July 2016: Summertime Pattern To End July

[DoctorMu]

Very nice. That's a surface map, but suggests the UL high is a little north and east of expected today and weaker. The sea breeze may make it to Navasota.


Ridging and moisture are expected to increase over the weekend. Stay hydrated and cool!

[Ounce]

Getting prepared for the 2016 hurricane season. Hopefully I did not scare the neighbors today with the storm panels today. Its been 8 years since I brought the panels out for a trial run. The NW GOM has been fairly quiet without a significant tropical cyclone threat since IKE in 2008. The potential exist for a more active 2016 season across the GOM and Caribbean Sea with less shear thanks to La Nina

I will be completing some additional maintenance during the next few days. The screw inserts for windows surrounded by bricks need to be cleaned multiple times during the Summer as mud wasps love to try and make these their home. A can of compressed air and WD-40 does the trick.

Today's task took from 11AM until 5:30PM in mostly sunny skies with temps in the mid 90s. I had forgotten about the intense glare off the panels as well as how fast they get extremely hot in the Summer sun.

It was exhausting but will dramatically reduce the time and frustration of putting up the panels during crunch time when every minute counts. I have documented the number of panels per window as well as stacking the panels from the easiest to the most difficult on top. I remember during IKE I put up the easiest panels first but then had to put up the most difficult panels when I was worn down and TS conditions were beginning. Applying lessons of IKE 2008 for the next one.

Kat-What if for the screw inserts, you cut a 3x3 piece of screen that covers the opening and attach it with velcro that has a sticky side and the hook or eye on the other side. Just a thought as it might not allow your mud wasps to have families.

[Katdaddy]

Thats a great idea Ounce. The screw inserts get plugged often thus keeping the mud wasp out is the best solution. Thank you for your input, its much appreciated. The hot Summer-time weather will be here through next week with possible Heat Advisories. The Atlantic Basin remains quiet for now.

[srainhoutx]

Overnight convective complex in the Dallas/Ft Worth area dropped a record 1.87 inches of rainfall at DFW and the outflow boundary continues to slowly sag SE. The 13Z HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) Meso Model is indicating the possibility of some Weather Fireworks as the boundary near SE Texas later this afternoon/evening during peak heating. A Heat Advisory has been issued through tomorrow, so make sure to stay hydrated out there and watch the skies toward the North in case Thunderstorms to attempt to organize as folks head out to the Public Fireworks displays.

[BlueJay]

Happy July 4th to all!

[Texaspirate11]

Happy Safe 4th - Remember we are under a HEAT ADVISORY - so Hydrate!

[DoctorMu]

OH, THE HUMIDITY!!


The outflow fizzled in terms of rain. A bit hot, moist wind, but that's about it.

[ticka1]

windy and hot out there! Staying inside with the a/c

[BreinLa]

Same here ticka, miserable out there, went to my sisters yesterday for pool party got sick big time, heat exhaustion, scared the crap out of me

[ticka1]

Same here ticka, miserable out there, went to my sisters yesterday for pool party got sick big time, heat exhaustion, scared the crap out of me

unforunately as we get a lil older breinla heat exhaustion is dangerous. Hope you feel better soon. Welcome to khou wx forums -great to see you here! I have stayed indoors all weekend except for a car show saturday night after 6:00 pm.

[srainhoutx]

Heat Advisory looks to continue throughout the work week with possibly a slight weakening of the Upper Ridge this weekend as it shifts a bit allowing for a slight chance of cooling showers and thunderstorms with the seabreeze or a passing shortwave. The overnight ensembles are suggesting a bit of a Western trough and Eastern Ridge which could allow for a weakness over Texas to develop. It is also note worthy the Madden Julian Oscillation Precipitation Pulse arrives during this timeframe and that may assist in lowering pressures and a bit better instability as well as weakening the cap that has allowed for the dry weather of late. We are in a typical early July pattern across our Region, climatologically speaking and as the month wears on eyes begin to turn toward the Tropics as August begins.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston/Galveston cancels Heat Advisory for inland areas of SE Texas. Coastal Counties will continue the Heat Advisory.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1035 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY...

.HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. DURING THE MORNING HOURS THE
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON THE
DEWPOINT WILL FALL AND THE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES SHOULD
RANGE FROM 102 TO 108. THE HIGHER HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE GULF COASTAL COUNTIES. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELED FOR THE INLAND AREAS. THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON A DAY TO DAY
BASIS FOR AREAS THAT HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY REACH 108.

AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-
WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...
COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...
EDNA...EL CAMPO...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...
HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...
MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PASADENA...
PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...
SUGAR LAND...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WILLIS
1035 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS CANCELLED
THE HEAT ADVISORY.

HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS OF 102 TO 106 BETWEEN 11 AM AND 7 PM.

[Katdaddy]

The heat and humidity will continue across much of TX through the rest of the week.

[srainhoutx]

Starting to see a bit of relief from the Heat wave possible later this weekend into next week as the pattern amplifies a bit with a Western trough and possibly even some snow across the elevations of the Cascades into the Northern Rockies. The overnight guidance is suggesting a bit of African Dust arrives this weekend that may allow for some Red Skies at sunrise and sunset Saturday and Sunday. Lowering pressures begin to develop as the Upper Ridge weakens and shifts West in response to a shortwave embedded in the Western trough amplified flow. There are also some indications that a surge of deeper tropical moisture arrives in the Western Gulf early next week with increasing rain chances as the moisture surge arrives along the Eastern Mexico and Texas Gulf Coasts. This coincides with the arrival of the strong Madden Julian Oscillation Pulse that we have been monitoring the past 7 to 10 days and has played a role along with the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave in developing the Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones. So far we have not seen temperatures reach 100 degrees (actual temperature reading) across portions of N Central, SE and Eastern Texas this summer. Fingers crossed we can receive some cooling showers/storms next week.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 060859
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
310 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Ridge City going into mid-week with above normal morning
temperatures and slightly above normal afternoon T(max) readings.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the coastal counties that have
consistently reached 108F or greater in previous days simply due to
those higher dew points within moisture rich gulf air.
Inland locations have not achieved heat advisory criteria so, as
this forecast has become one of persistence (with little to no
change in the synoptic) our inland counties will not be under an
advisory today. There will be a Special Weather Statement issued
that will highlight the fact that, even though we will not reach
Heat Advisory criteria in numbers, the effects of consecutive days
of lower 80 minimum temperatures and middle 90 maximum temperatures
readings will take its toll on folks working outside during the day,
those unable to cool their living/working space down to below 80 F,
the elderly, children and pets. Thus, precautions should be taken to
ensure we all stay safe and immune to heat illness.

5H ridging paralleling the southern CONUS latitudes will remain in
place through the remainder of the work week. Minor
weakening/lowering heights will likely occur sometime early next
week. This will be when precipitation chances begin to creep in
from the south and east as either weak PVA enters the region
and/or a more active sea breeze provides the lift needed to bring
-TSRA potential to fruition. Ample low to mid level afternoon
lapse rates of around 7-8 C should be enough to aid in parcel
lift, but the main question mark resides in available moisture. It
seems like a joke to suggest that, after these recent weeks of >
75 F Tds, that moisture would be a problem, but model trends are
to begin advecting in a relatively drier air mass. This drier
trend will begin as early as today as current 1.7 to 1.8 inch pws
lower to around 1.5 inches with periods of slightly lower readings
in the coming days. Prog soundings do depict a fair amount of dry
air between 600-800 mb (as do recent 00Z regional soundings) so
feel this air will mix to the surface under mostly clear/sunny
skies. This will lower mid to late afternoon surface dew points
into the lower 70s. These relatively lower afternoon Tds, in
tandem with average middle 90 ambient temperatures, will equate to
heat indices in the 103 to 106 F range over the next few days. 31

&&

.MARINE...
Wind speeds are currently running 15-20 knots so will maintain the
caution flags. Otherwise...not a whole lot of change expected for
the next several days with moderate onshore flow persisting. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
Forecast of persistence remains tough to beat. Late night and morning
MVFR cigs will give way to VFR conditions during the day with moderate
southerly flow prevailing. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 79 98 78 97 / 10 0 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 97 80 97 79 97 / 10 0 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 84 91 84 91 / 10 0 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...
Matagorda.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31/47

[unome]

Starting to see a bit of relief from the Heat wave possible later this weekend into next week

Fingers crossed we can receive some cooling showers/storms next week.

can't come soon enough - at 10 AM, heat index is 102...

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston/Galveston extends Heat Advisory to include all of the SE Texas Weather Forecasting Office Counties. All of Louisiana is now in the Heat Advisory as well:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1011 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 8 PM CDT...

.HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES SHOULD RANGE FROM 103 TO 109 DEGREES. THE
DURATION OF THIS HEAT EVENT COUPLED WITH RECORD HIGH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CREATE DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS
ACROSS SE TEXAS.

AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-
WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...
COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...
EDNA...EL CAMPO...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...
HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...
MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PASADENA...
PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...
SUGAR LAND...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WILLIS
1011 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

* EVENT...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 92 TO 98 DEGREE RANGE...
LEADING TO HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 104 AND 109 DEGREES.

* TIMING...10 AM THROUGH 8 PM.

* IMPACT...HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE CAN QUICKLY OCCUR TO
ANYONE WORKING OR PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER IN THE HOUR BEFORE VENTURING OUTDOORS. WHEN
POSSIBLE... RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 911.

EACH YEAR...A NUMBER OF FATALITIES OCCUR NATIONWIDE DUE TO
CHILDREN ACCIDENTALLY BEING LEFT IN VEHICLES DURING THE SUMMER
MONTHS. IN THE PAST DOZEN YEARS...500 CHILDREN HAVE DIED DUE TO
HYPERTHERMIA AFTER BEING LEFT IN OR GAINING ACCESS TO CARS. NEVER
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN A VEHICLE NOT EVEN FOR A
MINUTE. REMEMBER...BEAT THE HEAT...CHECK THE BACKSEAT.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Update Climate Prediction Center Day 8 to 14 Outlook suggests hot temperatures will continue with increasing rainfall chances, particularly across the Eastern half of Texas into Louisiana. Interestingly, the top Day 11+ Analog year is 1998 which was when the last Super El Nino was waning and that infamous 1979 Analog continues as #2 top best fit in the North American Pattern.

[DoctorMu]

The slightest chance of diurnal showers returns as the ridge retreats west Sunday and next week. The DP is still really high and with afternoon temps rising to the mid 90s and in norther cos possibly upper 90s, stay hydrated and cool.



299
FXUS64 KHGX 080853
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
353 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY WITH
UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL. FCST GRIDS INDICATE 104-107 HEAT
INDICIES CAN BE ANTICIPATED. IMMEDIATE COAST MAY SEE AN HOUR OR
TWO OF 108 READINGS SOMETIME BETWEEN 11AM-3PM. SOME IF THE HIRES
SOLNS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REAL ISOLATED/SPOTTY
SHOWERS (SIMILAR TO WHAT`S CURRENTLY SEEN OFFSHORE) FURTHER INLAND
DURING THE DAY. BUT CONSIDER YOURSELF QUITE LUCKY IF YOU HAPPEN
TO SEE ANY.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RETREATS WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW US TO GRADUALLY SHAVE A FEW DEGREES
OFF TEMPS AND ALSO REINTRODUCE LOWISH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS BACK
INTO THE FCST. THE REGION REMAINS SITUATED IN SOMEWHAT OF A
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGES FOR A DECENT
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRIMARILY ISOLATED IN
NATURE...MAYBE MORE SCATTERED TOWARD MIDWEEK. 47

[DoctorMu]

Things look bleak in the long-term GFS forecast,

but in the short-term




as the ridge weakens... and thus more clouds and a slight chance of seabreeze-linked rain this weekend.


FXUS64 KHGX 091522
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1022 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Showers got going early this morning in the southwestern counties
and have upped pops there and into the Metro for the afternoon.
Based on high res models highlighting the convergence along the
seabreeze over the Metro with convective development. Brief gusty
winds of 30-40 mph within the realm of possibility if the storms
actually develop but will be fighting subsidence and unusually
dry air aloft.

Heat...a a few degrees cooler at 15z versus yesterday with similar
dewpoints. Expect to see temperatures right back up there where
they were yesterday so heat index readings of 102-107 should be
common...except for the coastal area where 106-108 should be more
common. No changes to current heat advisory but will be keeping a
close eye on current obs and update if we reach 108 over the next
tier of counties inland (any storms that develop should help to
hold down temps both this outflow and increased cloud cover).

Low light visible satellite this morning at sunrise showed the
dust plume over the southern half of the Gulf and headed this
way...probably won`t get here until the overnight hours so the
hazy conditions will probably hold off until Sunday morning.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Mid/upper trof axis currently pushing across NW/N Tx should
eventually carve out a weakness in the ridge across SE Tx that has
dominated area wx for the past several days. Though a mostly
inconsequential drop in high/low temperatures should occur, one
of the primary benefits will be a less hostile atmos for iso/sct
precip development.

For today: continued hot & muggy. Galveston Island has been about
the only site to hit the 108 heat index the past couple days.
Grids indicate that to be the case once again today so went ahead
and hoisted a short duration a Heat Advsy for Galveston Co and
threw in Brazoria & Chambers as well. Indices between 103-107
should prevail elsewhere. One slight change...and a welcome one
at that...is this mornings model data indicates the potential for
some isolated/scattered precip across the SE half of the CWA
today. Nudged pops up just a touch there. Will need to keep an eye
for gusty winds should any iso stronger cells emerge.

Otherwise...as previously noted...remainder of the fcst is mostly
cut-&-paste. Lows 75-80 & highs 94-97. Daily rain chances will be
mostly dependent in slight fluctuations of incoming Gulf moisture
from the persistent southerly flow. 47