Wx Infinity Forums

davidiowx wrote:

ticka1 wrote:what does LLJ mean?

Lower Level Jet stream

And we have a WINNAHHHH!!!! You win an extra 3/4" of RAIN!!!!

Part Deux, we've been mostly dry slotted up on College Station so far.

...but that could end in robust fashion tonight.

Did I just hear David Paul lower the amount of rain expected?

I am starting to smell bust on this event. HGX isn't impressed with the models either. Maybe no more than a couple inches from a progressive line moving through later? I don't see anything close to 7+ inches verifying.....

Models are having a real hard time with the upper level low movement. I wouldn't be surprised if the real action didn't start late tonight of even tomorrow morning. Hrrr is going for the 3 to 4 inch across the houston area still but that could happen anywhere. It then leaves some other places farther west relatively dry.

Seems the ULL is pushing more Nward, instead of NE.

I actually think this storm is behaving just like it was forecasted to. Development seems to be starting as I type this. Line of T-storms coming through Sugar land now, seeing development near Bryan/College Station and it would seem that it will fill in as we move through the overnight in SE Texas. There is also a lot of wind energy with this as well. The house creaks with the wind gusts.

djjordan wrote:I actually think this storm is behaving just like it was forecasted to. Development seems to be starting as I type this. Line of T-storms coming through Sugar land now, seeing development near Bryan/College Station and it would seem that it will fill in as we move through the overnight in SE Texas.

I agree with you. I'm paying close attention to the areas SW of Houston. I'm thinking it should start to fill in as the night goes on. Just my opinion, of course.

winds are very much picking up in southwest Houston - lightning/thunder but not much rain yet.

DJJ
I agree as well.

I just didn't expect to see that dry area in between us and San Antonio.

Here in Sugar Land.. Lots and lots of lightning. Thunder in the distance as well. Very windy with on and off rain.. Love laying in bed with the flashes of light every 5-10 seconds.. Things appear to be starting, albeit slowly.

Hmm.. somehow I don't think the bricks holding down the "we-are-getting-our-previous-storm-damaged-roof-repaired-next-Thursday" protection tarp are going to survive the night.

A lot of unstable air around Pearland tonight.

djjordan wrote:I actually think this storm is behaving just like it was forecasted to. Development seems to be starting as I type this. Line of T-storms coming through Sugar land now, seeing development near Bryan/College Station and it would seem that it will fill in as we move through the overnight in SE Texas. There is also a lot of wind energy with this as well. The house creaks with the wind gusts.

Exactly right. Entraining setting up near Caldwell. I won't hazard to estimates amounts and who "wins" the lottery, but there will be significant rain in SE Texas tonight.

Betting the forecasts overshot by about a foot of rain. We might get an inch or two outta this.

Surface winds backing to the NE helping to fire off a line of storms to our north... shows how very unstable the atmosphere is becoming in central and east Texas tonight. Looks like some weak convection trying to get going in Waller and Washington counties now. Watching it, and growing concerned that some parts of our area may get a bunch of rain tonight through the morning. Cheers all!

Thank you for the reply David.

Thanks David Paul for the post. We all know weather is not an exact science and that is what makes it challenging. You have been a wealth of information today and tonight and on social media. Thanks again.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXZ195-196-090630-
BURLESON TX-BRAZOS TX-
1151 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL BURLESON AND WEST
CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CST...

AT 1151 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES NORTHEAST OF CALDWELL...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
BURLESON AND WEST CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.