June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

[TexasBreeze]

Better than my .08 nearby Hooks Arpt!

[Katdaddy]

I too give a huge thank you to all of members both old and new. This is a solid Weather Community who focuses on factual and reliable weather info as Srainhoutx stated. Its an honor to be part this weather family and its about teamwork keeping the weather information flowing. TS Cindy was a great wake-up call/drill for the Houston-Galveston areas with previous seasons being quiet. The next tropical threat may be significant and if that occurs we will all do our best to keep everyone informed.

[Texaspirate11]

I too give a huge thank you to all of members both old and new. This is a solid Weather Community who focuses on factual and reliable weather info as Srainhoutx stated. Its an honor to be part this weather family and its about teamwork keeping the weather information flowing. TS Cindy was a great wake-up call/drill for the Houston-Galveston areas with previous seasons being quiet. The next tropical threat may be significant and if that occurs we will all do our best to keep everyone informed.

Ditto ^^^^

Does anyone see a wave at 42W- is that the ghost of Ex-Bret???

[Katdaddy]

A very warm and muggy morning across SE TX with only a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm today. This weekend is looking quiet wet across SE TX thanks to abundant moisture, a slow moving cool front, and the sea breeze. Locally heavy rains will be possible both Saturday and Sunday.

[srainhoutx]

Hot and steamy weather today with a Heat Advisory issued mainly for our Western Counties into Central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Stay hydrated and cool off as much as possible today.

Looking ahead to the weekend, a weak frontal boundary sags SW as a backdoor front combined with very high PW's near 2.3 which is very tropical and cooling at the 850mb level as the front approaches and a weakness between a Ridge to our East and West suggest very slow moving thunderstorm may be possible. Deep tropical moisture across portion of the Gulf and the advancing tropical moisture in the NW Caribbean associated with the remnants of Bret combine to further increase our juice for night time showers and storms over the offshore waters and daytime slow moving thunderstorms inland.



Mesoscale features that cannot be accurately predicted beyond 3-5 hour in advance may likely drive exactly when and which neighbor hoods see the heaviest rainfall. This front may stall somewhere across our Region that further complicated the sensible weather forecast and sea/bay breeze interact with the boundary to our N and any potential outflow boundaries that may lead to these boundary collisions. The WPC has issued a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for tomorrow across portion of our Region.

The 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast the unsettled pattern may ling into next week.

In the Tropics that old monsoonal trough continues to fester across portions of Central America and Southern Mexico and near the Gulf of Tehuatepec. 93E has been designated by the NHC and has a High Chance (70%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone over the next 5 Days. Some mid/Upper level moisture from the tropical disturbance could spread across Mexico toward the Gulf to further complicate an already interesting forecast scenario.

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
456 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...Heat Advisory in Effect...

.Warm temperature and high humidity will combine to produce some
107-109 degree heat indices today...generally along and west of a
College Station to Edna line.

Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Jackson-Washington-Wharton-
Including the cities of Bellville, Brenham, Bryan, Caldwell,
College Station, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Edna, El Campo,
Lake Somerville, Pierce, Sealy, Weimar, and Wharton
456 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Heat Advisory, which is in effect from noon today to 6 PM CDT
this evening.

* EVENT...Heat index near or above 108.

* TIMING...This afternoon.

* IMPACT...Prolonged exposure could lead to heat exhaustion,
illness or stroke if adequate precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 911.

Each year...a number of fatalities occur nationwide due to
children accidentally being left in vehicles during the summer
months. In the past dozen years...500 children have died due to
hyperthermia after being left in or gaining access to cars. Never
leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle not even for a
minute. Remember...beat the heat...check the backseat.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall possible Sat-Mon

TS Cindy has weakened into a tropical depression over the mid MS Valley this morning however a moist southerly feed on the southern side of the circulation continues to bring deep tropical moisture into the region. Morning dewpoints in the staggering low 80’s have been common along the coastal areas of SW LA and extreme SE TX. Not expecting much of this moisture to mix out today and as surface temperatures rise into the lower 90’s heat index values will increase into the mid 100’s. A heat advisory has been issued for our western counties until this evening.

This weekend a weak cold front will approach and stall across the area interacting with the deep moisture in place. PWS will remain in the 2.0-2.3 inches range as moisture from Cindy and arriving moisture from ex tropical storm Bret pushes into the western Gulf of Mexico. Overall storm motions look slow at less than 10kts and will likely be strongly tied to outflow boundary collisions. Potential for decent development of storms north of the region around midday Saturday along the sagging frontal boundary and then along the northward moving seabreeze. Potential is for these tow boundaries our their thunderstorms to collide at some point between US 59 and HWY 105 Saturday afternoon or evening.

Moisture remains very high into Sunday and Monday and expect additional daily rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Frontal system will gradually dissipate with the focus being along the inland moving seabreeze each afternoon. Mid level heights do not begin to rise until about Tuesday and that should begin to reduce rain chances.

Pattern ahead will be highly convective with potential for isolated locations to receive several inches of rainfall in a short period of time and nearby locations get nothing. Deep saturated column and high moisture levels will support very high short term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches in an hour. Street flooding will be the main concern with this type of rainfall rate.

[BlueJay]

Quiet as crickets. Let's hope the tropics get the hint.
Happy Friday everyone!

[djjordan]

Hot is an understatement today ..... Kingsville had a heat index reach 121 earlier .... sitting at 116 right now as they are under an excessive heat warning. One of those days to stay indoors or at the pool for sure. Stay hydrated. Mother nature has her own version of hydration for us this weekend.

[Portastorm]

Very dangerous heat indices here at 4 pm in South Central Texas ranging between 110-114 right now. Sure hoping the latest short range models are correct and that rain is coming tomorrow.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I hate Summer

[DoctorMu]

Quiet as crickets. Let's hope the tropics get the hint.
Happy Friday everyone!

It won't be difficult, but we're due for a lot more rain out of Bret's corpse than crazy Cindy.

[DoctorMu]

I hate Summer

Fortunately, some relief this weekend!

[DoctorMu]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
342 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A hot afternoon is well underway for Southeast Texas with 3 PM CDT
temperatures in the low to mid 90s inland and heat index values
ranging from 98 to 107. Visible satellite imagery shows a
scattered to broken stratocumulus deck developing around 4500 feet
and spreading south within an area of isentropic lift on the 310 K
surface. RAP guidance shows this area of lift gradually
translating east over the next few hours (likely as the remnants
of Cindy pull farther away from the region), allowing at least
some of these clouds to translate towards the south and east with
it. For those areas lucky to get some shade from these clouds,
temperatures may quickly drop 2-3 degrees and provide some relief
from the heat. Otherwise, cannot rule out a stray shower along the
coast or across the far extreme eastern counties through the
remainder of the day but this would be the exception and not the
rule.

Not much cooling is expected overnight with lows only falling into
the mid 70s to low 80s, but rain chances will increase across the
region on Saturday and Sunday as Southeast Texas remains situated
in a relative upper level weakness between two ridges. Speed
convergence along the coast Saturday will result in scattered
morning showers, with the northern counties seeing a thunderstorm
complex along an approaching (weak) cold front also during the
morning hours. Regional radar mosaic already shows storms
beginning to develop along this cold front across portions of the
Low Rolling Plains and along the Red River, with additional
upscale growth into a thunderstorm complex expected through the
remainder of the afternoon and evening hours as the front pushes
south towards the region.

The cold front looks to make a run for the Interstate 10 corridor
through the remainder of the morning hours Saturday, stalling
near or north of it as a sea breeze pushes inland during the late
morning and afternoon hours. Daytime heating and the collision of
both of these boundaries is expected to result in the development
of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Saturday,
with greatest coverage centering wherever the boundaries collide
(likely near Interstate 10). Convection should wane with loss of
heating by Saturday evening. Another round of morning showers are
expected on Sunday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms again
developing with daytime heating and likely focusing along
wherever the remnant frontal boundary (or outflow boundaries from
Saturday`s convection) is. The front won`t have much of an effect
on temperatures but increased clouds on Saturday and Sunday will
keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than today with highs in
the mid 80s to low 90s.

Similar to what the previous forecast noted, storm motions will
be very slow both days (around 5 knots Saturday, 10 knots Sunday)
and this, combined with precipitable water values 1.8-2 inches,
will result in the threat for locally heavy rainfall and the
potential for some localized flood issues as thunderstorms have
the potential to remain nearly stationary before collapsing. SREF
plumes show forecast rain totals generally in the 1-2 inch range
during this time, but would not be surprised to see some isolated
2-3 inch totals occur given the aforementioned environmental
conditions. Will also have to keep an eye on a gusty wind threat
as well on Saturday. Relative humidity progs show drier air
evident over the northwest Gulf on afternoon water vapor imagery
working its way into the region from the south/southwest. This
drier air would help enhance evaporational cooling, accelerating
downdrafts and creating the potential for gusty winds in stronger
convection on Saturday.

The region remains under this relative weakness in the upper flow
through the middle of the upcoming week, with mainly daytime
shower and thunderstorm chances inland through mid-week.
Expect these chances to gradually decrease early to mid next week
as 500 MB heights increase and atmospheric moisture content drops
a bit. These increasing mid-level heights and decreasing rain
chances will also result in gradually warming temperatures with
highs increasing to near or slightly above normal (low to mid 90s)
by the end of the next work week.

Huffman

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are slowly diminishing today, and seas should also come
down with them on a bit of a delay. Though winds may not quite be
at the SCEC threshold, the lag in waves should justify keeping it
in place into tonight. Going into the weekend and early next week,
light to moderate flow is expected, generally onshore. An
approaching front may back winds slightly to more easterly from
Sunday, but will still be generally onshore. Some stronger winds
may be possible mid to late week.

Tides also remain elevated, and astronomical high tide at around
two feet at Galveston are not aiding matters. Another chance at
coastal flooding in vulnerable areas around high tide early
tomorrow morning can`t be ruled out. Will hold off on another
Coastal Flood Advisory for now to gauge tidal behavior through low
tide and into the upswing towards high tide.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 90 73 87 71 / 20 40 50 60 30
Houston (IAH) 78 90 75 87 73 / 20 70 40 70 40
Galveston (GLS) 81 88 80 87 78 / 30 40 20 50 50

[TexasBreeze]

What is with all of the smoke in the air today? Visible in satellite in central TX too.

[Andrew]

Looks like rain chances are going to stay around for the remainder of the week. Tomorrow could allow for some isolated severe thunderstorms with hail and wind being the primary threat. Overall though I think chances for rain are a lot better this week for most people, especially in comparison to last week.

[unome]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0390...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

CORRECTED FOR SENTENCE FRAGMENT IN THE SECOND DISCUSSION PARAGRAPH

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST OK & PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 240610Z - 241210Z

summary... elevated convection continues to build and expand in coverage across the tx panhandle and southwest ok. hourly rain rates to 2" and local amounts to 4" are expected.

discussion... showers and thunderstorms have been forming on the northwest side of an instability pool centered south of dallas, well to the north of associated surface boundaries. the convection appears to be tapping instability at the 700 hpa level where the flow is more westerly. mucape values in the area are 1000-2000 j/kg. closer to dallas tx, thunderstorms continue to propagate southwest slowly due to a long-lived outflow boundary/convective arc which was spawned by thunderstorm activity in ia and co 24 hours ago. precipitable water values of 1.5-2" exist here per gps data. effective bulk shear of 25-50 kts is helping to organize thunderstorms. the mean 850-400 hpa winds are fairly light throughout the region, which could magnify rainfall efficiency.

hourly rain rates up to 2" are expected. mass field-wise, a mesoscale wave is expected to drop southwest with time into central tx due to the mobile outflow boundary, which should allow convection from near dallas to follow in suit. the 00z nam conest appears to have the best handle of this activity from a pattern perspective, but the guidance is unified on a signal for ~4" in this area. there is concern, based on the nam conest, that the activity could bridge across to the southwest moving convection moving across the dallas-fort worth area at this time. the expected local totals could challenge the high flash flood guidance values in this area -- the threat appears highest in
urban locations.


ROTH

ATTN...WFO...AMA...EWX...FWD...LUB...OUN...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

[unome]

popping up closer to home, moving north

[srainhoutx]

Active several days ahead. Unusually high 2-3.3 PW's are in place over our Region suggesting very high rainfall rates are very possible wherever these extremely slow moving thunderstorms development. An outflow boundary to or N with a sea/bay breeze boundary advancing inland is setting the stage for a potential heavy rainfall event. Convective temperatures are rather low with the rich/deep tropical airmass over head and across the Gulf.

I see 93E along the Pacific Coast of. Mexico has continued to organize and could become Tropical Storm Dora over the next 24 to 48 hours. Our old friend that pesky Monsoonal Trough continues to be very active as seen via MIMIC Imagery. Mid/upper level moisture is spreading into the Bay of Campeche and a moisture surge associated with Bret remnants/tropical wave axis and a stalling frontal boundary somewhere along and possibly just N along the I-10 Corridor to HWY 105 could focus heavy and possibly training thunderstorm activity. We may see a brief break mid day into the early afternoon before additional showers and thunderstorms redevelop.

As Andrew stated, the chance for daily showers and thunderstorm activity could continue throughout the 7 day period after inspecting the morning 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast.

[srainhoutx]

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
737 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017
Harris TX-
737 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
East central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 930 AM CDT.

* At 735 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms generally centered along the
southern portion of Lake Houston. Rain rates between 2 and 2.5
inches per hour have been observed and the cluster of
precipitation is showing little movement. This will cause minor
flooding in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Humble, Highlands, Barrett, Channelview, Crosby, Lake Houston Dam,
Lake Houston, Atascocita, Sheldon, East Houston, East Little York /
Homestead and southeastern Bush Intercontinental Airport.

[srainhoutx]

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
750 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017

Austin TX-Fort Bend TX-Waller TX-
750 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Southeastern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southern Waller County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 845 AM CDT.

* At 749 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to slow
moving thunderstorms. Radar estimates 1 to 3 inches of rain has
fallen with moderate to heavy rain continuing. This will cause
minor flooding in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northwestern Rosenberg, Katy, Sealy, Brookshire, Wallis, Fulshear,
Simonton, San Felipe, Pattison, Orchard, Weston Lakes and Cinco
Ranch.