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Latest advisory and track. Shifted east some.


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...CINDY STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 91.0W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to the
Alabama-Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain and the
New Orleans Metropolitan area.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Alabama-Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 91.0 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and then toward the north is expected Wednesday
night and early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy
will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas
late Wednesday and Wednesday night, and move inland over
southeastern Texas on Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
nearby ships indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is expected on Wednesday. Slight weakening is forecast to begin on
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
mainly north through northeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6
inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into
southeast Texas through Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area overnight and spread westward
within the warning area through early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, with isolated areas possibly up to 4 feet.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Wednesday
from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

tx/la boundary - did they move it any?

ticka1 wrote:tx/la boundary - did they move it any?

Yes. It was a tad west previously. Now back east over tx/la border.

The dry air just got churned in like water in a gasoline line.




Impressive wind wrapping but there's probably won't be much juice on our side. Should be an interesting overnight.

DoctorMu wrote:The dry air just got churned in like water in a gasoline line.




Impressive wind wrapping but there's probably won't be much juice on our side. Should be an interesting overnight.

That's almost like a linebacker stuffing a running back at the goal line right there.

Too early to tell where Cindy goes at this time.

Ptarmigan wrote:Too early to tell where Cindy goes at this time.

24 hours out (maybe) is too early to tell?

Cromagnum wrote:

Ptarmigan wrote:Too early to tell where Cindy goes at this time.

24 hours out (maybe) is too early to tell?

We're 36-48 hrs away from landfall.

It got bumped back that much? Thought we were talking Wednesday night.

I find it interesting that the NHC seems to have given relatively little credence to the Euro through this event. The Euro has called for a Texas landfall for quite a while now while the GFS has swung from Florida all the way back to Texas. Will be curious to see if the 00z Euro holds to a Galveston landfall or pushes further up the coast closer to the NHC track.

Cromagnum wrote:It got bumped back that much? Thought we were talking Wednesday night.

Should be approaching the upper Texas coast/ sw Louisiana late tomorrow/evening, and then making landfall sometime Thursday morning and possibly into the day/evening Thursday if there were any more erratic movements.

As on now it's still 300 miles or so se from Galveston with a movement nw @ 7.

Just a sober reminder that nothing is written in stone with the tropics: one model gives Houston 0.1" while others 6"-8"+. This model depicted (NAM) isn't always dependable -- actually is rarely great -- but it can indicate trends. We may get hit with some real soakers, or we dodge a bullet and post snarky meme's with a small puddle saying, "I survived Cindy". Not fun when you're <36hrs out. Stay weather aware.

Tropical Storm Debbie proved hard to predict in 2012....right at 5 years ago.

Based on recent mid and low level WV, this storm is eating a lot of dry air. It is going to be difficult to get convection to really form too far west. If we don't see convection form by the morning/midday precipitation totals will need to be lowered.

Scott747 wrote:

Cromagnum wrote:It got bumped back that much? Thought we were talking Wednesday night.

Should be approaching the upper Texas coast/ sw Louisiana late tomorrow/evening, and then making landfall sometime Thursday morning and possibly into the day/evening Thursday if there were any more erratic movements.

As on now it's still 300 miles or so se from Galveston with a movement nw @ 7.

The center of circulation seems to be moving now WNW, literally streaking naked across the GOM.

I'm parched:

The Euro switched to the east with a landfall around the Sabine, it still produces very heavy rain across the area wrapping around the backside of the low.

Looking at recent satellite imagery indicates that the center of the system has sped up a little bit on a WNW track currently. It will be key to see if it will continue to rotate around multiple vorticity centers or remains dominate. If it stays dominate, we look to be about 3-6 hours ahead of schedule.

Modeling hinted at another round of this jerky like movement. Still looks on track as it sorta compensates for the eastern movement yesterday. Though it almost looks like it's moving more w and trying to finally build some canopy on the western flank.

Hey guys, just lurking tonight, but had a question. Since most everybody has agreed that this is mainly a rain event, our real threat is not necessarily where the storm comes in, but how far west it carries that ploom of moisture and how quickly it gets pushed north, right?