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GFS ain't budging, still showing the Sabine River track with 999mb at landfall. Completely drenches the Louisiana coast.

Tropics Watch just posted this video:
https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status ... 5082658817

Most of the area gets 2 + inches of rain from the 12z GFS run.

When is recon flying

They should just get past the bureaucratic barriers, stick with the existing classification system and issue advisories with Invests. Simple.

ticka1 wrote:When is recon flying

They are in there now. They have been for, I think, a couple of hours.

Now it's official.

https://youtu.be/Fq9a47CpFz0

Is it a TD yet?

Well, it has not been declared one....not sure what the pro mets are thinking...the winds would dictate such, I will say that. This is just an amateur speaking. There is more criteria than just winds....

I realize looks can be deceiving when viewing satellite loops on these kinds of systems, but after reviewing the 48-image GOES 16 visible satellite of the Gulf ... it doesn't look like this thing is moving right now. At all.

Portastorm wrote:I realize looks can be deceiving when viewing satellite loops on these kinds of systems, but after reviewing the 48-image GOES 16 visible satellite of the Gulf ... it doesn't look like this thing is moving right now. At all.

Agreed Porta. I think it is stationary.

tireman4 wrote:

Portastorm wrote:I realize looks can be deceiving when viewing satellite loops on these kinds of systems, but after reviewing the 48-image GOES 16 visible satellite of the Gulf ... it doesn't look like this thing is moving right now. At all.

Agreed Porta. I think it is stationary.

That's what scares me the most - these storms with copious amounts of rain with no wind behind it ala Allison....

We have Cindy:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...2

We were right Porta, she is stationary.

So, here is a question for the pro mets (Srain, Brooks, Andrew, Wxman 57, David), being stationary....

1. You expected this and then it would traverse NW, W and then NE
2. Surprise
3. Not sure what to think

NHC really expanded the wind field on the latest advisory. Interesting, as it doesn't look like it has wrapped up all that much yet.

Here is the estimated arrival time of Cindy

Inspecting Water Vapor Imagery, we can see the Upper Low along the Texas Coast moving slowly out and the clouds over Louisiana associated with Cindy's Outflow expanding West toward E/SE Texas. If we look to West Texas, we can see the Eastern periphery of the SW Heat Ridge slowly edging back to the West toward Arizona. This stall may be related to that Upper Low and I suspect a NW or WNW motion will resume later today into tonight. If you recall the ECMWF suggested the Upper Low would move out of the way and a Westward motion could occur along the Central/SW Louisiana Coast prior to turning North along the Middle/Upper Texas Coast and moving inland. We have great satellite tools that assist in visually seeing what is happening.

EURO just in. Galveston. 992mb

NVM - you can delete this post