TS Earl: Near Southern Bay of Campeche

[srainhoutx]

It appears to me that we may be witnessing the beginning of TC Genesis somewhere South of Mona Passage or Hispaniola during the next 24 hours

[srainhoutx]

The National Hurricane Center increased chances of a Tropical Cyclone developing in the next 48 hours to 50% with the 8:00 PM EDT Outlook.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave over the east-central Caribbean Sea continue to show
signs of organization, but there is still no evidence of a closed
surface circulation. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in
a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to cause locally
heavy rains and gusty winds over portions of the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight. These conditions are also
spreading across Hispaniola, and should reach Jamaica and Cuba by
late Monday as the wave moves westward near 25 mph over the central
Caribbean Sea. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Pasch

[Rip76]

Pretty strong ridge I assume.

[Andrew]

Starting to look good now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Rip76]

Wow, starting to ramp up.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

https://twitter.com/weathergeneral/stat ... 4333165568

Hmmmm

[Rip76]

https://twitter.com/weathergeneral/stat ... 4333165568

Hmmmm

What tha?

[Scott747]

Aside from 97l....

Take a breath before checking the long range of the 0z GFS. Classic track and setup for a big Texas cane. Keep in mind that its extremely long range but it already has mine and josh's attention.

[Andrew]

Aside from 97l....

Take a breath before checking the long range of the 0z GFS. Classic track and setup for a big Texas cane. Keep in mind that its extremely long range but it already has mine and josh's attention.

Yea ridging sets up over central/eastern Gulf Coast. Could be cause for concern if synoptics stay the same.

[srainhoutx]

That's twice in less than 24 hours the GFS solution has shown up. Could be a long couple of weeks monitoring. Tis the season..

[houstonia]

Aside from 97l....

Take a breath before checking the long range of the 0z GFS. Classic track and setup for a big Texas cane. Keep in mind that its extremely long range but it already has mine and josh's attention.

Yea ridging sets up over central/eastern Gulf Coast. Could be cause for concern if synoptics stay the same.

I'm having trouble following, can you please elaborate?
thanks!

[Andrew]

Looking at mid level heights (500mb or so) would indicate a pretty decent ridge located over the eastern and central parts of the gulf coast. Hurricanes follow the path of least resistance so a more westward track would be predicted as a result.

[rnmm]

97L up to 70/80

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea about 200
miles south of the Dominican Republic has increased and become
significantly better organized overnight. Although this system still
lacks a closed surface circulation, recent satellite-derived surface
wind data and ship observations indicate that tropical-storm-force
winds of 40 to 45 mph are occurring on the northern and eastern
areas of the large disturbance. If this recent development trend
continues, then a tropical storm could form later today when the
wave moves into the central Caribbean Sea, or by early Tuesday as it
approaches Jamaica and moves into the western Caribbean Sea. Locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are expected over Hispaniola today, and
reaching Jamaica and Cuba by late Monday as the system moves
westward at 20 to 25 mph. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in
the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of
this strong disturbance. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

[wxman57]

I wouldn't be too focused on development chances in the outlooks. Its presentation this morning on satellite/microwave indicates it may already be TS Earl. I have little doubt it will be named within 24hrs. May well be a hurricane prior to reaching the Yucatan. Good news for Texas is that all model ensemble members keep it south of Texas in the BoC or SW Gulf.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong tropical wave
located over the central Caribbean Sea about 350 miles
east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to show signs
of organization. Earlier satellite wind data indicate that the
system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and recent satellite
and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually
becoming better defined. If this development trend continues, a
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight as the
system moves westward over the west-central Caribbean sea at 20 to
25 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, are likely along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Tropical
storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon
or evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests
in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should
continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brown

[srainhoutx]

It appears to me this is already a Tropical Cyclone South of Haiti.

08012016_1145_goes13_x_vis1km_high_97LINVEST_40kts-1007mb-157N-692W_100pc.jpg (33.55 KiB) Viewed 5537 times

[srainhoutx]

An atmospheric conducive Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave has likely assisted 97L in organizing and that feature should allow for further development.

[ticka1]

is there a recon plane scheduled to fly into invest 97L?

[srainhoutx]

is there a recon plane scheduled to fly into invest 97L?

Currently scheduled for tomorrow afternoon/evening.

[srainhoutx]

The morning Ensemble Spaghetti Diagrams suggest Tampico may well be the eventual landfall point at Day 6 in the Western Gulf.