October 2016- More Cool Weather?

[tireman4]

Well, it is potent enough to knock our highs down to the low to mid 80's....


000
FXUS64 KHGX 051202
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
702 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR/KLBX/KGLS...Main concerns this morning will be a
few passing showers with most of these areas on the edge of
MVFR/IFR CIGS to the north. Deep moisture from the Gulf should
develop over SE TX to allow for showers to develop. For now think
any TSRA will be isolated and will amend TAF accordingly as
conditions warrant. MVFR CIGS will be possible tomorrow morning
but think model guidance is too aggressive with IFR CIGS. TAFs
will at least mention scattered cloud decks but keep VFR.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...Mix of MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS this morning as
combination of low stratus and fog develop. Think these conditions
will persist the next 2-3 hrs before winds begin to mix boundary
layer. With deep moisture from the Gulf developing over the area,
think there will be a small chance of a few showers for KCXO/KUTS
but shower activity likely stay east of KCLL. It will be possible
for an isolated TSRA but not confident enough to mention in TAFs
so will amend as necessary. Conditions look favorable for more
IFR/MVFR CIGS tomorrow morning so will mention at least MVFR
ceilings.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...
Diffluent upper flow today over Southeast Texas will give way to a
building upper ridge by Friday as an upper trough over the northern
plains moves into the Great Lakes. As the upper ridge begins to build
overhead, a cold front will move across Southeast Texas late Friday
and off the coast by early Saturday morning. A model consensus shows
a stronger ridge in place overhead through the weekend and into
Monday. By Wednesday of next week a mainly dry shortwave trough will
dig southward into Texas as it moves across the Southern Plains.

40

SHORT TERM...
Surface analysis this morning shows a frontal boundary across the
plains with weak low pressure over SW Oklahoma. High pressure
stretched from the NE U.S. through the Appalachians and SE U.S. into
Texas. This has allowed for mainly southeast winds across the region
with low level moisture returning to the area. Area radar show a few
showers off the Sabine Pass and the adjacent coastal waters of the
Gulf. Showers continue to develop off the Upper Texas Coast and may
push inland later this morning. IR satellite imagery shows some
cloud cover expanding over the area and causing MVFR/IFR CIGS to
develop at a few of the area terminals such as KCXO/KUTS. Upper
level analysis shows a broad trough over the western two thirds of
the U.S. or basically west of the Mississippi River. Two upper lows
were over the N Plains and the Pacific NW.

Today and tonight the upper low over the N Plains should rotate into
Canada while the Pacific NW system drops into the C Rockies. This
will continue to allow for southerly low level flow off the Gulf and
support shower activity today across SE Texas. SPC Mesoanalysis has
a plume of higher precipitable water values over the Gulf and this
should spread over the region today. The forecast will keep mainly
20 PoPs but there could be some pockets of higher rain chances
depending upon if any convection clusters together. High
temperatures today should again reach around 89-91F and head back to
low temperatures in the low 70s again tomorrow.

Overpeck

LONG TERM...
Main issues are temperatures and rain chances. Model consensus
still have POPS on the low side with best chances Thursday
afternoon. The models show the best moisture axis over the western
half of the forecast area on Thursday morning drying out as it moves
westward Thursday afternoon. The frontal passage looks dry as
subsidence will begin early on Friday from the building upper level
ridge. A drier airmass will the persist overhead through the first of
next week.

Daytime highs near 90 will be common again today and Thursday.
Subsidence from the upper level high pressure ridge will help
overcome the cooler air behind the front and may keep temperatures
slightly warmer than currently forecasted over the weekend. Still
expecting seasonably cooler than normal highs for most locations for
the start of the new week on Sunday. As the upper level shortwave
trough moves toward the state, a warmup should begin on Tuesday with
daytime highs warming to near or above normal.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 73 91 69 89 / 20 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 91 74 91 70 92 / 20 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 78 87 77 89 / 20 10 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...39

[DoctorMu]

Looks high and dry for the forseeable future.


Where's the subtropical jet when you need it?

[tireman4]

.SYNOPSIS...
Early this morning the surface front which is expected to affect
Southeast Texas later this week was located over northern Oklahoma. A
surface ridge of high pressure extended from the Mid Atlantic Region
into Southeast Texas. A low-level southeasterly flow was located over
the area from the surface up through 700 mb.

40

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Surface observations at 08Z showed temps mainly in the 70s and
dewpoint temps in the low 70s. Surface analysis at 08Z had a weak
surface trough along the High Plains with weak ridging stretching
along the Appalachians and Gulf coast. Pressure gradient supports SE
winds which is helping to maintain increased Gulf moisture.
Precipitable water analysis from SPC shows mainly 1.7 inches of PW
and 00Z sounding from LCH shows 1.8 inches. Area radar show widely
scattered showers over the coastal waters of the Upper Texas Coast.
These showers are starting to push inland affecting the coastal
areas this morning.

Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show a broad trough
over the western U.S. through the Midwest with an upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Shortwave trough now moving through the Four
Corners region should reach the Plains this afternoon and night.

Deep moisture should become more established over SE Texas west of I-
45 today and where shower activity should become more numerous. A
few thunderstorms will be possible as well but will be pulse type
storms. PoPs of 20 to 30 percent look on track for the forecast and
will maintain that thinking. Plume of higher moisture should
continue to slide west towards central Texas tonight into Friday.
Overall drier air will push into the area on Friday ahead of the
cold front due to boundary layer flow becoming more NE in response
to the pressure gradient changing with Hurricane Matthew moving
along the Atlantic coast of Florida.

Overpeck

&&

.LONG TERM...
Still a model consensus for the surface front to be pretty much rain
free as it moves through Southeast Texas late on Friday and off the
coast sometime late Friday evening or sometime shortly after
midnight. A drier airmass will move into the area behind the front;
however, an upper level high pressure area will build overhead and
help to keep the daytime temperatures from falling any lower than the
mid 80s on Saturday and Sunday. This upper level ridge will persist
over Southeast Texas through the first half of next week but may be
nudged southward on Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper level shortwave
moves across the Southern Plains. This pattern will help daytime
highs to slowly warm back into the upper 80s by Tuesday and
Wednesday.

40

&&

.MARINE...
Generally moderate southeast winds are expected today along the
Texas Gulf Coast, but these winds become northeast on Friday ahead
of a cold front. The front should slide off the coast Friday night
and Saturday. Winds increase to 15 to 20 knots behind the front
Saturday into Sunday which will help build seas in offshore areas.
Small craft exercise caution will likely be needed for Saturday into
Sunday morning. Winds should then decrease Monday and become
easterly. Seas will drop back to low levels.

Overpeck

&&

.TROPICAL...
As of 830Z IR satellite imagery Hurricane Matthew looks well
organized. Latest Air Force Recon has reported pressure falls down
to 945 mb and higher flight level/SFMR winds which would be
consistent with a more robust eye-wall structure seen in satellite
imagery. Matthew is well on its way to more intensification as it
tracks through the Bahamas. Hurricane Matthew will continue on a
NW/NNW track towards the Atlantic Florida coast. Latest guidance
looks good for a track parallel to the Florida coast and then curving
just off the South Carolina coast. The latest 00Z GFS continues a
trend to loop Matthew back towards Florida but it becomes sheared
apart while doing so. The ECMWF has a similar track but maintains
mid/low level vortex. Hurricane Matthew will continue to test the
limits of tropical forecasting both in track and in intensity.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 69 90 65 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 90 71 92 66 89 / 20 10 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 76 88 74 86 / 20 10 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[jasons2k]

No rain in weeks - no rain on the horizon - the 10-year drought continues in earnest. I'm glad most folks across SE Texas got a reprieve over the last year or so...

[jasons2k]

Sad when out towards San Angelo, Del Rio, Abilene areas get rain and we don't get squat. Just isn't right - smh...

[srainhoutx]

No rain in sight, but cooler/drier air has arrived for the weekend into early Monday. Low temperatures Monday morning may flirt with the upper 40's/low 50's N of I-10.

[Katdaddy]

Refreshing weather continues inland after this morning's cold front but also brought a pressure gradient offshore leading to gusty winds.

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

.THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH BEHIND
SATURDAY MORNINGS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE
NORTHERLIES.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-091200-
/O.CON.KHGX.SC.Y.0050.161009T0000Z-161009T1200Z/
MATAGORDA BAY-GALVESTON BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
348 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KNOTS...GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

* SEAS...4 TO NEAR 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

[ticka1]

need a little rain

[A.V.]

Honestly, I don't mind prolonged dryness from the October-April period; in fact, I wouldn't complain if Dec-Feb all were desert dry, with nothing but sunshine. As long as the summer/warm season is wet, the rest of the year doesn't matter.

[Cromagnum]

Honestly, I don't mind prolonged dryness from the October-April period; in fact, I wouldn't complain if Dec-Feb all were desert dry, with nothing but sunshine. As long as the summer/warm season is wet, the rest of the year doesn't matter.

Badly need some rain though, especially as folks try to get some winterization and premergents into their lawns.

[DoctorMu]

Honestly, I don't mind prolonged dryness from the October-April period; in fact, I wouldn't complain if Dec-Feb all were desert dry, with nothing but sunshine. As long as the summer/warm season is wet, the rest of the year doesn't matter.

You've just described Florida.

[Katdaddy]

An amazing and beautiful SE TX sunset this evening.

[Karen]

When will the next front pass hoping for this cool weather again next weekend

[Katdaddy]

Enjoy the cool SE TX weather this morning. Its 48F in Conroe and Hunstville. Temps and moisture will increase through the week. Slight rain chances arrive Tuesday with the increasing Gulf moisture. By the end of the week temps will be running 7-10 degree above normal as the next front stalls in NTX.

[wxman57]

Brrr! It's too cold in Houston. Time to fly to Orlando where it's warmer!

Possibly another cold front through SE TX around the 20th. Next weekend looks nice and warm for some biking when we return from Florida.

[DoctorMu]

Enjoy the cool SE TX weather this morning. Its 48F in Conroe and Hunstville. Temps and moisture will increase through the week. Slight rain chances arrive Tuesday with the increasing Gulf moisture. By the end of the week temps will be running 7-10 degree above normal as the next front stalls in NTX.

Have loved the low dew point and reducing A/C bill. We had some rain with the last front passage - will have to wait about 10 more days for the next one. Nice dew points until Wed, then the nasty wet, smelly blanket of humidity and SE winds returns.

It may be the ENSO shift, but no so Jet in sight.

[srainhoutx]

Gulf moisture increased quickly overnight to bring scattered showers well inland for a lucky few. Looks like very warm temperatures are ahead throughout the medium and extended range (October 20th or so) and the possibility of more tropical mischief developing in the SW Caribbean that may pose a threat to Florida in the longer range.

[BlueJay]

Sprink

[Texaspirate11]

Nice rain by the bay.

[Katdaddy]

.21" this morning at house in League City which was well needed.