February 2017- Spring Like Weather Returns

[houstonia]

Heavy rain falling now in far southwest Houston. It's also cold. Not a bit of wind, but continual lightning. Not much thunder either.
On edit - it is as dark as night here right now and pretty scary.

[tireman4]

It is really moving fast. Outer edges approaching 45 and 610 (South) now.

[tireman4]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
845 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2017
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 915 AM CST.
* AT 844 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRAZORIA, OR
NEAR SWEENY, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE JACKSON, ANGLETON, FREEPORT, CLUTE, HITCHCOCK, SWEENY,
SURFSIDE BEACH, RICHWOOD, BRAZORIA, JONES CREEK, OYSTER CREEK,
SOUTHEASTERN BAILEY'S PRAIRIE, SARGENT, SOUTHERN WILD PEACH VILLAGE
AND SAN LUIS PASS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.
INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY, IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING. THIS STORM MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT
PROPERTY DAMAGE.
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[houstonia]

Those areas of rotation being shown on KHOU right now - we are basically between them. Lots of roaring winds. One sent me running to the living room to check on the 'rents. It seems to have moved over us now. We are near gessner and bellaire.

[tireman4]

Intense rain coming down, in sheets in the Gulfgate area. Very windy.

[tireman4]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
913 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2017
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 945 AM CST.
* AT 913 AM CST, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BRAZOS BEND STATE PARK TO BAILEY'S PRAIRIE,
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS WARNING REPLACES THE TORNADO
WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTERN PEARLAND, ANGLETON, WESTERN MANVEL, FRESNO, DANBURY,
ARCOLA, IOWA COLONY, HOLIDAY LAKES, BAILEY'S PRAIRIE, LIVERPOOL,
BONNEY, SIENNA PLANTATION, SOUTH ACRES / CRESTMONT PARK,
SOUTHEASTERN CENTRAL SOUTHWEST, CHOCOLATE BAYOU, ROSHARON AND
JULIFF.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

[txflagwaver]

Wind and heavy rain some lightning and thunder Clear lake City Blvd @ Hwy 3

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Damaging supercell producing tornadoes extends from US 90 south to near Pasadena. Tornado Warning in effect for E/SE Harris County until 1000am. Strongest core of this cell will pass between I-10 and HWY 90 and may produce a tornado at any time.

Numerous reports of damage across Fort Bend County. City of Stafford is currently reporting several homes and office buildings damaged along Murphy Rd and Greenbriar Rd. FBCSO has numerous reports of damage from US 59 along Crabb River Rd to George Ranch HS (mainly fences and tree limbs down).

This continues to be a dangerous tornado situation along and E of I-45.

[CrashTestDummy]

The rain was pretty heavy about a half hour ago, but very little wind. I guess the big storms parted their ways before getting to us this morning.

Now, the wind is out of the north and it's 59 deg F in northern Brazoria County.

[davidiowx]

Appears there was a possible Tornado is Stafford. I work right next to Pentair and there is a lot of debris everywhere. The fence at my building was blown down too.


https://twitter.com/search?q=tornado+st ... r%5Esearch

[DoctorMu]

The model Fox 26 just put up shows a broken line of weak storms rolling through around noon. The south side of Houston barely had anything while forecasts had been pegging that to be the hot spot.

They really blew that...but it's Fox so...

[DoctorMu]

I've been following you all - hope everyone is OK. I was afraid ya'll would see the juice behind the line of storms - southern Gulf moisture and instability turbocharged the mesos.

Just intense rain up here in CLL. Wind and cold overperformed.

[869MB]

If you ask the GFS, next week's Presidents Day storm system will bring similar impacts to Southeast Texas as the Valentines Day's storms. This could be the system to watch. We shall see.

[davidiowx]

Here is a video of some of the damage in Stafford from the possible Tornado:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kSsha2 ... outu.be&a=

[TexasBreeze]

The enhanced risk certainly panned out, but could have been even worse if the line came in during the afternoon instead of morning.
The Monday system looks like another wet one for The eastern half of TX with GFS modelling high amounts around Houston.

[DoctorMu]

Videos of damage from an EF-1 tornado in Van Vleck in Matagorda, Co. This was near the intersection of peak CAPE and Shear levels from last night. Substantial home damage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiaeCGfzdSM

http://abc13.com/weather/nws-ef1-tornad ... k/1753898/

[Katdaddy]

Nice cool weather today and Thursday with clearing skies. Some showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Friday before more partly cloudy skies arrive with highs in the low 80s for the weekend. Our next storm system next week looks to be very wet.

[srainhoutx]

We will need to monitor the forecast trends as we head into the weekend for the potential of an impressive heavy rainfall event likely beginning late on Sunday and continuing through at least next Tuesday. The third in a series of potent 500mb Upper Lows will exit Northern Mexico heading generally East with a growing potential of a slow moving Coastal wave/low organizing along the Lower Texas Coast next Monday and slowly moving up the Coast next Tuesday. The ensemble guidance is in rather good agreement for this potential and the latest 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast suggest heavy training rainfall may be capable of dropping 5 to 7 inches of rain with higher isolated total where the strong storms train. Note the heavy rainfall across California. The series of storm systems will likely lead to increased flooding threats along the West Coast putting stress on the Highland Lakes like Lake Oroville.

[DoctorMu]

Nice cool weather today and Thursday with clearing skies. Some showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Friday before more partly cloudy skies arrive with highs in the low 80s for the weekend. Our next storm system next week looks to be very wet.

At least there's no shear. Don't mind a soaking.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

It is early…but signs are ominous for early next week.

Powerful upper level storm system moving into the west coast this weekend will arrive into TX late this weekend/early next week. This will potentially bring a high impact weather event to TX.

Moisture return off a very warm Gulf of Mexico (a result of this very mild winter) will begin in earnest Saturday into Sunday. Models are showing “off the charts” moisture levels in place by late Sunday with very impressive PW values of 1.8-2.0 inches or some 275% of normal over SE TX and nearly 400% of normal over N TX. To give an idea of how rare this would be…such moisture values are more common in the June-October time period…and if this actually materializes would potentially be record values for this time of year. The upper level system digs deep into MX and then progresses across TX bringing strong jet stream dynamics across this moisture plume. Lift and instability looks good and there could be the potential for sustained convective training with near summertime rainfall rates. WPC day 6/7 QPF is on the extreme side for such a long term forecast and hits a corridor from Galveston Island southward with 7-9 inches and widespread 5-7 inches over much of SE TX.

This system would also likely have a severe weather threat.

It is way too early to have much confidence in the rainfall totals or placement as well as the severe threat, but this system deserves close attention over the next several days.