Models Sniffing-Out future, "Danielle"?

[brooksgarner]

Anyone noticing the GFS, GEM, NAVGEM trying to sniff out a tropical system in the Gulf next week? You know how these go: probably won't happen, but then again ... The ensembles show a weakness in the Bay of Campeche, so it's not DefCon 4.

navgem_z500_mslp_us_27.png

gfs_namer_384_10m_wnd_precip.gif

gem_z500_mslp_us_23.png

[Rip76]

Interesting.

I will say these last couple of years, when models have sniffed "something," there's usually been "something."

[wxman57]

The GFS (American model) has indicted development in the western Caribbean around June 30th (next Thursday) for the past 3 days. However, it moves the storm anywhere from NE Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. Latest run (this morning) takes it to Beaumont/Port Arthur on July 6th, notably later than the July 3 landfall in Florida it predicted most of the time. This could be a sign it's starting to lose the feature. Euro indicates no low in the western Caribbean next Thursday.

The origin of this development appears to be a convectionless tropical wave now located along 33W, about 1800 miles east of the Caribbean. While it's an interesting forecast beyond 10 days, I wouldn't get too excited about development until the development is within 4-5 days and the Euro is aboard. Forget the Canadian & NAVGEM, two of the worst models for predicting genesis.

It's possible that "something" turns out to be only an increase in shower activity across the region.