOW-LEVEL STRETCHING IS FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO
RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW THE LFC. HOWEVER...A
CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY...SHOULD FORCING BECOME MORE FAVORABLE EITHER ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF...WITH POCKETS OF HEATING...OR ANY MESO LOW THAT CAN
FORM.

TO THE S...MORE ROBUST STORMS WITH HIGH ECHO TOPS AND HAIL CORES ARE
DEVELOPING IN CLUSTERS ACROSS DEEP S TX...WITH MOVEMENT PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER FLOW IN A NNEWD DIRECTION. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS AS
THEY CONTINUE NNEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND POSSIBLY
EVENTUALLY PIVOTING NEWD TOWARD SERN TX WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES PERIODIC STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR EXISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE S TX ACTIVITY.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 03/09/2016


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON 26109846 28149911 29349797 31789470 31749388 31259324
30499312 29619354 29089485 28439606 27819689 27019723
26319742 25909770 26109846

[nuby3]

Now I'm confused. Several of you are saying this was a complete bust. Meteorologists here in the golden triangle are still saying everything is still a go and will progress eastward and with heating the storms will begin to fire up and fill in to our area. Is the system still expected to bring us the flooding rains or not now? Someone please clarify. Personally I feel the system only has slowed and instead of the main event happening overnight instead will happen today noon and beyond.

I believe what you believe - the storm is slower

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

radar from corpus

[jasons2k]

Bust on timing, for sure, but not necessarily on rainfall. It's definitely not over.

There is a front draped just NW of the US-59 corridor. The ULL is still well to our SW. That's pretty concerning and will set the stage for heavy rainfall to focus along it today. FWIW the setup we have this morning looks a lot like what was modeled a few days ago, with a stationary front on top of us, except it's a day later - Wednesday instead of Tuesday.

[unome]

Little Cypress Creek at Becker Road

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDetail/Index/1230

Stream Elevation for sensor 1233 is 192.88'
Reading on 3/9/2016 7:09 AM

(top of bank is less than 195')

[srainhoutx]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming for Jackson, Wharton, Ft. Bend, Matagorda & Brazoria until noon.

[unome]

@NWSHouston

NWSHouston Retweeted NWS Severe Tstorm

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Brazoria, Ft Bend, Jackson, Matagorda, Wharton until 12 PM #txwx


https://twitter.com/NWSSevereTstorm/sta ... 7957354496



@NWSSevereTstorm

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of Texas until 12 PM CST

[tireman4]

Folks,

This is not over. Just the timing, like Jason said. We are still under the gun later. Please stay weather aware until the all clear has sounded.

[srainhoutx]

Upper trough/low still digging S into Mexico. That was not expect and tends to raise an eyebrow concerning what we may see later today into tonight. Jason is correct. The models were simply too quick with the various feature moving toward Texas.

[tireman4]

To add to what Jason and Srain are saying, read...


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
804 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED VALID UNTIL 12 NOON FOR
BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...AND WHARTON COUNTIES.
STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND REGION AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
MAIN HAZARDS ARE TORNADOES AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE MAINLY SCT TSRA FROM
WEST OF KSGR TO KCXO/KUTS. CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH AROUND 35KTS. BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION SO FAR
WILL BE THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT FOR THIS
AXIS OF CONVECTION TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND IMPACT KIAH/KHOU
THROUGH 18Z. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY WITH JUST
ISO TSRA POSSIBLE SO WILL MENTION THAT AS VCTS IN TAFS. SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN HELPFUL BUT HRRR HAS BEEN THE
ONLY MODEL TO SHOW THE FRONT THROUGH KCLL AND COULD REACH KUTS
LATER TODAY. CIGS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT COULD DECREASE INTO IFR CATEGORY
AFTER 00-02Z. GFS/NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...WILL GO
WITH VCTS AND IFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATE THUR MORNING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS OVER SE TEXAS. WILL
KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP FOCUS THE RAINFALL. THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN SAN
ANTONIO AND PALESTINE. A SECOND BOUNDARY WAS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED
BY THE SYSTEM...AND THE NAEFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
PW/S ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 50 KNOTS WILL HELP
DEVELOP STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BEST ESTIMATES ARE THAT BETWEEN 3
AND 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THE ECMWF DOES NOT
BRING THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FRIDAY. THE MODEL THEN
SHEARS THE LOW OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVERHEAD
THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PW/S OF ABOUT 1.8
OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY.

40

MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING SO
THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM/12Z. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 3PM AS ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST DUE TO THE LONG PERSISTENT FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY BUT DECREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY. LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.

ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL REACH
ABOUT 1.5 FEET TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND IMPACTS OVER THE
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY.