issued yesterday: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/cwd/
NCEP Critical Weather Day Status
Critical Weather Day Has Been Declared
START: 1800Z TUE MAY 31 2016
END: 0000Z SAT JUN 04 2016
TYPE: Regional
WHO: NCEP, NWSTG, NCF AND SOUTHERN REGION
REASON: Continued heavy rain and flooding in Texas
JUNE 2016: Showers/Storms Possible
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Brazos River Flood Update from Jeff:
Brazos River has reached 54.65ft or over 4.0 ft above the previous modern day record…currently 102,000cfs or 45.7 million gallons of water per minute is passing the Hwy 90 gage.
It is believed that the massive flood wave is being squeezed between the levees between HWY 90 and US 59 which is causing the river to continue to rise at Richmond. The levees were not in place in the October 1994 flood which allow the water to spread out over area which are now subdivisions.
At 900am this morning water began to overflow onto HWY 90 between the river and the New Territory subdivision. FM 723 and FM 359 along with many over roads across Fort Bend County are closed and impassable. Some subdivisions are being nearly cut-off including Pecan Grove and Kingdom Heights. The town of Thompsons has been completely cut-off.
Water is within 3.5 ft of many of the 15 different levees across Fort Bend County At this time water is not expected to overtop the levees, but they are being monitoring 24/7 for any potential issues.
Additional rainfall is likely across much of the Brazos River basin starting this afternoon and lasting into Saturday. Potential for several inches of rain on top of already severe flooding will only worsen the situation in Fort Bend and Brazoria counties. Additionally, subdivisions with levees will have to pump all of the rain water since gravity flow into the river or its tributaries is not possible at the current levels. We shall see if the pumps are able to keep up with the potential high rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour in the coming days.
[/i]
Brazos River has reached 54.65ft or over 4.0 ft above the previous modern day record…currently 102,000cfs or 45.7 million gallons of water per minute is passing the Hwy 90 gage.
It is believed that the massive flood wave is being squeezed between the levees between HWY 90 and US 59 which is causing the river to continue to rise at Richmond. The levees were not in place in the October 1994 flood which allow the water to spread out over area which are now subdivisions.
At 900am this morning water began to overflow onto HWY 90 between the river and the New Territory subdivision. FM 723 and FM 359 along with many over roads across Fort Bend County are closed and impassable. Some subdivisions are being nearly cut-off including Pecan Grove and Kingdom Heights. The town of Thompsons has been completely cut-off.
Water is within 3.5 ft of many of the 15 different levees across Fort Bend County At this time water is not expected to overtop the levees, but they are being monitoring 24/7 for any potential issues.
Additional rainfall is likely across much of the Brazos River basin starting this afternoon and lasting into Saturday. Potential for several inches of rain on top of already severe flooding will only worsen the situation in Fort Bend and Brazoria counties. Additionally, subdivisions with levees will have to pump all of the rain water since gravity flow into the river or its tributaries is not possible at the current levels. We shall see if the pumps are able to keep up with the potential high rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour in the coming days.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-021700-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
1156 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMING AROUND AN APPROACHING
WESTERN UPPER LOW...COUPLED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS...WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED TOTALS
THAT EXCEED 3 INCHES.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMING AROUND AN APPROACHING
WESTERN UPPER LOW...COUPLED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS...WILL INTRODUCE PERIODS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 7 INCHES.
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
WEEKEND MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL NEAR COASTAL FOCUS FOR CONTINUED DAILY
PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY MONDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS NEED TO BE AWARE OF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRENCES...FROM HIGH
RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO FLOODING TO DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
TORNADOES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-021700-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
1156 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMING AROUND AN APPROACHING
WESTERN UPPER LOW...COUPLED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS...WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED TOTALS
THAT EXCEED 3 INCHES.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMING AROUND AN APPROACHING
WESTERN UPPER LOW...COUPLED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS...WILL INTRODUCE PERIODS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 7 INCHES.
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
WEEKEND MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL NEAR COASTAL FOCUS FOR CONTINUED DAILY
PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY MONDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS NEED TO BE AWARE OF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRENCES...FROM HIGH
RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO FLOODING TO DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
TORNADOES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Getting hammered once again in Beaumont. Here we go!!! 
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Short fuse quantitative precipitation forecast and surface charts suggest the best potential for heavier rainfall has shifted more along Coastal Texas. It is also noteworthy of the potential of some tropical mischief attempting to develop in the Bay of Campeche and generally moving NE toward Florida.
- Attachments
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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houstonia
- Posts: 138
- Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:51 pm
- Location: Houston, Texas (Southwest side; Sharpstown)
- Contact:
Am I right in seeing the above map as showing the Hou/Galv area actually more under the gun for higher amounts? The x for 3.57 looks to be straight on the Houston area. Or am I being too visual?
You are seeing that correctly.
This could easily change though.
This could easily change though.
But just yesterday, at this time (top of page 5), Austin to Kingsville was showing 5+" for the time period Wednesday to Saturday, so it's definitely a moving target. Houston was just below 3", yesterday.Rip76 wrote:You are seeing that correctly.
This could easily change though.
Not worth a bet in Vegas.
Ounce wrote: Not worth a bet in Vegas.
This is also correct.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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If anything does spin up, it appears to gradually move NE toward Florida. We will watch it carefully. Welcome to Hurricane Season 2016.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie, located about 90 miles southeast of
Wilmington, North Carolina.
1. A broad low pressure area may form over the southern Gulf of Mexico
by early next week. Additional development of the low should be
slow to occur as the low moves slowly north-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.
The list of names for 2016 is as follows:
Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Alex AL-leks Lisa LEE-suh
Bonnie BAH-nee Matthew MATH-yoo
Colin KAH-lihn Nicole nih-KOHL
Danielle dan-YELL Otto AHT-toh
Earl URR-ull Paula PAHL-luh
Fiona fee-OH-nuh Richard RIH-churd
Gaston ga-STAWN Shary SHAHR-ee
Hermine her-MEEN Tobias toh-BEE-uss
Ian EE-an Virginie vir-JIN-ee
Julia JOO-lee-uh Walter WALL-tur
Karl KAR-ull
Two tropical cyclones have already formed this year, Hurricane Alex
in January and Tropical Storm Bonnie in May. The next named storm
that forms this season will be named Colin.
This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are
1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.
A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.
The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package. It is also used to
issue hourly position updates when coastal watches and warnings are
in effect and the cyclone center can be easily tracked with
land based radar. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at
any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under
AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.
All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov. You can also
interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.
Notifications are available via Twitter when select National
Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our
Atlantic Twitter feed is available at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml.
Forecaster Beven
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie, located about 90 miles southeast of
Wilmington, North Carolina.
1. A broad low pressure area may form over the southern Gulf of Mexico
by early next week. Additional development of the low should be
slow to occur as the low moves slowly north-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.
The list of names for 2016 is as follows:
Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Alex AL-leks Lisa LEE-suh
Bonnie BAH-nee Matthew MATH-yoo
Colin KAH-lihn Nicole nih-KOHL
Danielle dan-YELL Otto AHT-toh
Earl URR-ull Paula PAHL-luh
Fiona fee-OH-nuh Richard RIH-churd
Gaston ga-STAWN Shary SHAHR-ee
Hermine her-MEEN Tobias toh-BEE-uss
Ian EE-an Virginie vir-JIN-ee
Julia JOO-lee-uh Walter WALL-tur
Karl KAR-ull
Two tropical cyclones have already formed this year, Hurricane Alex
in January and Tropical Storm Bonnie in May. The next named storm
that forms this season will be named Colin.
This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are
1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.
A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.
The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package. It is also used to
issue hourly position updates when coastal watches and warnings are
in effect and the cyclone center can be easily tracked with
land based radar. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at
any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under
AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.
All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov. You can also
interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.
Notifications are available via Twitter when select National
Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our
Atlantic Twitter feed is available at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml.
Forecaster Beven
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
The 12Z GFS model does focus the 96 hour rainfall forecast map on the Freeport - Galveston area. 3-4 inches of rain inland.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Another worrisome, aggressive and detailed Area Forecast Discussion this afternoon from NWS Houston/Galveston...and NWS Austin/San Antonio...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
314 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms across the area with temperatures in the
mid 80s. Storms are slow moving with heavy rain threat across
areas mainly north of a Bellville to Livingston line. These storms
continue to expand and shift northward this afternoon. Will need
to watch for the western end of the line slowing late this
afternoon and evening and possibly becoming anchored as storms
develop to the west - maintaining the light low level inflow
nearly perpendicular to the slow moving boundary then increasing
moisture transport over the boundary toward morning.
Overnight expect an MCS to form over the EWX region and track
southeast and east probably moving into the region after 3 am and
as late as 9 am. Storms may still be percolating along the
remnant boundary in the north as well. PW values slowly climbing
and Thursday morning may be close to the 1.9-2.0" value with
increasing low level south to southeast flow. Upper jet aimed into
South Texas but with a diffluent pattern over SETX with favorable
divergence. This should lead to active weather in the morning
mainly across the southern half of the region shifting slowly
inland during the afternoon. Very heavy rainfall will be possible
Thursday and may have the potential for slow moving clusters or
bands of storms. Given the high PW and motion - localized
rainfall of 4-8 inches will be a good bet...some isolated amounts
may exceed this but pinpointing where is difficult with mesoscale
features taking over Thursday morning. The upper low slows over
Central TX Thursday night/Friday and will have the potential for a
heavy rain event focused closer to the center possibly extending
into the western areas of SETX. Heavy rain threat continues
Friday with upper shear axis eventually becoming SW to NE through
the region Friday night/Saturday morning. Friday afternoon a
weakening cold front oozes its way into the area and probably
stalls close to the coast. The heavy rain threat may begin to
decrease Saturday. At some point the drier air aloft may help
nudge the active weather into the Gulf but for now will keep rain
chances going through the weekend out through Tuesday. Second push
of dry air aloft will nose down into the area Tuesday/Wednesday
and rain chances should start to taper off.
.Hydrology...
Lower Brazos still undergoing extensive major to record flooding
and areas near Richmond down past Rosharon will see flooding
continue to worsen. Additional heavy rainfall will aggravate the
ongoing flooding. Moderate to major flooding on lower San Bernard
and Colorado rivers...this area too will be under the gun for
heavy rainfall totals in the coming days.
45
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
317 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Upper low can be seen on water vapor just south of the AZ/NM
border. This is the system that will be coming into Texas over the
next several days bringing the continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms. This afternoon it appears that South Central Texas
is in between lift areas, one to the east near the TX/LA border
and more lift over the Edwards Plateau and the Big Bend. Will
continue with high pop and the wording of locally heavy rainfall
overnight. It appears from the latest meso models that a cluster
or MCS should develop out west and move through the central and
southern sections of the CWA. This risk of storms will continue to
be high on Thursday as the upper low moves into Texas and stalls
over Central Texas. The flood threat will remain high with
saturated soils. The pattern has shown breaks in the activity as
the large MCS systems do a good job in bringing stable area in
their wake. The timing and exact location of these systems will
still be problematic in giving any sort of forecast specifics.
Flooding threat will remain high. Cant rule out some Severe
Storms with a Marginal risk forecast by SPC. Marginal risk is
mainly south of the area on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Both the European and GFS show the upper low stalling over the
area on Thursday Night through Saturday before drifting southwest
into Mexico over the weekend into early next week. Keeping with
the 3-5 inches, isolated 10 inch totals. WPC and models are
showing that much of the precip will be east and south of the area
but with the upper low centered over Texas we will run the
continued risk of daytime development of storms as well as night
time development if the low center develops more of a warm core.
By the start of next week the low is forecast to drift sw into
Mexico. This will take the majority of the lift with it with only
a 20 pop on Monday and no pop on Tuesday. Cant rule out some
isolated activity next week just due to residual moisture left
behind and daytime heating.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
314 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms across the area with temperatures in the
mid 80s. Storms are slow moving with heavy rain threat across
areas mainly north of a Bellville to Livingston line. These storms
continue to expand and shift northward this afternoon. Will need
to watch for the western end of the line slowing late this
afternoon and evening and possibly becoming anchored as storms
develop to the west - maintaining the light low level inflow
nearly perpendicular to the slow moving boundary then increasing
moisture transport over the boundary toward morning.
Overnight expect an MCS to form over the EWX region and track
southeast and east probably moving into the region after 3 am and
as late as 9 am. Storms may still be percolating along the
remnant boundary in the north as well. PW values slowly climbing
and Thursday morning may be close to the 1.9-2.0" value with
increasing low level south to southeast flow. Upper jet aimed into
South Texas but with a diffluent pattern over SETX with favorable
divergence. This should lead to active weather in the morning
mainly across the southern half of the region shifting slowly
inland during the afternoon. Very heavy rainfall will be possible
Thursday and may have the potential for slow moving clusters or
bands of storms. Given the high PW and motion - localized
rainfall of 4-8 inches will be a good bet...some isolated amounts
may exceed this but pinpointing where is difficult with mesoscale
features taking over Thursday morning. The upper low slows over
Central TX Thursday night/Friday and will have the potential for a
heavy rain event focused closer to the center possibly extending
into the western areas of SETX. Heavy rain threat continues
Friday with upper shear axis eventually becoming SW to NE through
the region Friday night/Saturday morning. Friday afternoon a
weakening cold front oozes its way into the area and probably
stalls close to the coast. The heavy rain threat may begin to
decrease Saturday. At some point the drier air aloft may help
nudge the active weather into the Gulf but for now will keep rain
chances going through the weekend out through Tuesday. Second push
of dry air aloft will nose down into the area Tuesday/Wednesday
and rain chances should start to taper off.
.Hydrology...
Lower Brazos still undergoing extensive major to record flooding
and areas near Richmond down past Rosharon will see flooding
continue to worsen. Additional heavy rainfall will aggravate the
ongoing flooding. Moderate to major flooding on lower San Bernard
and Colorado rivers...this area too will be under the gun for
heavy rainfall totals in the coming days.
45
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
317 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Upper low can be seen on water vapor just south of the AZ/NM
border. This is the system that will be coming into Texas over the
next several days bringing the continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms. This afternoon it appears that South Central Texas
is in between lift areas, one to the east near the TX/LA border
and more lift over the Edwards Plateau and the Big Bend. Will
continue with high pop and the wording of locally heavy rainfall
overnight. It appears from the latest meso models that a cluster
or MCS should develop out west and move through the central and
southern sections of the CWA. This risk of storms will continue to
be high on Thursday as the upper low moves into Texas and stalls
over Central Texas. The flood threat will remain high with
saturated soils. The pattern has shown breaks in the activity as
the large MCS systems do a good job in bringing stable area in
their wake. The timing and exact location of these systems will
still be problematic in giving any sort of forecast specifics.
Flooding threat will remain high. Cant rule out some Severe
Storms with a Marginal risk forecast by SPC. Marginal risk is
mainly south of the area on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Both the European and GFS show the upper low stalling over the
area on Thursday Night through Saturday before drifting southwest
into Mexico over the weekend into early next week. Keeping with
the 3-5 inches, isolated 10 inch totals. WPC and models are
showing that much of the precip will be east and south of the area
but with the upper low centered over Texas we will run the
continued risk of daytime development of storms as well as night
time development if the low center develops more of a warm core.
By the start of next week the low is forecast to drift sw into
Mexico. This will take the majority of the lift with it with only
a 20 pop on Monday and no pop on Tuesday. Cant rule out some
isolated activity next week just due to residual moisture left
behind and daytime heating.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT
* AT 435 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. MINOR FLOODING OF FEEDER ROADS AND OTHER LOW SPOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORTHERN MISSOURI CITY...CONROE...BELLAIRE...HUMBLE...WEST UNIVERSITY
PLACE...GALENA PARK...TOMBALL...JACINTO CITY...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS
CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...PINEHURST...
ASTRODOME AREA...SPRING VALLEY...GREATER FIFTH WARD...SPRING BRANCH
WEST...NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...SECOND WARD AND NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON.
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT
* AT 435 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. MINOR FLOODING OF FEEDER ROADS AND OTHER LOW SPOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORTHERN MISSOURI CITY...CONROE...BELLAIRE...HUMBLE...WEST UNIVERSITY
PLACE...GALENA PARK...TOMBALL...JACINTO CITY...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS
CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...PINEHURST...
ASTRODOME AREA...SPRING VALLEY...GREATER FIFTH WARD...SPRING BRANCH
WEST...NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...SECOND WARD AND NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
511 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT
* AT 510 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN BETWEEN THE WOODLANDS AND THE LAKE CONROE DAM.
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CONROE...TOMBALL...WILLIS...PINEHURST...SPRING...THE WOODLANDS...OAK
RIDGE NORTH...PANORAMA VILLAGE...SHENANDOAH...MAGNOLIA...STAGECOACH...
WOODLOCH...LAKE CONROE DAM...PORTER HEIGHTS...SPLASHTOWN...HOOKS
AIRPORT...THE WOODLANDS PAVILLION AND CHATEAU WOODS.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
511 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT
* AT 510 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN BETWEEN THE WOODLANDS AND THE LAKE CONROE DAM.
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CONROE...TOMBALL...WILLIS...PINEHURST...SPRING...THE WOODLANDS...OAK
RIDGE NORTH...PANORAMA VILLAGE...SHENANDOAH...MAGNOLIA...STAGECOACH...
WOODLOCH...LAKE CONROE DAM...PORTER HEIGHTS...SPLASHTOWN...HOOKS
AIRPORT...THE WOODLANDS PAVILLION AND CHATEAU WOODS.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT
* AT 539 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SEALY...BROOKSHIRE...EAGLE LAKE...EAST BERNARD...WALLIS...SIMONTON...SAN
FELIPE...PATTISON AND ORCHARD.
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT
* AT 539 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SEALY...BROOKSHIRE...EAGLE LAKE...EAST BERNARD...WALLIS...SIMONTON...SAN
FELIPE...PATTISON AND ORCHARD.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~