June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

[TexasBreeze]

6z GFS paints 6-10 inches of rain over the northern half of SE TX from ptc3.

[ticka1]

I see a nice tropical wave in the GOM - not sure if I like this new system - lots of folks think it is hurricane but it's not even Tropical depression. Like I said before I think all the rain will be east of us and se Texas get very little. Look outside this morning - not a cloud in the sky.

[snowman65]

Keeping a close eye on things here in Orange....

[mcheer23]

Expecting a few more west shifts.

[mcheer23]

I see a nice tropical wave in the GOM - not sure if I like this new system - lots of folks think it is hurricane but it's not even Tropical depression. Like I said before I think all the rain will be east of us and se Texas get very little. Look outside this morning - not a cloud in the sky.

I dont know what makes you think that .. I think 4+ is a good bet east of 45
2+ west of 45

We're in the "slight" zone for day 3 excessive rainfall

[srainhoutx]

The reason for the drier air over us this morning is a very weak and defused frontal boundary dropped in, but is already washing out. Remember when a tropical system is to our SE in the Central Gulf, NE flow is expected with the cyclonic circulation associated with the broad surface low. First visible satellite imagery suggests the system continues to organize and a circulation center has consolidated S of Morgan City about 380 miles offshore of the Louisiana Coast. Movement is to the NW around 8 MPH, but the "center" remains exposed due to SW wind shear. That said it is likely we will have TS Cindy before the day is done. We should get some spectacular images from GOES 16 today and tomorrow!

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-0

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors and members in the NWS Lake Charles Area:

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE LOCAL STATEMENT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA AL032017
710 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

THIS PRODUCT COVERS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS

**DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST CAMERON

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON, AND WEST
CAMERON
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CAMERON, IBERIA,
LOWER ST. MARTIN, ST. MARY, AND VERMILION

* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LA OR ABOUT 290
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LA
- 25.4N 90.3W
- STORM INTENSITY 40 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

AS OF 7 AM CDT, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. RAINBANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. A THREAT
FOR ONE OR TWO TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THESE RAINBANDS. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST LATE
TONIGHT, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF
CAMERON. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COASTAL AREAS TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION COULD POSSIBLY SEE 1 TO 3 FEET OF INUNDATION.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT A FEW EVACUATIONS.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY RISE WITH SWIFTER CURRENTS.
SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME SWOLLEN
AND OVERFLOW IN SPOTS.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER A FEW STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY
VULNERABLE SPOTS. A FEW PLACES WHERE RAPID PONDING OF WATER
OCCURS AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SEVERAL STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS BECOME
NEAR-FULL AND BEGIN TO OVERFLOW. SOME BRIEF ROAD AND BRIDGE
CLOSURES.

* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, SHEDS, AND UNANCHORED
MOBILE HOMES. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
- MANY LARGE TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF. A FEW TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE
SHALLOW ROOTED. SOME FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- A FEW ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM DEBRIS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON
BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.

* TORNADOES:
PROTECT AGAINST A TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- A FEW PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE, ALONG WITH POWER
AND COMMUNICATIONS DISRUPTIONS.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS PEELED OFF BUILDINGS, CHIMNEYS
TOPPLED, MOBILE HOMES PUSHED OFF FOUNDATIONS OR OVERTURNED,
LARGE TREE TOPS AND BRANCHES SNAPPED OFF, SHALLOW-ROOTED TREES
KNOCKED OVER, MOVING VEHICLES BLOWN OFF ROADS, AND SMALL BOATS
PULLED FROM MOORINGS.

* SURGE:
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO BRING TO COMPLETION ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN.

KEEP CELL PHONES WELL CHARGED AND HANDY. ALSO, CELL PHONE CHARGERS
FOR AUTOMOBILES CAN BE HELPFUL AFTER THE STORM. LOCATE YOUR CHARGERS
AND KEEP THEM WITH YOUR CELL PHONE.

IF YOU ARE A VISITOR AND STILL IN THE AREA, LISTEN FOR THE NAME OF
THE CITY OR TOWN IN WHICH YOU ARE STAYING WITHIN LOCAL NEWS UPDATES.
BE SURE YOU KNOW THE NAME OF THE COUNTY OR PARISH IN WHICH IT
RESIDES. PAY ATTENTION FOR INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BE READY TO ADAPT TO POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES LA AROUND 11 AM CDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201031
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
531 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
As we head into the Summer Solstice late tonight...all eyes are
on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (PTC3). This broad low over
the central Gulf is slowly advancing north along the far eastern
periphery of a Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Today`s forecast
movement of the low has it traveling west of north...or towards
the Texas-Louisiana line (Sabine River Valley). This morning`s NHC
advisory update has this (sub)tropical system strengthening to
Tropical Storm Cindy latter today with a landfall somewhere
between Galveston Bay and the central Louisiana coastline Thursday
morning. Sustained Tropical Storm winds will graze our eastern-
most Gulf waters. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for our
eastern waters from tomorrow morning through Thursday morning.

Another partially cloudy...hot and fairly humid day today as
afternoon temperatures eclipse the 90 F mark by 11 AM...topping
out in the interior middle 90s to coastal lower 90s by 4 PM.
Although difficult to discern within the surface analysis...there
is a diffuse surface boundary draped somewhere over the southern
half of the CWA...with PTC3/TS Cindy pulling this boundary further
south. Regional northeasterlies will begin to strengthen through
the day...more pronounced over the open waters to Small Craft
Advisories by late this afternoon for all Gulf waters (except for
the nearshore western waters and Matagorda Bay). Chances for Gulf
showers and thunderstorms will begin increasing over the next 24
to 36 hours to likely by tomorrow morning as PTC3/TS Cindy`s
northwestern convective bands begin to creep into our marine
zones. Wednesday into Thursday is when this (sub)tropical system
moves onshore somewhere over the upper Texas to southwestern
Louisiana coastline. The main threats appear to be mainly focused
on the marine with elevated water levels and tropical storm level
winds. The main eastern-southeastern county threat will be
locally heavy rainfall leading to flooding as bands of storms
rotate inland along the northwestern sector of PTC3/TS Cindy.
Skies will become mainly overcast tomorrow...with moderate
northeast winds...morning lower 80s with afternoon middle 90s over
the NW`ern CWA to around 90 F over the southeastern third of the
CWA (counties surrounding Galveston Bay) per the overcast and
periodic precipitation. More frequent rounds of precipitation
Wednesday evening through Thursday morning as PTC3/TS Cindy makes
landfall over the upper Texas/southwestern Louisiana coastline.
Needless to say...but an overcast and more wet end to the work
week.

The remnants of PTC3/Cindy will move north into eastern-northeastern
Texas through Thursday afternoon and be entering the ArkLaTex region
that evening. Eastern CWA POPS will remain at least high chance
through Thursday night...tapering off to low to moderate chances
for showers and storms early Friday. Storm total QPF for the eastern
half of the forecast area (through early Saturday) will average
between 2 to 4 inches...with locally 6 to 8 inches not completely
out of the question if the storm jogs more west than north.

Weekend weather has weak ridging attempting to make a comeback
with winds returning to onshore...mostly cloudy and humid with
average minTs in the upper 70s / average maxTs in the lower 90s.
Precipitation chances remain high...especially close to the
coast...as this is where the height weakness channel will lie
with a series of shortwave disturbances moving parallel to the
Gulf coast. Extremely high pwat air mass above 2 inches with weak
cyclonic-turning mid levels and unstable profiles all point to an
unsettled first weekend of the summer season.

A weak boundary moving into the area early next week will keep an
unsettled picture in place through the end of the period. Slightly
cooler middle levels...overcast with occasional rain/thunderstorm
occurrences will regulate early work week warmth to closer to 90
F than 95 F / overnight middle 70s. Precipitation chances remain
in the moderate chance category through mid week...with higher
probabilities focused across the southern third of the area where
the higher moisture/theta e axis is modeled to reside. 31

&&

.MARINE...
Pres gradient will tighten today and tonight and winds and seas will
increase to Small Craft Advsy criteria. Obviously, the fcst for the
next couple days is highly dependent on the evolution/track of the
disturbance in the Gulf. NHC adjusted their track westward, which
would bring some TS force gusts in the extreme se parts of the 20-
60nm offshore waters south of GLS as early as ~4am tonight. Went
ahead and hoisted a TS Watch there which, dependent on later
data/trends, may or may not need to be expanded north with time.

Tides: Currently running ~0.7 ft above normal in the Galveston Bay
area. They too will be highly dependent on the track of the
disturbance and if we remain on the west side (offshore flow) or
east side (onshore flow). If on the west side, we`ll probably see
a slight bump (possibly to total observed slightly above 3 ft mllw
at the beaches at high tide Wed) followed by levels falling to
1-2 ft below normal as it gets blown out Wed night and Thurs.
However, if we somehow get on the east side, coastal flooding
would be a decent bet especially at times of high tide. Low
confidence at this point unfortunately, esp east of Freeport. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
Patch 4-6sm fog across northern parts of se Tx will burn off shortly
after sunrise. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions expected today and
tonight. May see some iso shra/tstms near the coast 21-02Z, but
minimal impacts expected. Main aviation issue in the next 24-36
hours will be increasing nne winds, esp near the coast, as the
pressure gradient tightens. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 76 94 75 92 / 10 10 10 40 50
Houston (IAH) 94 77 92 76 87 / 10 10 40 70 50
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 86 80 87 / 20 20 70 80 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT
Wednesday for the following zones: Waters from High Island
to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones: Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
Wednesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 9 AM this morning to 4
PM CDT this afternoon for the following zones: Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[jasons2k]

If the center gets tugged under the convection it's gonna be a shift to the east. Will have to watch satellite very closely today.

[srainhoutx]

If the center gets tugged under the convection it's gonna be a shift to the east. Will have to watch satellite very closely today.

While it is possible, these sheared broad monsoonal gyres with an elongated broad surface circulation are typically influenced by the low level flow versus a vertically stacked Tropical Cyclone. The Bermuda Ridge is influencing the generally Easterly flow at the surface. It appears to me in the 24 frame visible GOES 16 imagery the general motion is to the NW and possibly WNW of the elongated low. Shear would probably need to collapse for this mess to organize under the deeper convection to the N and E.

[DoctorMu]

If the center gets tugged under the convection it's gonna be a shift to the east. Will have to watch satellite very closely today.

While it is possible, these sheared broad monsoonal gyres with an elongated broad surface circulation are typically influenced by the low level flow versus a vertically stacked Tropical Cyclone. The Bermuda Ridge is influencing the generally Easterly flow at the surface. It appears to me in the 24 frame visible GOES 16 imagery the general motion is to the NW and possibly WNW of the elongated low. Shear would probably need to collapse for this mess to organize under the deeper convection to the N and E.

Yes - the trough is gone and now the mid to upper level stack is SW of the surface circulation...so if anything, if the storm gets its act together it would move even farther west. I actually expect the center to move W for awhile today, even WSW. We'll see.

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Storm Watch extended West to San Luis Pass in Galveston County. Brazoria County not included... as of now.

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ISSUED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST REMAINS THE BIGGEST
THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to High
Island, Texas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from west of High Island to San
Luis Pass, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 25.9 North, longitude 90.5 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday night. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast early Thursday. On the forecast track,
the disturbance is expected to be near the southwest Louisiana coast
late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move inland over western
Louisiana and eastern Texas on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the
coast.

Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is
gradually become better defined, and it is likely that the system
will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km),
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 999 mb
(29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later today and spread westward
within the warning area through Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest
Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level
is possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm
Warning area.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[DoctorMu]

The shear is there, but is lifting NE into Louisiana. The one thing Euro, CMC, and GFS have in common is a SNS track to almost west for nearly a day...it may get underneath the shear and get better organized in the next 36 hours.

[jasons2k]

Yes, I had a momentary lapse when I looked at the first visibles. Forgot to step back and look at the big picture. It's doing what it's supposed to...carry on

[tireman4]

The Euro was onto something..like the NAM, UKMET and CMC?

[srainhoutx]

Full Package Discussion:

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of the low has become better organized since yesterday,
but still lacks a well-defined center. The central pressure appears
to have fallen to around 999 mb based on observations from NOAA buoy
42001, and some deep convection has begun developing a little closer
to the low's circulation center. For now the system is being
maintained as a potential tropical cyclone, however, the system
could be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone later
today.

The current intensity is maintained at 35 kt based largely on
continuity pending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission
into the system later this morning. Only limited strengthening is
forecast before the system moves inland due to the strong vertical
shear over the cyclone caused by an upper-level low centered off
the Texas coast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and is close to the intensity consensus aid.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/09 as the
there are still multiple low-level cloud swirls circulating around a
mean center, and some erratic motion is still possible until a
better-defined center forms. However, the system should be steered
generally northwestward over the next 36 hours or so as it interacts
with the aforementioned upper-level low and then turns more
north-northwestward by 48 hours as the system begins to recurve
around the mid-level ridge to the east. The NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the previous one in the short range, and shows
the system moving inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas by
48 hours. After that time, the system should recurve into the
mid-latitude flow and accelerate northward and northeastward across
the lower Mississippi Valley and into the southern and central
Appalachians on days 3 and 4 before dissipating.

The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain
hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 25.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 21/0000Z 26.7N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/1200Z 27.4N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 28.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1200Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1200Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff...he is busy in meetings as you can expect...

At 1000am a tropical storm Watch is issued for the upper TX coast from High Island, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Galveston Bay/County, Harris County, Liberty County and Chambers County.

At 1000am a tropical storm warning is extended westward from Intracoastal City, LA to High Island TX.

There has been no significant change in the forecast track reasoning nor impacts for SE TX at this time.

[davidiowx]

Looking at WV, it looks like that ULL is really trying to get out of the way towards the SW rather quickly.

[jasons2k]

Just my $.02 cents. I think this pre-TC system is just causing confusion. Just call it TD3 and carry on already.

[srainhoutx]

Just my $.02 cents. I think this pre-TC system is just causing confusion. Just call it TD3 and carry on already.

Two years ago at Conference, Doc Neil and I questioned the reasoning for the changes coming. This year we just shook our heads sitting at our table in the back of Conference Room knowing that this would cause confusion. It's up to we weather savoy folks to "educate" those not so weather savoy of these new Products. While the idea of Watches/Warnings have long been discussed prior to an actual storm forming...think Humberto 2007...fortunately this is a "test year" before implementation next Season. Share your views with the NHC. They need to hear exactly why you think this is confusing...