October 2016- More Cool Weather?

[davidiowx]

It is REALLY coming down in Stafford right now. Definitely much needed.

[A.V.]

Honestly, I don't mind prolonged dryness from the October-April period; in fact, I wouldn't complain if Dec-Feb all were desert dry, with nothing but sunshine. As long as the summer/warm season is wet, the rest of the year doesn't matter.

You've just described Florida.

Even better than Florida is this:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goa

[Katdaddy]

Widely scattered isolated showers and thundershowers possible the next few days. Mainly partly to mostly sunny skies through the rest of the week and into the weekend across SE TX. The next cool front still looks to stall before entering SE TX tomorrow and Friday and the weekend will feel more Summer-like than Fall. The yard enjoyed yesterday's 0.62" rainfall.

[tireman4]

The last vestiges of Summer are still around. Fall is coming..shorter days...longer nights. This is the bi-polar part of Fall.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2016

.AVIATION...
Radar, satellite and surface observations show main areas of lower ceilings/
fog/showers early this morning are to the west of our TAF sites. Think
most of the sites will stay VFR today after possibly brief MVFR/IFR
conditions generally in a 12Z-14Z time period. With enough daytime
heating, some SHRA development could get close to some of our inland
TAF sites (maybe closest to CLL?), but not confident enough to mention
in the 12Z package. Models generally had this morning`s lower ceilings
and fog a little further off to the west, so not a whole lot of forecaster
confidence on how things will pan out today and tonight. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
In general, upper ridging remains the primary weather driver over
the next week, bringing above average temperatures and precip
chances that are, for the most part, low. However, there will be a
couple opportunities for sporadic increases in precip potential.
However, this is relatively speaking, and even the highest PoPs
don`t stray terribly far from climo.

Today and tonight...
The plume of Gulf moisture that helped fuel
scattered showers across the Houston metro Tuesday morning has
slid down the coast, with isolated to widely scattered showers
over the Gulf waters and immediate coastal areas around Matagorda
Bay. Expect this moisture plume to linger - and indeed, models
even keep it in place in a limited fashion from that area
northeastward across far inland portions of the area. Between that
and potential upglide with the lighter onshore flow, keep slight
chances in place over a surprisingly large area. Given the trend
of tapering off in shower activity, went with slight chances here.
Otherwise, expect middle to upper 80s temps.

Thursday through the weekend...
A cold front will approach the region in this timeframe. Globals
like the GFS and Euro remain unconvinced in the forward progress
of this front into SE Texas with a relatively stout upper ridge
over South Texas. The NAM still does bring the front, or at least
some type of convergent pre-frontal trough in to kick off a
rainy/stormy Thursday, but I decidedly trust the way the globals
are handling the interaction of the upper trough/ridge
interaction and lean the forecast heavily that way.

Next week...
The weekend looks drier and warmer as the northern stream trough
moves on and weak ridging again becomes the main attraction.
Things become much more complex deeper into the week as a powerful
jet streak currently over the Pacific crashes ashore. There is
significant difference in how the guidance handles this situation
so the details are quite fuzzy. However, at some point a more
powerful trough should work into the Central US mid to late week
and bring back temperatures closer to normal and the next
meaningful potential for precip beyond isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection.

MARINE...
Elevated onshore winds are expected to decrease today. Look for
mainly light to moderate south to southeast winds to persist for
the remainder of the week, the upcoming weekend, and through at
least the first half of next week. Generally expect to see seas
at 2 to 4 feet through the period. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 71 84 68 86 / 20 10 20 20 20
Houston (IAH) 87 73 86 72 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 85 77 84 76 84 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...42

[StormOne]

Coming back to Houston this weekend. Looks like the weather will be Summer-like there. In contrast, we are currently under a Freeze Warning here

[BlueJay]

Coming back to Houston this weekend. Looks like the weather will be Summer-like there. In contrast, we are currently under a Freeze Warning here

Yikes! This is another reason why I like living in Texas!

[DoctorMu]

Honestly, I don't mind prolonged dryness from the October-April period; in fact, I wouldn't complain if Dec-Feb all were desert dry, with nothing but sunshine. As long as the summer/warm season is wet, the rest of the year doesn't matter.

You've just described Florida.

Even better than Florida is this:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goa

The Western Ghats and the beaches look great. Not a fan of dew points over 70F though...but gotta love the sea breeze.




...and on cue - they're back! in BCS. Gotta hang on another week and I think that should be the end of 90°+ temps and 70°+ DPs.

[srainhoutx]

While our local weather is very quiet, the Pacific NW and Northern California are preparing for Hurricane force winds and extremely heavy rainfall over the next 5 days. Perhaps a hint of a pattern change coming for our Region in the next 7 to 10 days.

[ticka1]

While our local weather is very quiet, the Pacific NW and Northern California are preparing for Hurricane force winds and extremely heavy rainfall over the next 5 days. Perhaps a hint of a pattern change coming for our Region in the next 7 to 10 days.

Will any of this system affect us or will it move across the northern states?

[DoctorMu]

At last, liquid gold from the sky!

Not bringing the umbrella paid off. Worth getting soaked.

[Ounce]

While our local weather is very quiet, the Pacific NW and Northern California are preparing for Hurricane force winds and extremely heavy rainfall over the next 5 days. Perhaps a hint of a pattern change coming for our Region in the next 7 to 10 days.

Looking at the Portland NWS Forecast Discussion, they mention an "Ides of October storm" to hit them.

The next significant storm, now referred as the Ides of October
storm, incorporates the remains of Typhoon Songda, which is currently
around 42N, 175E. As the remains of this typhoon enter the 180-200
kt Jet Stream over the Central Pacific, it will get entrained into
the storm track and become the system which will impact the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday.

[Katdaddy]

A 20% to 30% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon for SE TX as we welcome Summer back through early next week.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Near record high temperatures expected this weekend as summer continues.

A weak cool front has stalled over the northern portions of SE TX overnight yielding a few showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. A short wave trough crossing north TX currently is producing a line of strong thunderstorms which is sagging southward. Short term meso scale models are showing a little bit more activity today than they were showing yesterday especially north of I-10 where the frontal boundary is stalled and the lift from the tail end of the short wave is strongest.

After today…sub-tropical ridging will return to the region with temperatures rising to near early to mid September levels instead of mid October. Overnight lows will only fall into the 70’s with highs in the lower 90’s. Could be near record highs both Saturday and Sunday along with humid conditions will push heat index values to near 100.

Little change in the upper level pattern into at least the start of next week before the current storm system which will be assaulting the Pacific NW moves into the central plains by the middle of next week. This storm system will bring our next best chance for rainfall and potentially a strong cold front to the region around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. This is still well out in time and the details remain vague at this point…but something to watch.

[DoctorMu]

Outflow boundary preceding the cold front approaching CLL. We had a nice bolus of rain yesterday and are topping off the tank.

If the price to pay is 70°F+ dew points and 90°F+ temps until Wednesday for the rain, I'll gladly accept the punishment. Actually, if the breeze picked up more typical of Spring, it wouldn't be so bad. Late Summer/Early Fall is a nadir for wind in the Brazos Valley.

[srainhoutx]

Warm weather looks to continue throughout the weekend into early next week, but changes are lurking mid to late next week as a strong fall cold front begins to push across Texas Wednesday into Thursday. Rain chances gradually increase Wednesday as this strong frontal boundary pools Gulf moisture across the Region with the possibility of a strong thunderstorm or two Wednesday afternoon into the early morning hours of Thursday as the cold front pushes into the Coastal Waters.

The overnight guidance indicate gusty Northerly breezes sweep across the area Thursday as a strong Canadian High builds across the Southern Plains. Early indications suggest as this Canadian High builds across Texas, winds decouple allowing for the coolest air of the Fall Season, possibly in the mid to upper 40's including Metro Houston to arrive next Friday night/early Saturday.

[Katdaddy]

One last Summer weekend ongoing across SE TX with tropical skies and temps in the upper 80s and low 90s. The transition begins mid-week as a strong cold front moves across TX and into the GOM Thursday afternoon. Awaiting more details from Houston-Galveston NWS AFD.

[tireman4]

Goodness gracious. If you love Summer, this is your time. Today through Wednesday, man oh man. Sweatfest for me and my running ( and biking)....If you love Fall, Thursday onward is your time. As Srain and Katdaddy alluded too, we will be toasting the next three days, with Fall coming late week.

00
FXUS64 KHGX 171203
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
703 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016


.AVIATION...
Low MVFR/IFR decks generally remaining north of Houston metro
though 14-15Z. Metro and southern terminals may experience a
brief hour or two of periodic MVFR decks with fog being confined
to more wind sheltered (CXO) or rural open expanse (LBX) hubs.
Region-wide scattering out past 15Z...VFR through the day. Near
20 knot off-the-surface southerlies will mix down this afternoon,
especially west of metro, translating to 10-15 mph sustained surface
winds. Little change in the large scale weather pattern suggests a
repeat concerning early Tuesday morning (returning) low MVFR ceilings.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably warm and near record high temperatures will continue
for a couple more days across much of Southeast Texas with a
persistent onshore flow at the surface and ridging in the mid/upper
levels. Heights fall starting on Wednesday as the ridge moves off
to the east, and this will help to lower our afternoon highs a couple
degrees. The well advertised strong cold front and associated
increasing rain chances are still on schedule to move across
Southeast Texas Wednesday night through Thursday. It will become
breezy (especially near the coast) and cooler behind the front as
surface high pressure begins to build into the area. A northwest
flow aloft and offshore surface winds will help to bring our area
mostly clear skies with lows generally in the 50s and highs
generally in the 70s Thursday night through Saturday night. Onshore
winds come back to the area beginning on Sunday as the surface high
moves off to the east resulting in warming temperatures, and at this
time it looks like this trend will persist through at least the first
half of next week.

Here are area record highs for the next two days:

Today Tuesday
-College Station: 92 in 1915 92 in 2004
-Houston IAH: 93 in 1895 96 in 1895
-Houston HOU: 91 in 1972 94 in 1947
-Galveston: 88 in 2003 87 in 2007

42

MARINE...
Generally light, to occasionally moderate, southeastern flow over 2
to 3 foot nearshore/3 to 4 foot offshore seas through mid week. The
cold front (or pre-frontal wind shift trough) is timed to reach the
coast and local Gulf waters Thursday morning with cold air advection
and a tight backside gradient strengthening offshore winds early
Friday. Areawide precipitation will fill in just downstream of the
approaching front Wednesday through early Friday. Friday morning
advisory level winds driving up nearshore seas to 5 feet/offshore to
around 7 or 8 feet. The progressive eastward movement of the exiting
trough will have western high pressure filling in its wake Saturday.
Thus, conditions will significantly improve Saturday into Sunday. A
moderate northeast wind to start out the weekend will weaken and
veer more east Sunday, 2 to 4 foot average seas Saturday will lower
to around 2 to 3 feet Sunday. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 72 91 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 92 72 92 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 87 77 87 78 86 / 10 10 10 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31

[tireman4]

Ughh...just ughh. If you love Summer, today and tomorrow are your days for celebration. If you love Fall, then Thursday begins your joy.


00
FXUS64 KHGX 181747
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1247 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
Visible satellite shows mainly stratocu cloud streets aligned
with boundary layer flow. Overall expect VFR CIGS through the
afternoon and evening. LLJ will be running 15-20kts again about
2000-3000ft AGL so expect another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings for
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. KCXO may still have visibility down to LIFR
levels. Otherwise Houston terminals should be on the edge of MVFR
ceilings but will keep VFR in TAF. May get some fog again at KLBX
as has been the case the last few mornings.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Another warm/rain-free day on tap as the upper high lingers over
the area. Current forecast appears to be on track and no changes
are planned at this time. 41

High Temperature Records
TODAY 10/18 WEDS 10/19
CLL 92-2004 97-1921
IAH 96-1895 94-2004
HOU 94-1947 90-2004
GLS 87-2007 86-2004

[jasons2k]

The NWS AFD noted some disagreement for next week between the Euro (wetter) and the GFS (drier with ridging). We shall see - hope the Euro is right.

On anther note, they lowered Thursday's rain chances from 50% down to 40%. I hope this isn't a trend...

[Katdaddy]

Dense fog across inland areas of SE TX. Another hot tropical October day ahead for SE TX with increasing moisture with scattered showers along the Upper TX Coast. A line of scattered thunderstorms will move across SE TX tomorrow with the well advertised cold front. Hopefully the area get some well needed rainfall ahead of the front before perfect Fall weather arrives