Tracking the Tropics:

[sambucol]

If this happens, what's our chance on the upper Texas coast this could hit us given the transition into fall weather patterns? Or is it unheard of for a hurricane to wander this far into the northwestern GOM this time of year?

[TexasBreeze]

The Euro stays on board with a powerful cane in the Caribbean. After briefly looking over another weather board....bow howdy, them Floridians WANT a major cane in a BAD way! lol They can have this one.

Happens every time that state is threatened it seems like! This one looks to be the big one of the season so far in the.models...

[Andrew]

If this happens, what's our chance on the upper Texas coast this could hit us given the transition into fall weather patterns? Or is it unheard of for a hurricane to wander this far into the northwestern GOM this time of year?

It's definitely possible. Too far to really say yet. Westerlies are becoming more and more common so you would really need to see an unusual period of strong ridging over the east coast. With that said, this storm is expected to be a very low latitude storm so it could avoid multiple weaknesses over the central and western Caribbean. Still very far out but models are rather bullish on strong development.

[unome]

It is worth noting that Reconnaissance Aircraft will begin positioning in St Croix either tomorrow or Monday in preparation to investigate this tropical disturbance.

they are already there - flying into Karl today out of U.S.V.I.

Non-Tasked Mission (Karl)
NOAA3 - Lockheed WP-3D Orion

Non-Tasked Mission (Karl)
NOAA9 - Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV)

http://hurricanecity.com/ (click on the "latest aircraft reconnaissance" tab below the map)

http://hurricanecity.com/recon/

https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/

https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA

[unome]

Global Hawk is also flying a NOAA SHOUT mission out of Wallops

https://uas.noaa.gov/shout/

https://uas.noaa.gov/shout/dataProducts.html

http://uas.noaa.gov/shout/viz/?active=avaps#

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NAS ... /KWAL/KWAL

latest vis image available from flight: http://uas.noaa.gov/shout/viz/camera/hd ... st_vis.jpg

[unome]

awesome Q&A from yesterday with Dr. Frank Marks, Director of the Hurricane Research Division at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and Commander Justin Kibbey, trained P-3 pilot of the NOAA Corps.

worth the read if you have the time:

https://www.thewinnower.com/papers/5428 ... s-anything

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southernmost
Cabo Verde Islands is moving westward at around 20 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands, the
southern Caribbean Sea, and the northern coast of South America
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

[srainhoutx]

12Z Track & Intensity Guidance for 97L:

[wxman57]

I see pretty good rotation near 8N/39W this morning (red crosshairs in the image below). No convection there, but good rotation (on TPW loop, too). It still looks like it will be fighting dry air until it moves into the Caribbean, though, so I am somewhat doubtful it will become a tropical storm east of the Caribbean, certainly doubtful of a strong storm or hurricane east of the islands.

Looks like a fair chance it will threaten the ABC islands as a hurricane, which is rare. I'm not so sure it will ever enter the Gulf of Mexico, though. It may well be drawn northward toward the Bahamas. Threat to the central Gulf coast & NW Gulf is looking less possible. Much will depend on where it develops as far as its eventual track.

[redneckweather]

I'm going to stick with a weaker system entering the Caribbean which has been the trend this entire tropical season. I believe it will develop but later than what models are currently showing.

[Texaspirate11]

I see pretty good rotation near 8N/39W this morning (red crosshairs in the image below). No convection there, but good rotation (on TPW loop, too). It still looks like it will be fighting dry air until it moves into the Caribbean, though, so I am somewhat doubtful it will become a tropical storm east of the Caribbean, certainly doubtful of a strong storm or hurricane east of the islands.

Looks like a fair chance it will threaten the ABC islands as a hurricane, which is rare. I'm not so sure it will ever enter the Gulf of Mexico, though. It may well be drawn northward toward the Bahamas. Threat to the central Gulf coast & NW Gulf is looking less possible. Much will depend on where it develops as far as its eventual track.

http://i67.tinypic.com/30m6bk0.jpg

I like this outlook.

[wxman57]

Models develop a deep trof along the East U.S. Coast extending down to the Yucatan and NW Caribbean by this coming weekend. That means SW winds aloft out ahead of this storm as it moves into the south-central Caribbean. The storm should be turned northward toward the Dominican Republic/Haiti or eastern Cuba in 7 days. Probably won't enter the Gulf, but it still could impact the SE U.S.

[unome]

http://hurricanecity.com/ (click on the "latest aircraft reconnaissance" tab below the map)

http://hurricanecity.com/recon/

https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/

https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA

"Miss Piggy" on her way to MacDill from St Croix, U.S.V.I. right now

Non-Tasked Mission (Train)
NOAA3 - Lockheed WP-3D Orion

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43

High Density Observations: http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... _page=hdob

[wxman57]

I wouldn't rule out a track like Hazel (1954) into the Carolinas, given the uncertainty beyond 7 days. However, I don't think that's the most likely solution. I think it will track across western Haiti or eastern Cuba in about 7 days then across the Bahamas by days 8-9 and stay east of the U.S. Could reach the Canadian Maritimes in 12-14 days.

Here's a screenshot from my workstation. You can see two buoys 360-400 miles NE and NW of the center.

[cperk]

Levi Cowan has great video on his website laying out the many scenarios that can play out with 97L.It is not as cut and dry as the GFS may currently suggest.

[Karen]

How far up the Carribbean will this go? I am leaving this weekend on a cruise

[srainhoutx]

How far up the Carribbean will this go? I am leaving this weekend on a cruise

Too soon to know for sure, but it appears as of this morning anywhere West of The Cayman Islands is OK.

First visible satellite imagery suggests this may be a Depression already. RECON will investigate later this afternoon. The overnight Ensemble guidance are basically in two camps. The GEFS recurves future Matthew in the Central Caribbean heading N across Hispaniola into the SE Bahamas while the ECMWF is a bit further West with the turn to the North impacting Jamaica/Cuba and possibly threatening Florida, but that is way beyond the 3 4 day range, so we will continue to watch.

[houstonia]

Didn't even see this one pop up!

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is
drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be
conducive for significant development before this system moves
inland over Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

While fall has moved across TX the last few days…it is still hurricane season.

Discussion:
A large and well defined tropical wave just east of the Windward Islands this morning is moving westward at 15-20mph. USAF mission yesterday afternoon was not able to find a closed low pressure center and a new mission is in progress at this time to determine is the strong wave axis has closed off a surface center. Satellite images show decent to well defined banding features across the northern part of the wave axis with deep convection this morning near a possible center. Upper level conditions are currently favorable for development, but wind shear does greatly increase across the Caribbean Sea just west of the wave. This wave will bring near tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall to the Windward Islands later today.

Track:
Global and hurricane model guidance is in good agreement on the track of this feature through the next 72-96 hours, before wide spread develops toward the day 5 and beyond period. The wave is south of a strong sub-tropical ridge of high pressure which will continue to force the feature toward the west and the guidance and ensemble clustering through 72 hours is very high and the confidence is high.

After 72 hours model guidance begins to greatly diverge on how to handle a break in the sub-tropical ridge near the US east coast and a trough of low pressure over the Ohio Valley. Some of the guidance including the GFS and most of its ensembles turn the system due north out of the southern Caribbean Sea and then across the Bahamas and near/along the US east coast. Another clustering takes the system more NW toward central Cuba and then around FL while a third clustering takes the system more WNW and NW toward the NW Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

The final track outcome will be determined on how the system interacts with the trough over the western Atlantic and if this trough is able to capture the system fully or if blocking high pressure develops over the NE US trapping the system in the northern Caribbean Sea or near the Bahamas/FL up to the NC coast. At this point it is too early to determine the level of rightward turn beyond day 3.

I strongly caution using individual model runs to assume any track potential beyond about day 3.

Intensity:
While the system is close to being a tropical storm and model guidance support for development is high….it should be noted that much of the intensity guidance has thus far been too aggressive in developing this system. Conditions across the Caribbean Sea moving forward appear to be favorable for development and most of the model guidance make this feature a hurricane and some a significant and large hurricane in the central Caribbean Sea this weekend.

[srainhoutx]

NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew, currently moving through the Windward Islands, at 11 AM EDT.