Tracking the Tropics:

[wxman57]

I think it knows we're planning a vacation to Orlando the 10th-14th. Though I think it will track east of Florida, I may not have any days off until we leave on the 14th...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical wave passing
through the Windward Islands has acquired a closed circulation. The
aircraft found peak flight-level winds of 64 kt, and SFMR surface
winds of around 50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation.
As a result, advisories are being initiated on a 50-kt tropical
storm. The current lack of inner core structure suggests that
further strengthening should be limited today, but environmental
conditions consisting of warm water and low shear ahead of Matthew
favor intensification throughout the remainder of the forecast
period. The NHC intensity forecast is more conservative than the
statistical guidance, but follows the trends of the global models
in deepening the system.

Since the center has very recently formed, the initial motion
estimate is a highly uncertain 275/18 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic should steer Matthew westward across the
eastern Caribbean during the next few days, and the track guidance
is tightly clustered through 72 hours. After that time, the
tropical cyclone will be approaching the western portion of the
ridge and a northwestward turn is expected, although there are
significant differences among the track models as to when the turn
takes place and how sharp it will be. The GFS takes the cyclone
northwestward much faster than the ECMWF with more troughing
developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. For now, the NHC track
lies near a consensus of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 13.4N 60.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 13.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 13.9N 66.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.9N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 13.8N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 13.5N 74.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 14.8N 75.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[tireman4]

From HGX concerning Matthew:

TROPICAL...
Tropical Storm Matthew continues to drift west into the eastern
Caribbean early this morning and is forecast to reach the central
Caribbean by Friday. Track guidance remains in good agreement
that Matthew will turn to the north late this weekend as an upper
trough reamplifies over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, moving
towards Cuba/Hispaniola and continuing north into the middle of
next week. Matthew is not currently forecast to enter the Gulf of
Mexico and no impacts are anticipated for Southeast Texas.

Huffman

[biffb816]

Is it kind of unusual for a hurricane to make that forecast hard right from that far into the Caribean?

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning briefing from Jeff regarding Hurricane Matthew:

Matthew rapidly intensifies to a category 2 hurricane.

Matthew forecast to become a major hurricane with potential significant impacts to the island of Jamaica

Discussion:
Since becoming a hurricane yesterday afternoon Matthew has continued to rapidly intensify even with 15-20kts of SW wind shear over the hurricane with winds now of 105mph. USAF aircraft has just completed its first center fix this morning and reported a central pressure down to 971mb…this is a 24mb pressure fall in 24 hours. Max flight level winds of 93kts were recorded and the flight crew reports a nearly closed eyewall only open to the SW. Radar data from Curacao overnight has shown the formation and closing off of a developed eye feature. Since then deep convection has been maintained over the center of the hurricane and IR images are starting to show a “warm spot” in the center of the deep central convection suggesting an eye is attempting to clear out. Matthew is moving WSW (155 degrees) as confirmed by Curacao radar and latest USAF fixes which is a little south of the current forecast track.

Track:
Matthew is south of a strong sub-tropical ridge over the western Atlantic which has forced the hurricane to turn WSW/SW overnight and this motion with a turn toward the W is expected to continue for the next 24-36 hours. The faster than expected short term motion overnight has required a shift in the short term forecast track slightly toward the west. After 48 hours Matthew will reach the western edge of the sub-tropical ridge and approach the eastern influences of a trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico which will require the hurricane to begin to turn toward the NW and N. There remains questions as to how far west Matthew moves over the next 36-48 hours which will have a potential large impact on where the hurricane tracks in the longer range. Overall operational and ensemble tracks has shifted slightly westward over the last 24 hours and now show a significant hurricane threat to Jamaica early Monday morning. After 72 hours Matthew will turn more toward the north and cross Cuba and enter the southern Bahamas. The latter part of this forecast remains somewhat uncertain on where exactly the hurricane will be located at days 4 and 5 both due to differences in forward speed and how sharp of a right turn the hurricane makes, but the latest operational and ensemble tracks are in better agreement than 24-36 hours ago some of this is due to the data from the late afternoon high level NOAA mission to sample the intensity of the sub-tropical ridge axis north of Matthew.

It is too early to determine which portions or if the US east coast or FL may be impacted by this hurricane.

Intensity:
Even with wind shear…Matthew has continued to become better defined and intensity overnight. It is likely that an inner core has formed…although the USAF mission will confirm this later this morning…and once such a feature is established rapid intensification is certainly possible. Not sure any of the intensity guidance has a good handle on the current intensity forecast and Matthew could be a significantly stronger hurricane than currently forecast as it approaches Jamaica late Sunday into Monday. The current NHC forecast is for Matthew to become a category 3 major hurricane early Saturday with the intensity holding steady up to landfall over Jamaica…however it would not be surprising if Matthew exceeds this forecast and becomes a very dangerous category 4 hurricane. Matthew is forecast to remain and large and powerful hurricane across Cuba and into the southern and central Bahamas.

Local Weather:
For the first time since May 7th…the temperature and BUSH IAH has fallen below 60 degrees this morning. Secondary influx of dry air yesterday afternoon will remain in place through the weekend as the eastern Gulf of Mexico upper level trough helping to turn Matthew northward maintains a NW flow aloft over SE TX. Expect lows a couple of degrees colder Saturday morning…into the mid to upper 50’s and highs in the lower 80’s.

Next potentially significant upper level trough and cold front begin to take shape over the Rockies early next week with potential impacts across TX around Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture will begin to return from the Gulf on Monday and Tuesday which will end the cool overnight lows. Showers and thunderstorms may enter the forecast by next Wednesday as lift increases ahead of the trough. Will also need to watch to see if moisture from developing tropical system 97E in the eastern Pacific becomes ingested into this upper level trough. Long range models are not in very good agreement on how strong the front associated with this trough may be…but the depth of the feature suggest a fairly decent cold front may arrive toward the Thursday/Friday period of next week.

[srainhoutx]

Friday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Matthew becomes an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane.

Hurricane Watch is issued for the island of Jamaica.

Discussion:

USAF mission has found a now powerful hurricane and this is supported by satellite images and radar data. Flight level winds of 121kts and surface winds of 116kts support a category 4 rating for Matthew of 140mph. The central pressure has fallen 44mb in the last 24 hours and is now 949mb or down from 971mb just this morning. Reports from the flight crew indicate Matthew has a completely closed off eyewall and both visible and IR images are supporting the formation of an eye with a steady clearing out of the feature. Recon fixes indicate Matthew continues to move WSW (255 degrees), but has slowed the forward motion to 8kts as the hurricane is nearing the edge of the sub-tropical ridge axis to its north.

Track:

Track guidance is coming into better agreement due in part to the NOAA high altitude mission yesterday evening to sample the ridge axis north of Matthew. A similar mission will be flown this evening over the SE Gulf of Mexico and around Matthew to determine the amplitude of the trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Matthew will continue to slow and turn toward the west in the next 24 hours and then make a fairly sharp right (northward turn) as the hurricane reaches the western edge of the ridge to its north and the eastern influences of the trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC forecast is nearly down the middle of the guidance envelope. On this track Matthew will approach if not directly strike the island of Jamaica as a potentially extremely dangerous hurricane…and effective at 400pm today a hurricane watch is issued for that island. Thereafter the hurricane will maintain a due north heading across Cuba and into the central Bahamas…hurricane watches will be required for portions of Cuba and the southern Bahamas on Saturday.

While the forecast in the day 4-5 time period is on more confidence this afternoon…it remains too soon to know for sure how or if Matthew will impact the east FL coast or the US east coast. It should be reminded that track erros at 96 and 120 hours can be upwards of 200 miles.

Intensity:

Matthew is clearly overachieving this afternoon and is now above most intensity guidance. There appears little to suggest weakening of the hurricane in the short term and based on current recon information Matthew is in the middle of rapid intensification. Major hurricanes at this level tend to be guided by internal core dynamics…eyewall replacement cycles which result in fluctuations of intensity while external factors tend to not result in much intensity change as long as they are minor. The official forecast peaks Matthew in the next 24 hours around 145mph and then shows gradual weakening…it is possible that Matthew will maintain category 4 intensity toward landfall in Jamaica…which would be a devastating hurricane event for that island. Thereafter land interaction with the higher terrain of eastern Cuba may result in more rapid weakening…but Matthew is likely to remain a large and powerful hurricane northward into the Bahamas.

[DoctorMu]

Cat 5.


Matthew bombs out at 160 mph.

[DoctorMu]

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Powerful Hurricane Matthew heading for the northern Caribbean Sea.

A devastating hurricane event for Haiti, eastern Cuba, and much of the Bahamas

Discussion:

Matthew passed directly over NOAA buoy 42058 overnight…with the buoy recording a surface pressure of 943mb and peak wave heights of 33 feet and max wind gusts of nearly 80kts (see attached trace below). It is somewhat surprising that the buoy survived the impact of the hurricane…especially the 33 foot swells. There is an incredible pressure and wind gradient associated with Matthew as shown by the wind speed and pressure trace. Last USAF mission indicated the SW portion of the eyewall had eroded and it is possible that Matthew has begun an eyewall replacement cycle…although the aircraft nor the NOAA buoy showed a secondary wind maximum in the tight wind field. It is more likely that dry air on the west side of the hurricane continues to wrap into the inner core and disrupt the eyewall. Matthew has finally turned northward and has maintained a 360 heading at around 5kts overnight. On this heading Matthew will near the SW coast of Haiti later today and tonight.

Track:

While Matthew has finally turned to the north, the long delay in this northward turn over the weekend along with the continued slow forward motion is now leading to potential trouble toward the end of this week. As mentioned yesterday morning the extended portion of the forecast track including if Matthew impacts the US coast is highly driven by several factors one of which is the forward motion of the hurricane.

Matthew will continue northward over the next 24-48 hours crossing extreme western Haiti and eastern Cuba and then turning NNW in the southern Bahamas. The large ridge of high pressure east of the hurricane allowing it to turn northward and a trough over the SE Gulf of Mexico also helping it to move northward will realign by the middle of the week as a deep trough moves into the central US. This incoming trough will build ridging over the eastern US and potentially bridge the ridge over the western Atlantic with high pressure over the NE US. This forces Matthew to turn more NW over the Bahamas and possibly move much closer to FL and the SE US coast.

While it is still too soon to know for sure if Matthew will directly impact FL or the SE US coast, the model guidance has shifted westward overnight and is starting to indicate much more riding NE of the hurricane by late this week which either will delay a turn toward the NE or bring Matthew close to the US SE coast. The factors that will be controlling the path of Matthew in the extended portion of the forecast are have been trending more toward a possible US threat…the biggest being the very slow ejection of Matthew northward which thus far the models have not handled well.

Intensity:

Matthew continues to look fairly poor on satellite images with ragged deep convection and its continued “blob” off to the east of the main central deep overcast. Matthew does not look like your normal powerful hurricane and some of this is due to the tiny size of the inner core. While conditions appear favorable for Matthew to maintain its category 3 or 4 intensity…land interaction with Haiti and eastern Cuba in the next 24 hours will likely produce some weakening especially with a hurricane with such a small inner core which can be very vulnerable to external factors such as landmasses and especially mountains. We will have to see what kind of shape Matthew emerges into the Bahamas as before having a good understanding of the intensity potential toward the middle and end of the week. It is likely that Matthew will move NNW/NW across nearly the entire Bahama island chain as a significant hurricane and may actually intensify as it moves through this area. The interaction with land will also likely begin to expand the wind field which has thus far failed to happen do to the lack of any eyewall replacements. This expansion of the wind field will also become important toward the end of the week…as even is Matthew remains off the US coast it could bring adverse conditions to portions of the SE US.

Catastrophic impacts are expected tonight over SW Haiti where west to east mountains will be perpendicular to the eastern semi-circle of the circulation resulting in extraordinary rainfall amounts. Rainfall totals in the next 24-48 hours will averaged 12-24 inches with isolated amounts of 36-40 inches possible resulting in catastrophic mudslides. Storm surge of 7-12 feet will be possible near where the eastern eyewall crosses SW Haiti, but the very small wind field should help to mitigate the overall storm surge impacts.

Note: US sounding stations in FL and the SE US coast starting launching 06Z and 18Z balloons yesterday in support of NHC forecasting operations.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Matthew…at most powerful hurricane…strikes SW Haiti

A serious hurricane threat to FL and the US SE coast….state of emergency for FL and NC.

Discussion:

Northern eyewall of Matthew being tracked by USAF aircraft and radar from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba show the northern eyewall of extremely intense hurricane Matthew has crossed the SW coast of Haiti. Matthew completed an eyewall replacement cycle overnight just before landfall and the eye cleared out and was about the best defined as it has been the entire life cycle of Matthew thus far. Last reports from the USAF mission were sustained winds of around 145mph with peak flight level winds of 142kts (164mph)…and Matthew is currently landfalling as an intense category 4 hurricane…the first category 4 to strike Haiti since hurricane Cleo in 1964. The loss of life in Haiti will be staggering as most homes are tents or made of tin and stand no chance against 145mph winds. Rainfall amounts of 20-30 inches will lead to catastrophic mud slides down the 7,000 ft mountains

IR loop of eye landfall:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

GMO (Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar)
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

Track:

Matthew now a very serious threat to FL and the SE US coast.

After a significant shift of the model guidance to the west yesterday, the guidance has remained fairly steady overnight with a continued high threat of impact to the SE US coast. Matthew has been moving slightly east of due north overnight and will begin to turn N and NNW over the next 24 hours as the hurricane begins to feel high pressure ridging to its NE and E. This high pressure is stronger than expected over the weekend which is requiring the track of Matthew to be shifted westward and is now forecast to be close enough to bring TS/Hurricane conditions to the east coast of FL and then all along the entire SE US coast. Any additional required adjustments of the track west would likely bring the dangerous core of Matthew into the heavily populated east coast of FL and then a final landfall across SC/NC. The current NHC forecast track keeps Matthews center only 75 miles off the FL east coast and only 64 miles off of the Charleston area of SC…which is well within the track error at days 3-5. It will not take much of a shift in the track of Matthew to bring damaging hurricane conditions to the coast of nearly all of the SE US.

Based on the current forecast track and the expected expansion of the wind field of Matthew as it progresses into the Bahamas a Hurricane Watch will be needed for the FL east coast later this morning.

Preparations for the landfall of a dangerous major hurricane should be underway along the SE US coast from FL to NC.

Intensity:

After attempting several times to complete an eyewall replacement over the last several days…it would appear that Matthew may have finally completed such a cycle overnight…at about the worst possible timing. Prior to landfall the eye had become very defined and cleared out on IR images suggesting the hurricane was intensifying as the outer eyewall contracted inward. This means Matthew was an intensifying strong category 4 hurricane at landfall this morning on the SW Haiti coast. As Matthew interacts with the mountains of Haiti and eastern Cuba the hurricane will likely weaken and it remains to be seen in what shape Matthew emerges in the southern Bahamas.

Conditions appear favorable for Matthew to regain some intensity over the Bahamas with light winds aloft and warm sea surface temperatures and Matthew is expected to remain a dangerous category 3 hurricane across much of the Bahamas chain. Toward days 4-5 Matthew may begin to feel the effects of an upper level trough over the Midwest which may produce some SW shear over the system, but this is uncertain and Matthew is forecast to be a powerful category 2/3 hurricane as it moves along the FL to NC coast Thursday-Saturday.

Damaging winds, storm surge, and flooding rainfall will all be possible along the SE US coast from Thursday to Saturday. It is too soon to know where or if the core of Matthew will impact either the east coast of FL or actually landfall in SC/NC. However the track of the system nearly parallel to the entire SE US coast along with the hurricane growing in size will likely result in a large amount of US coast being subjected to adverse conditions.

Note:

US sounding stations will continue to launch 06Z and 18Z soundings in support of NHC forecast operations.

High altitude NOAA aircraft will fly upper air sampling missions every 12 hours around Matthew with USAF missions tasked about every 6-8 hours.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday evening briefing from Jeff:

Matthew devastates Haiti…battering eastern Cuba…takes aim at the Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is issued from Golden Beach FL to the Brevard/Volusia County line. This watch will likely need to be extended northward later this evening or early Thursday.

Dangerous hurricane event increasingly likely for FL and the SE US coast. Preparations for the impact of a major hurricane should be underway along the highly populated E FL coast.

Discussion:

Matthew struck SW Haiti this morning and is currently making landfall over eastern Cuba with sustained winds of 140mph. The hurricane has maintained a well defined eye per Guantanamo Bay radar today and the disruption of the inner core over Haiti was minimal. Matthew is starting to expand in size likely due to land interaction and an eyewall replacement cycle that completed just prior to landfall this morning. Hurricane force winds extend outward 45 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds 185 miles. The latest pressure by the USAF aircraft was 949mb

Track:

Track guidance has shift a little more to the west today and the threat of Matthew now striking a large portion of the east FL coast is real. Both the GFDL, ECMWF, and UKMET models now show a direct hit of the core of Matthew into the heavily populated barrier island that runs along much of the FL east coast from near West Palm Beach northward to near Jacksonville. The official NHC track has been shifted very close to the FL east coast and is close enough that the damaging core of Matthew may impact much of the coast. It should be clearly noted that since the hurricane will be moving nearly along or just offshore of the coast that a small deviation of only 10-15 miles could mean the difference between major hurricane conditions or weak hurricane conditions.

Matthew will then turn N to NNE as the high pressure that will induce the NW turn in the Bahamas shifts eastward and a trough approaches the hurricane from the NW. This track brings Matthew right along or just offshore of the entire SE US coast from EC FL to the NC Outer Banks with a possible landfall over SC/NC this weekend. The confidence in the track beyond Thursday evening is somewhat poor as the hurricane may in fact strike the FL coast and move slightly more westward than currently forecast…or more in line with the ECMWF model which would result in changes to the downstream track. Additionally some of the model guidance is showing a hard right (eastward) turn of the hurricane after striking or brushing FL which might spare the Carolinas…it is too soon to tell how close Matthew may come to that portion of the coast.

Intensity:

Matthew will likely weakening some tonight as the circulation interacts with Cuba and Haiti…but conditions are very favorable for intensification over the Bahamas and it is likely that the entire Bahamas island chain will feel the force of a major hurricane over the next 24-36 hours. Matthew if forecast to remain a major category 3 or higher hurricane as far north as the latitude of Jacksonville, FL with some weakening possible during the later period. Should Matthew directly strike the FL east coast then significant changes would be required at the longer ranges to show much more weakening than forecasted currently.

Impacts:

Matthew poses a potentially significant threat to the FL east coast and much of the SE US coast including GA and SC where strong hurricane hits are rare due to the concave shape of the coast….this is especially true around the Jacksonville, FL area. At this time hurricane conditions with sustained winds above 75mph are likely in the hurricane watch area and should Matthew shift slightly more to the west sustained winds of 100-115mph would rake the FL east from West Palm Beach northward to near Jacksonville including Cape Canaveral.

Storm surge flooding of 10-15 ft above the ground is likely across nearly all of the Bahamas Islands…which will be devastating. Storm surge flooding of 3-5 feet above ground level is possible along the FL east coast barrier island from West Palm Beach northward along with 10-15 foot waves which will likely breach and overtop dune protection and result in considerable damage to coastal structures.

FL Storm Surge Inundation Map from Matthew NHC Advisory # 27:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents


A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the FL east coast from north of West Palm Beach to north of Cape Canaveral.


Impacts are likely northward along the SE US coast especially in the SC/NC area…but it is too early to know the specifics.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Matthew begins his assault on the Bahamas

Hurricane Warnings are issued for the FL east coast from N of Golden Beach to Sabastian Inlet including West Palm Beach and the Space Coast

Hurricane Watch is extended N for the FL E coast from Sebastian Inlet to the Florida/Georgia border including Jacksonville and Orlando

Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the Florida Keys to Florida Bay including Miami-Dade.

Preparations for the landfall of a major hurricane should be rushed to completion in the hurricane warning area.

Discussion:
Matthew has moved off the northern coast of eastern Cuba this morning and into the southern Bahamas. Latest USAF mission found a central pressure of 962mb and flight level winds around 118kts indicating the high mountains of eastern Cuba were able to disrupt the inner core of the hurricane. Maximum sustained winds have been reduced to 125mph making Matthew a strong category 3 hurricane. Additionally, IR images now longer show a defined eye and deep convection until recently was moderate. Recent satellite trends are starting to show the formation of deep thunderstorms over the NW/W portion of the center of circulation and an eye feature is starting to return.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will overspread much of the Bahamas today and approach SE FL on Thursday.

Track:
Matthew is either going to brush very close to the eastern FL coast or make a direct landfall on Friday. Forecast models overnight remain similar in their track of Matthew turning NW today and crossing the Bahamas and then moving nearly parallel to the entire eastern coast of FL Friday into Saturday. Several of the models and ensemble members have the center actually crossing the coast or moving right along the beaches or just a few tens of miles offshore…all of which will result in the core of Matthew impacting a large section of the FL east coast. While it is certainly possible that Matthew remains just offshore…the hurricane force wind radius on the western side of the storm is likely to bring hurricane conditions to the coast. Residents in the hurricane watch and warning area should be preparing for a direct impact of the core of this hurricane.

The extended portion of the forecast track is showing some significant changes overnight. The trough over the Midwest currently was expected to be strong enough to capture Matthew and bring the hurricane N and NNE into the Carolinas coast and then NE off the NE US coast early next week. The latest global runs now show the trough not being able to capture Matthew and instead leave the hurricane behind to perform a large loop over the Atlantic off the SE US coast and a possible second threat/landfall to the Bahamas or FL. This latest change in the track reasoning may end up sparing a direct landfall over NC, but also means portions of the SE US coast will still be dealing with Matthew next week as its path is effectively blocked by building high pressure over the NE US behind the trough

Needless to say the forecast track beyond early Saturday morning is of low confidence and it is difficult at this time to determine what impacts Matthew will have on the coast of SC and NC.

Intensity:
Conditions over the Bahamas look favorable for intensification of Matthew and the current NHC forecast brings the hurricane to 130mph in 24 hours. It is possible that Matthew could be stronger than currently indicated given low shear and very warm waters and the history of hurricanes intensifying in the Bahamas. Matthew will approach the FL east coast as a major hurricane cat 3 or 4 and it is now very likely that the core of damaging winds with Matthew will impact the highly populated hurricane warning area.

Toward the day 3-5 period upper level winds will become increasingly stronger out of the SW and likely begin to result in some weakening…but Matthew will remain a hurricane through the next 5 days.

Impacts:
Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are likely over SE/E FL starting Thursday from the FL Keys northward to the Space coast. Damaging hurricane conditions are likely Thursday night and Friday from West Palm Beach northward to Jacksonville. Sustained winds of 80-100mph will be possible along the coast and if Matthew tracks only 10-20 miles further west sustained winds of 115-125mph will be possible. Significant to extensive damage is likely if the core of Matthew intersects the coast especially near Cape Canaveral.

Much of the eastern shore of FL is lined with a barrier island which has been highly developed in the last many years…but acts as a natural hurricane defense to the mainland. Storm surge and wave action will be directed into this barrier island with current storm surge inundation above ground level of 3-5 feet in the hurricane warning area with wave action of 10-15 feet. This will result in extensive damage to the Atlantic facing beaches, overtopping and breaching of dunes, and the likely undermining of beach front structures to the point of collapse. The coastal shelf off the FL east coast is fairly deep which results in generally lower storm surges compared to portions of the Gulf coast…however the concave shape of the NE FL and GA coast will result in significant storm surge flooding in the Jacksonville and potentially the Savannah areas even if Matthew remains off the coast

Rainfall amounts of 6-10 inches will be likely along the coast of FL and GA possibly into SC.

Actions:
Mandatory evacuations have been ordered along portions of the FL east coast overnight and this morning…mainly for the barrier islands and the inlet areas which connect the Atlantic to the FL mainland.

The state of SC will begin a mandatory evacuation of the entire SC coast effective at 300pm today including Charleston and Myrtle Beach. SC DOT will activate freeway lane reversal (contraflow) and all outbound major freeways lanes

[sau27]

I feel kind of dumb for asking this but I always think about it with these east coast storms. Quite often it seems like storms along the east coast skirt the coastline without fully moving ashore and inland. Is there a geographic related reason for this or is it just coincidence with timing of steering features?

[tireman4]

That is a pro met question...( Andrew, Srain, Wxman57, Brooks, David, Blake)...I have no idea..

[srainhoutx]

I feel kind of dumb for asking this but I always think about it with these east coast storms. Quite often it seems like storms along the east coast skirt the coastline without fully moving ashore and inland. Is there a geographic related reason for this or is it just coincidence with timing of steering features?

Typically in October the Westerlies kick in across the Continent and troughs pick up the storms and move them on East of the Eastern Seaboard. Unfortunately the current trough across Southern Canada/Northern Plains is not as strong as what was thought this past weekend and will likely steer Matthew precariously close to the Florida Peninsula. That said Global Hawk High Altitude Mission has been sampling the Gulf early this morning and the NOAA G-V is sampling the Eastern Gulf now enroute to sample ahead and around Matthew. Hopefully the additional data will provide some clarity in the upcoming model solutions about the future track of Matthew and what potential impacts it could have for the East Coast and the I-95 Corridor.



Mimic shows that Matthew has made a turn to the NW and is regaining its inner core as it moves away from Eastern Cuba.

[texoz]

Hope people on east coast of FL are preparing like they will get hit with a major cane because it's way too close to call at this point. Even if no direct hit, it's going to be rough.

[DoctorMu]

Hope people on east coast of FL are preparing like they will get hit with a major cane because it's way too close to call at this point. Even if no direct hit, it's going to be rough.

West Palm Beach to Melbourne and above need to get pretty serious as Matthew bears left.

[tireman4]

I have kin folks in Ft. Lauderdale and vicinities around. They are ready....

[jasons2k]

I have to say I really enjoyed Avila's discussion this afternoon. Laying-out the key points as a list, in plain language, is a great way to communicate the message. Kudos to the NHC! :

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a couple of hours ago
indicated that the structure of Matthew had not changed very much,
and the initial intensity remains at 105 kt. Another Hurricane
Hunter plane will be in the eye soon. The environment continues to
be favorable for Matthew to restrengthen while it approaches the
the east coast of Florida during the next day or so. After that
time, the shear is forecast to increase significantly, resulting in
gradual weakening of the hurricane.

Satellite images indicate that Matthew is moving toward the
northwest or 325 degrees at about 10 kt. The subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic is still strong, and the flow pattern around
this ridge should continue to steer the hurricane toward the
northwest during the next day or two with no significant change in
forward speed. After that time, the ridge will shift eastward,
allowing Matthew to move northward very near or over the north
Florida east coast, and then near or to the east of the Georgia and
South Carolina coasts. By the end of the forecast period, models
diverge considerably, with the GFS moving the cyclone southwestward
toward land, and the ECMWF keeping Matthew over the Atlantic a good
distance from the coast. The NHC forecast keeps Matthew over water
in the middle of these two model solutions.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please
consult statements from the meteorological service and other
government officials in that country.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.
However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are
possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and
Georgia.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South
Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if
the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine
what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next
week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are
likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several
days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.

[Cromagnum]

This loop that the models are predicting 4-5 days out has my eyebrow raised. Is there any chance this hits Florida a 2nd time and plows on through into the gulf?

I mean, what the heck is up with this model track? Miami is in for double trouble

Http://i.giphy.com/l3vRn3lCYqBYhzwEo.gif