Tropical Storm Bret/Nearing Windward Islands

[srainhoutx]

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
become better organized since yesterday. Additional slow
development is possible during the next few days while the wave
moves westward at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula during the
next day or two. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward
into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[unome]

no need to be frustrated if floater satellite pages are not defined yet, a lot of good options, here's just a few:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport/

[srainhoutx]

The National Hurricane Center will initiate Advisories for "Potential Tropical Cyclone 2" for portions of the Caribbean Islands at 5:00 PM AST

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
500 PM AST Sun Jun 18 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.5N 50.4W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
7.5 North, longitude 50.4 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A fast motion toward the west-
northwest is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move through the
Windward Islands Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is expected to reach tropical storm intensity on Monday
before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance
has become better organized since yesterday, and some additional
development is possible during the next couple of days before
conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation
over the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area overnight Monday and Tuesday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands Monday
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[srainhoutx]

Sunday afternoon Update from Jeff regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone #2:

NHC has begun advisories on the strong tropical wave approaching the southern Windward Islands.

Tropical Storm Warnings are issued for the Windward Islands.

As is now new protocol…advisories will be issued and watches/warnings when a potential system is within 48 hours of threatening land areas…which this system is.

Discussion:

Satellite images show that the wave has rapidly become much better organized today with a ball of deep convection developing over a tight sharp trough axis that is nearly closed off. There are some weak hints of banding features. The main question is if the low level circulation is actually closed and while it appears that way on satellite images there is still some question is west winds are present south of the center.

Track:

This system is embedded within the deep layer easterlies south of a large sub-tropical ridge over the central Atlantic and a W to WNW motion will continue for the next several days. On this track the system will approach and cross the southern Windward Islands over the next 48 hours. There is little disagreement in the model track guidance and this is an average to above average confidence track forecast. Tropical storm watches are being required for the Windward Islands…meaning tropical storm conditions of sustained winds of 40mph or greater will be possible within the next 48 hours.

Intensity:

Given the organization today, think gradual development into a tropical storm is likely over the next 24 hours if deep convection can be maintained. Satellite images show upper level SW shear west of the system over the eastern Caribbean Sea and this shear is likely to begin to impact the system as it reaches the Windward Island. Intensity guidance shows the system intensifying into a moderate tropical storm before weakening as it encounters strong shear.

[unome]

storm page
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models. ... 7&storm=02

recon in Cesium, no plugin needed
http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... ing=cesium

[unome]

we have Bret

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Bret