BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017
...CINDY STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 91.0W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to the
Alabama-Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain and the
New Orleans Metropolitan area.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Alabama-Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 91.0 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and then toward the north is expected Wednesday
night and early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy
will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas
late Wednesday and Wednesday night, and move inland over
southeastern Texas on Thursday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
nearby ships indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is expected on Wednesday. Slight weakening is forecast to begin on
Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
mainly north through northeast of the center.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6
inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into
southeast Texas through Thursday.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area overnight and spread westward
within the warning area through early Thursday.
STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, with isolated areas possibly up to 4 feet.
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Wednesday
from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
Tropical Storm Cindy NHC Updates
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and nearby
ship D5DY4 indicate that Cindy has strengthened to 50 kt based on
peak SFMR and flight-level winds of 51 kt and 62 kt, respectively,
and the ship report of winds near 50 kt. The NHC greatly
appreciates the observations reported by ships C6CE8, ABVZ5, D5DY4,
V7MO2, and WHED, which have been navigating through and near the
center of Cindy for the past several hours.
The initial motion estimate is 310/06 kt based on recent
reconnaissance fixes. A northwestward motion is expected for the
next 24 hours, after which Cindy is expected to recurve northward
and then northeastward around the western portion of the strong
subtropical ridge located over the southeastern United States. The
18Z model guidance has shifted slightly to the east, and the new
NHC track has been adjusted a little to the east as well, close to
the consensus track model TVCA. Given the nature of the circulation
and the fact that wind and rain hazards extend well north and east
of the center, users are encouraged not to focus on the details of
the track forecast.
Although Cindy has strengthened this evening, little change in
strength is expected for the next 12 hours or so, followed by
gradual weakening thereafter due to the combination of strong
vertical wind shear and abundance of dry mid-level preventing the
development of significant inner-core convection. The new NHC
intensity follows the trend of the previous advisory and is a
little above the intensity consensus model IVCN.
The 34-kt wind radii were expanded in the northwest and northeast
quadrants based on recon wind data, and observations from coastal
and offshore buoy data. This has required and eastward extension of
the Tropical Storm Warning along the north-central Gulf coast.
The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall
over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more
information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local
National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 26.4N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 27.0N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 28.1N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 29.8N 93.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 31.4N 93.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 34.7N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and nearby
ship D5DY4 indicate that Cindy has strengthened to 50 kt based on
peak SFMR and flight-level winds of 51 kt and 62 kt, respectively,
and the ship report of winds near 50 kt. The NHC greatly
appreciates the observations reported by ships C6CE8, ABVZ5, D5DY4,
V7MO2, and WHED, which have been navigating through and near the
center of Cindy for the past several hours.
The initial motion estimate is 310/06 kt based on recent
reconnaissance fixes. A northwestward motion is expected for the
next 24 hours, after which Cindy is expected to recurve northward
and then northeastward around the western portion of the strong
subtropical ridge located over the southeastern United States. The
18Z model guidance has shifted slightly to the east, and the new
NHC track has been adjusted a little to the east as well, close to
the consensus track model TVCA. Given the nature of the circulation
and the fact that wind and rain hazards extend well north and east
of the center, users are encouraged not to focus on the details of
the track forecast.
Although Cindy has strengthened this evening, little change in
strength is expected for the next 12 hours or so, followed by
gradual weakening thereafter due to the combination of strong
vertical wind shear and abundance of dry mid-level preventing the
development of significant inner-core convection. The new NHC
intensity follows the trend of the previous advisory and is a
little above the intensity consensus model IVCN.
The 34-kt wind radii were expanded in the northwest and northeast
quadrants based on recon wind data, and observations from coastal
and offshore buoy data. This has required and eastward extension of
the Tropical Storm Warning along the north-central Gulf coast.
The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall
over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more
information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local
National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 26.4N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 27.0N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 28.1N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 29.8N 93.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 31.4N 93.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 34.7N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017
...CINDY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 92.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued north and east of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, including Metropolitan New Orleans
and Lake Pontchartrain.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest
and then toward the north is expected tonight and Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of
southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and
move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on
Thursday.
Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is expected before landfall, with weakening
expected thereafter.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.
The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This
rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7
inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and
eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread
northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5
inches with locally higher amounts possible.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and
northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area today through
Thursday.
STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible
elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight from
the western Florida Panhandle across southwest Alabama, southern
Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017
...CINDY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 92.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued north and east of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, including Metropolitan New Orleans
and Lake Pontchartrain.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest
and then toward the north is expected tonight and Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of
southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and
move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on
Thursday.
Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is expected before landfall, with weakening
expected thereafter.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.
The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This
rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7
inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and
eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread
northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5
inches with locally higher amounts possible.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and
northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area today through
Thursday.
STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible
elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight from
the western Florida Panhandle across southwest Alabama, southern
Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017
Cindy has the overall appearance of a subtropical cyclone this
morning with a convective cluster just northwest of the center and
additional convection in a ragged band well removed from the center
in the eastern semicircle. However, there is more convection near
the center than earlier, so the system remains a tropical cyclone on
this advisory. Regular water vapor imagery and experimental
low-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 show that a significant
amount of dry air is present just east of the center, and this is
likely disrupting the convective organization. Surface observations
and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the maximum winds have decreased a little and are now near 45
kt. The data also show that the 34-kt wind radii have decreased
over the northeastern quadrant.
The initial motion is now 310/9. There is little change in either
the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the
previous advisory. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move
through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the
northwest Gulf of Mexico coast. Later in the forecast period Cindy,
or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward in the westerlies
over the eastern United States.
Given the presence of the dry air near the center and its affects
on the convection, little change in strength is expected before
landfall. Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become
absorbed in a frontal system over the eastern United States just
after 72 h.
While the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from
intensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall
threat. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening
flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the
flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 27.6N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 28.5N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 30.3N 93.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/0000Z 32.3N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1200Z 34.3N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/1200Z 37.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017
Cindy has the overall appearance of a subtropical cyclone this
morning with a convective cluster just northwest of the center and
additional convection in a ragged band well removed from the center
in the eastern semicircle. However, there is more convection near
the center than earlier, so the system remains a tropical cyclone on
this advisory. Regular water vapor imagery and experimental
low-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 show that a significant
amount of dry air is present just east of the center, and this is
likely disrupting the convective organization. Surface observations
and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the maximum winds have decreased a little and are now near 45
kt. The data also show that the 34-kt wind radii have decreased
over the northeastern quadrant.
The initial motion is now 310/9. There is little change in either
the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the
previous advisory. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move
through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the
northwest Gulf of Mexico coast. Later in the forecast period Cindy,
or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward in the westerlies
over the eastern United States.
Given the presence of the dry air near the center and its affects
on the convection, little change in strength is expected before
landfall. Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become
absorbed in a frontal system over the eastern United States just
after 72 h.
While the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from
intensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall
threat. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening
flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the
flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 27.6N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 28.5N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 30.3N 93.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/0000Z 32.3N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1200Z 34.3N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/1200Z 37.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~