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Starting the thread ... the talk of a January 2007 analog is exciting. For us in Austin, we experienced a multi-day winter weather event with sleet and freezing rain which pretty much shut down the city for two days. In fact, we had 80 consecutive hours of at or below freezing during that event. And I believe you H-town folks had it even worse. Bears watch!

I'm not looking forward to such a scenario...

Portastorm wrote:Starting the thread ... the talk of a January 2007 analog is exciting. For us in Austin, we experienced a multi-day winter weather event with sleet and freezing rain which pretty much shut down the city for two days. In fact, we had 80 consecutive hours of at or below freezing during that event. And I believe you H-town folks had it even worse. Bears watch!

Bring it! As a matter of fact juice up January 2007 on steroids and unleash the cold hounds on Texas for a couple weeks. 70 degree weather sucks in Winter.

If the 12Z GEFS Ensemble is correct, colder air returns the first week of January. As we know, the longer range is often very inaccurate, but there are some indications the Teleconnection Indices may be trending to a pattern conducive of reloading our source Regions with the bitterly cold air currently situated across Siberia where actual temperatures are -60F today. We will see.

srainhoutx wrote:If the 12Z GEFS Ensemble is correct, colder air returns the first week of January. As we know, the longer range is often very inaccurate, but there are some indications the Teleconnection Indices may be trending to a pattern conducive of reloading our source Regions with the bitterly cold air currently situated across Siberia where actual temperatures are -60F today. We will see.

The 4-5 sd +NAO really relaxes to near normal in the long range too, which will erode that SE ridge. Couple that with our Aleutian ridge and a slightly negative PNA and we are in bidness!

srainhoutx wrote:If the 12Z GEFS Ensemble is correct, colder air returns the first week of January. As we know, the longer range is often very inaccurate, but there are some indications the Teleconnection Indices may be trending to a pattern conducive of reloading our source Regions with the bitterly cold air currently situated across Siberia where actual temperatures are -60F today. We will see.

Hard to keep that kind of stuff bottled up. We'll see paroxysmal forays into Canada and down the easter slopes of the Rockies a few more times this winter. Guessing when is just that - good educated guesses...but fun to think about nonetheless.

BlueJay wrote:I'm not looking forward to such a scenario...

Agreed! Covering our citrus is getting to be quite the project when this kind of weather approaches. Usually, we're covering things in 30-MPH winds!!

Looking ahead into early January, there are indications that a Blocking Regime develops both in the NE Pacific and the NW Atlantic setting the stage for another potential Arctic Intrusion into our source Regions.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 35m35 minutes ago
We're looking at a major arctic air mass intrusion (cold snap) across western Canada in through the western half of the US during early Jan

FWIW....12z GFS has some wintry precip around HGX on new years day

The overnight ensemble guidance continues to advertise a Major Hemispheric Pattern change begins as we start the New Year. A particularly strong +NAO combined with a tanking -EPO regime suggests that Central North America could develop a very deep cold longwave trough with the coldest air across the Northern Hemisphere firmly anchored on our side of the Globe.

srainhoutx wrote:The overnight ensemble guidance continues to advertise a Major Hemispheric Pattern change begins as we start the New Year. A particularly strong +NAO combined with a tanking -EPO regime suggests that Central North America could develop a very deep cold longwave trough with the coldest air across the Northern Hemisphere firmly anchored on our side of the Globe.

Similar setup to December 1924, December 1983, and February 1989. Not saying it will be like those freezes.

There were ice storms in December 1924 and February 1989.

Southeast Texas has Rough Winters too!
http://www.sfasu.edu/heritagecenter/6986.asp

GFS drops the cold bomb on the CONUS hour 240 onward.

-60s in Montana and Houston below freezing for a few days

Meteogram for IAH via the 00Z GFS suggests freezing rain to light snow...but is only 2 weeks away...

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 6m6 minutes ago
Coast to coast cold weather is predicted in the latest ECMWF EPS during the second week of January

The afternoon Updated Day 11+ Analogs and Day 8 to 14 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook suggest a more Winter like Pattern returns.

Interesting winter so far. Similar to last winter and the one before. Few cold shots followed by weeks of unseasonably warm weather. Now, the winter of 2013-2014 was cold in my books.

The overnight trends via the Teleconnection Indices as well as the Operational and Ensemble schemes around Day 10 and beyond suggest Winter returns to our part of the World. Enjoy this late December warmth while we have it. It appears changes are on the horizon.

srainhoutx wrote:The overnight trends via the Teleconnection Indices as well as the Operational and Ensemble schemes around Day 10 and beyond suggest Winter returns to our part of the World. Enjoy this late December warmth while we have it. It appears changes are on the horizon.

Would like to see the PNA a little closer to neutral, but that's a nice TC chart.

Man, that AO gets shredded. From +5sds to in the tank!

The afternoon ECMWF EPS suggests a strong Arctic Block Lock develops around Day 10 with a very chilly regime across most of North America.

GEFS Ensemble sniffing out something similar. We're overdue for the next shot of cold air!





2014-2014 featured prolonged cold later in winter - nothing really frigid, but about 15 light freezes in CLL.