April 2016 Recap: Regional Flood/Severe Weather

[ticka1]

Is there anymore rain forecasted this weekend or we in for clearing skies and sunshine?

[Andrew]

Nailed it.

When nobody expects it or really talks about it we get hammered.

When its been hyped up all week nothing happens.

Figures.

I definitely wouldn't call 8+ inches over eastern Texas and the NE extent of SE Texas a bust. I never understand why people say it is a bust or nothing happens just because the most populated region only got an inch or two. The QPF totals were actually pretty well mapped, just further to the northeast than expected. We constantly warn on here that we do not have the capabilities to constantly and accurately predict mesoscale based rain events. If that line would have developed another 50 miles further south it would have been a totally different attitude.

[nuby3]

Thankfully for those that were flooded out of their homes we dodged the worst of the Heavy Rainfall. I do see that there have been 5 deaths, some children in East Texas from this event...so far. Not sure "hype" is a word I would use regarding what was posted here in this forum or even from the forecasters and the local Professional Meteorologists we look to for advice, guidance and direction. There was a LOT of sensitivity given due to so many folks being impacted April 17-18th and are still reeling with recovery. I personally will err on the side of caution when we see a very complex and complicated pattern. Some may call it a bust...and that is fine. But most reasonable folks know when weather worries come our way, they can get the most reliable and accurate information Humanly possible right here on the KHOU Regional Weather Forum. Enjoy the day!


[/i]

I was more just thinking of my own opinions and expectations of what's gonna happen than what you guys were saying. relative to what I personally was expecting, it didn't unfold nearly the way I thought it would. not that it's all that surprising, I suck at this

[txflagwaver]

Glad we dodged the heavy rain for the most part in our area... Maybe I CAN get the yard done tomorrow

[Cromagnum]

Nailed it.

When nobody expects it or really talks about it we get hammered.

When its been hyped up all week nothing happens.

Figures.

I definitely wouldn't call 8+ inches over eastern Texas and the NE extent of SE Texas a bust. I never understand why people say it is a bust or nothing happens just because the most populated region only got an inch or two. The QPF totals were actually pretty well mapped, just further to the northeast than expected. We constantly warn on here that we do not have the capabilities to constantly and accurately predict mesoscale based rain events. If that line would have developed another 50 miles further south it would have been a totally different attitude.

So the forecast was correct even though it verified somewhere else...got it.

[Texaspirate11]

I always go my the mantra "I'd rather you laugh at me then I cry over you."
Thanks to our mets for keeping us safe.
Never complain when I wake up and there is roof over my head and my peeps are safe.


Gentle rain failing now at the bay.
Thanks for you do on this forum.
On to the next system.

[Heat Miser]

Where's the beef?
The movers I hired almost cancelled on us last night due to the expected "event" in our area. You know we can't ensure that your furniture etc. won't get wet, we still charge by the hour regardless of heavy rain yada yada.
Told him to come on because we'll have a passing shower with maybe a rumble of thunder. Incredible how people get after a flood, a shower is the next Noah's Ark event. Movers will be here at 1300 and it looks like perfect timing, no indication so far of anything of significance building to our west at the moment.
For the Houston metro area I guess we dodged a bullet, which is fine with me.
Prayers to the families affected in north/east/northeast Texas, maybe far north/northeast southeast Texas.

[wxman57]

The GFS suggests that the rain threat is only beginning. It has a weak boundary across Houston through Tuesday. There's definitely a potential for heavy rain tomorrow afternoon/evening into Tuesday.

[Andrew]

Nailed it.

When nobody expects it or really talks about it we get hammered.

When its been hyped up all week nothing happens.

Figures.

I definitely wouldn't call 8+ inches over eastern Texas and the NE extent of SE Texas a bust. I never understand why people say it is a bust or nothing happens just because the most populated region only got an inch or two. The QPF totals were actually pretty well mapped, just further to the northeast than expected. We constantly warn on here that we do not have the capabilities to constantly and accurately predict mesoscale based rain events. If that line would have developed another 50 miles further south it would have been a totally different attitude.

So the forecast was correct even though it verified somewhere else...got it.

I think the general consensus across the board that where the heavier rain bands were going to setup was something we wouldn't know until it actually started to happen. So yes, I would say the forecast actually verified pretty well. The NWS for the most part had most of the precipitation further to the northeast away from SE Texas and that verified. The moderate risk of excessive rain/ concern for flooding was due to the sensitive grounds and reservoirs across Harris County in particular. Did Houston and points to the south receive less than expected, yes that is true, but the pockets of 8+ inches still occurred.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS suggests that the rain threat is only beginning. It has a weak boundary across Houston through Tuesday. There's definitely a potential for heavy rain tomorrow afternoon/evening into Tuesday.

Thanks wxman57. Since this is the last day of the month and particularly since you've already stated in the May Topic that you are not seeing much of a change in the upper air pattern in the days ahead. Let it serve as a reminder that we are in a transitioning period from El Nino to La Nina when we typically see the potential for continued storminess. In fact the overnight Euro and GFS Ensembles advertise the first 10 to 15 days of May could be rather unsettled with more storm systems diving out of the Gulf of Alaska and the continuation of a Western Trough.

[Katdaddy]

Be very glad the CAP held over much of SE TX the last 20 hours and we did not have severe weather and flooding rains. NE portions of SE TX had 1-4" overnight. This morning's outflow boundary had a nice shelf cloud followed by some light rain and sunshine. Flash Flood Watch and Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be dropped for SE TX shortly. Only some widely scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon along the front so a nice day overall on the way before the potential for more heavy rains late this weekend into early next week

[Heat Miser]

The GFS suggests that the rain threat is only beginning. It has a weak boundary across Houston through Tuesday. There's definitely a potential for heavy rain tomorrow afternoon/evening into Tuesday.

That will work. Should be moved way before that time. Just feel for those poor golfers that cancelled their tee times today and those courses that lost all that revenue. I'll bet there's some mad scrambling going on now, pardon the pun.

[unome]

WPC's Storm Summary for Central U.S. Heavy Rain and Snow:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_sto ... hive.shtml


and the more I visit it, the more I like their new, experimental "home page" http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/para

[Andrew]

Large loop, but very cool 1min rapid update from GOES 14 showing the precipitation this morning across the region. Take note of the gravity waves over Louisiana into Arkansas.

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ind ... eight=1200

[houstonia]

Two simple questions. Please respond in layman terms: how long does the transition from El Niño to La Niña take and how will either the transition or La Niña Impact us for hurricane season?

The GFS suggests that the rain threat is only beginning. It has a weak boundary across Houston through Tuesday. There's definitely a potential for heavy rain tomorrow afternoon/evening into Tuesday Let it serve as a reminder that we are in a transitioning period from El Nino to La Nina when we typically see the potential for continued storminess. In fact the overnight Euro and GFS Ensembles advertise the first 10 to 15 days of May could be rather unsettled with more storm systems diving out of the Gulf of Alaska and the continuation of a Western Trough.

[ticka1]

Two simple questions. Please respond in layman terms: how long does the transition from El Niño to La Niña take and how will either the transition or La Niña Impact us for hurricane season?

The GFS suggests that the rain threat is only beginning. It has a weak boundary across Houston through Tuesday. There's definitely a potential for heavy rain tomorrow afternoon/evening into Tuesday Let it serve as a reminder that we are in a transitioning period from El Nino to La Nina when we typically see the potential for continued storminess. In fact the overnight Euro and GFS Ensembles advertise the first 10 to 15 days of May could be rather unsettled with more storm systems diving out of the Gulf of Alaska and the continuation of a Western Trough.

great questions houstonia

[srainhoutx]

That is a great question and in the coming days we will have a Topic covering what we may expect this Hurricane Season and why this time of transitioning Global patterns is potentially important to our backyard in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf. I hope that wxman57 will opine his thoughts as well. Stay tuned for that Topic. I will post it on the Main Page of the Forum and pin it.

[houstonia]

Thank you srainhoutx!

[Ounce]

I think the mets, almost mets, and wannabe mets on this Board do a great job keeping us up to date. Sometimes, it doesn't go as it's forecasted, but that doesn't mean they were wrong as Mother Nature had her own plans and chose not to share.

[DoctorMu]

The GFS suggests that the rain threat is only beginning. It has a weak boundary across Houston through Tuesday. There's definitely a potential for heavy rain tomorrow afternoon/evening into Tuesday Let it serve as a reminder that we are in a transitioning period from El Nino to La Nina when we typically see the potential for continued storminess. In fact the overnight Euro and GFS Ensembles advertise the first 10 to 15 days of May could be rather unsettled with more storm systems diving out of the Gulf of Alaska and the continuation of a Western Trough.

We won't be able to get away with disintegrating fronts in the Gulf like late last summer.