Scott747 wrote:With euro being initialized with the 10pm location. Extrapolate this run and it's closer to Aransas and San Antonio Bay, and not Corpus.
I think there will be a shift slightly up the coast with the 4 am package.
I won't be too critical of the nhc as i understand the idea of continuity and not changing that much between advisories. But with the center relocations the 4 am package should have moved up the coast.
Anyways... 12z runs are important if there are any hints of something further up the coast. Getting close that hurricane conditions could effect some of our immediate area.
Major hurricane forecasted into the middle TX coast.
Life threatening storm surge likely middle TX coast
Rush preparations to protect life and property to completion in the hurricane warning area.
Coastal residents in Matagorda Bay southward to Corpus be prepared for immediate mandatory evacuations….heed all advice from local emergency officials.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Just an opinion, but I would think the more and more the track shifts N and E, the higher the probability is for us to see the 20"+ rather than be less. NHC may need to start thinking about expanding the watches and warnings eastward a bit. At least to cover Jefferson county (BPT area) and extreme SWLA parishes for watches. If this shift NE is the new trend, unfortunately we are running out of time to evac if need be. We've seen MANY cases where we end up getting caught off guard. Always best to prepare any time a storm threatens Texas or even Louisiana.
davidiowx wrote:Steve, looks like you will be adding Harvey to your list of storms in your sig.
Unfortunately it certainly does, David. I am going to step away for a while and finish some of my preparations and sure my family, extended family and friends have stepped up the preparations as well. So proud of ALL of our folks for continuing are longstanding pledge to provide the most reliable and accurate information as humanly possible to our Neighbors. Our Weather Community is very well respected because the way YOU, our Members conduct our Discussion and information provided that greatly assists our Partnership with the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center. Kudos gang! Keep up the good work!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Thank you Steve..for all you do...for the forecasting..for being a pro met that is available to the community..for keeping us on the straight and narrow..thanks...and for all of us, be weather wary. Be prepared. Have your plan and work it. Stay tuned here for updates and analysis...
We are all weather nerds here - to get the official information out - share the NHC link and tell them that's the official forecast. As we all live for the model runs - the NHC has a good handle on what they are forecasting.
For those that are old enough - I wasn't born yet (1961) Hurricane Carla made landfall around Port Lavaca and left Houston flooded. I saw home movies my parents took and it was insane the amount of flooding in and around Highlands and Baytown.
Prayers for all those in the path - the waiting sometimes is the hardest part.
Really worried about the flooding potential up here in Houston area, and very concerned about our place in Oyster Creek near Freeport. Pulled the boat out and brought it back to Cypress, and made some house preparations yesterday evening. However, not enough if this monster continues to RI, and I don't see what is going to stop that though.
Hoping for the best for everyone in the path of Harvey!
tgal wrote:Thank all of you so very much. I have a very disappointed daughter but you helped. As of now she is going to call it off. I hope they do call for evacuations because I am worried about her family that is down there.
Again, I really appreciate your help
I didn't even know there was a Portland in Texas.
Yep Oz, it is near Gregory Texas......it is near Beaumont...
There's another Portland, TX on Corpus Christi Bay. That's the LAST place you want to be with Harvey approaching.
Thanks Steve and to the other mets, weather nerds, as well as everyone else who contributes and reads this forum. This is a great place to get very accurate information. It's definitely my go to for weather around here! Everyone stay safe and please, please stay up to date on the conditions as they can change rapidly as we have already witnessed.
MRG93415 wrote:Ok, so it will be a Hurricane now, a major one. So does that put Houston out of this flooding threat or is it going to be worse. I am sorry, this is all so confusing and I am trying to keep up...
Good question and the answer is, likely no. Houston is still in a very serious flood threat and possible hurricane threat. The track is continuing to shift ever so slightly more N and E of the initial track. All we can do now is watch, be prepared and be ready to act fast in the event of sudden changes to the forecast.
The east side of the storm will bear onshore winds, surge, and heavier rain. Also the greatest chance of tornados.
...it is near Beaumont...
