August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[Texaspirate11]

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC
FLOODING...

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Colorado County in southeastern Texas...
Eastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Washington County in southeastern Texas...
Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Central Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...
Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1045 AM CDT Sunday.

[Texaspirate11]

Large shift in track from nws

are you saying this is closer to houston????

I think so.

YES but the "good news" is that it will shift the rain bands to LA.

[TexasBreeze]

Didn't expect the forecast totals to verify- in ONE NIGHT!!! That emergency covers a large area! Maybe the bands will go to LA in the end...

[TexasBreeze]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
601 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING...

.DISCUSSION...
Epic and catastrophic flooding has occurred in and around the
Houston and Galveston areas and surrounding communities overnight,
and very heavy rains continue falling across these areas early
this morning. Rainfall totals between Saturday evening and early
this morning have totaled 15 to 30 inches. Tropical Storm Harvey
is approximately 50 miles east southeast of San Antonio and has
remained nearly stationary all night long. Showers and thunderstorms
along Harvey`s feeder bands have spread 4 to 6 inch per hour producing
rainfall rates resulting in this historic event. Activity continues
spreading across already devastated areas with hourly rainfall
rates averaging around 4 to 5 inches in the Matagorda-Brazoria
County storms and around 6 to 7 inches in the Galveston-Harris
County area storms. We might get a break from the rain some time
later today, but additional storm development is likely overnight.
It is possible that these new storms could become concentrated a
little further westward than this morning`s activity. However,
with Harvey expected to remain in the same general area between
its current location and the coast over the next several days,
additional life-threatening rainfall totals of 15 to 25 inches
with isolated higher amounts are possible across the Flash Flood
Watch area over the next several days, and results could be
devastating if any of these rains fall where catastrophic flooding
has already occurred. 42
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There have been record crests across numerous bayous across southern
Harris County overnight. Due to the heavy rain, we are expecting
record crests during the week ahead. 43

[cperk]

I have picked up 4.3 inches in a couple hours.

[Freeporttx3334]

Starting to get standing water here in the freepprt/clute area...man this rain won't stop!

[Katdaddy]

One word.........EPIC!!! The house almost took on water early this morning. I have never seen flooding this bad in the neighborhood with multiple homes flooded. 9.47" since midnight.

[Ounce]

Tornado Warning
TXC245-271415-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0059.170827T1352Z-170827T1415Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
852 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 915 AM CDT

* At 851 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Port Acres, or 7 miles southwest of Nederland,
moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Nederland and Southeast Texas Regional Airport around 900 AM CDT.
Central Gardens around 905 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Sea
Rim State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3008 9443 3011 9408 3010 9409 3008 9409
3007 9403 3003 9403 3003 9400 2985 9393
2983 9395 2982 9392 2981 9395 2980 9395
2981 9393 2977 9393 2977 9390 2968 9387
2968 9400 2966 9417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1351Z 168DEG 27KT 2989 9408

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

24

[srainhoutx]

KHOU evacuating their Station on Allen Parkway.

[Ounce]

KHOU evacuating their Station on Allen Parkway.

Isn't this the first time for an evacuation? Seems like it's flooded the studios at least 3 times.

[Ounce]

KHOU's signal just dropped off TV at 9:52 a.m. Cut Brandi Smith off in mid-sentence. She's been doing a wonderful job soloing for the station on the North Belt east of Imperial Valley.

I understand from FB the station has taken up temporary residence at the Federal Reserve building.

[Cromagnum]

Some of the news crews are despicable. Nobody who just escaped high waters wants a microphone shoved in their face just so you can get a story that you hope is better than another station's. Channel 13 is really making asses out of themselves.

[srainhoutx]

We know many of our neighbors and even Members of the KHOU Weather Forum Community have water in their homes. The next feeder band is crawling general to the East with the embedded stronger thunderstorm racing NNW to NW. Harris County Flood Control District Water Gauges are showing anywhere for 10 to 20 inches the past 24 hours not only in Harris County, but our surrounding Counties that have gauges linked to HCFCD.

Unfortunately the sensible weather forecast does not look encouraging at all. Both short fuse mesoscale guidance as well as the longer (48 to 60 hour) mesoscale guidance paint another 20+ inches across some location across SE Texas. That said we may see about a 12 to 14 hour break in the heaviest rainfall which is sorely needed to allow some drainage before the atmosphere destabilizes again possibly leading to another nocturnal rain event tonight into tomorrow. If you are safe and dry, STAY HOME. Our First Responders are at Capacity and it make take a while for help to arrive. Coast Guard Helicopters are recuing people stranded. I understand the National Guard Black Hawks are incoming as I type. Not going to pin point exact locations, but the guidance generally agree Harvey will move little today into tonight.

Below are 4 key graphics to sum it up. Harvey is stalled and likely will not begin to meander to the SE tonight into tomorrow. It will not move quickly. Any movement looks to be less the 2 to 5 miles per hour and that's just the center of circulation. The newly Updated Track from the NHC continues to be very concerning.

The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook keeps our Region in High Risk for the next 72 Hours. The image is just for today (24 hours).

The WPC paints a very worrisome Day 3 to 7 Surface Chart Forecast Outlook. We likely will be dealing with Harvey in some form or fashion into next weekend. Please Stay Safe. We hope everyone heeded the advise posted here and across the NWS/NHC/WPC Local/State/ Federal Government well ahead of time and we will keep everyone Updated.

[Texaspirate11]

waving the white flag down by the bay area....enough already.

[DoctorMu]

There isn't a lot of rain by the center of circulation. There's been no wrap around for over 12 hours. So ironically, if the center moves east, the heaviest bands would be found heading towards Lake Charles. We are already seeing heavier bands moving towards Beaumont and Lake Charles.

As the storm loses angular momentum and slows down, the pinwheel rain bands move outward.

[srainhoutx]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1055 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...EPIC AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES IN AND AROUND THE
HOUSTON AND GALVESTON AREAS...

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES CONTINUE FOR LIFE-THREATENING
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING...

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to stream across Southeast
Texas this morning while rotating around slowly south southeastward
moving Tropical Storm Harvey. If there is any good news, it might
be that the rainfall rates in our county warning area are not as
high as they were during the catastrophic events overnight. Even
though these rains are lighter, some of them are falling on already
devastated areas and are aggravating ongoing rescue efforts.
Flash Flood Emergencies and Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect,
and we also continue to deal with rotating cells that are producing
radar indicated tornado signatures. As for the forecast update,
current thinking is that there should be a break in this morning's
activity. Additional development is anticipated this evening and
overnight by almost every model, and this batch of storms could be
the next round of very heavy rainfall. If these storms move into
or develop across already flooded areas, Harvey's epic catastrophic
flood event will only get worse. With the slow movement of Harvey
anticipated over the next several days, additional rainfall amounts
of 15 to 25 inches are expected through Friday. Any rainfall amounts
this high will lead to more catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.
Unfortunately, this event is no where close from being over. 42

[MontgomeryCoWx]

There isn't a lot of rain by the center of circulation. There's been no wrap around for over 12 hours. So ironically, if the center moves east, the heaviest bands would be found heading towards Lake Charles. We are already seeing heavier bands moving towards Beaumont and Lake Charles.

As the storm loses angular momentum and slows down, the pinwheel rain bands move outward.

Precipitable water values are also higher here than where the center currently is located...

[Andrew]

There isn't a lot of rain by the center of circulation. There's been no wrap around for over 12 hours. So ironically, if the center moves east, the heaviest bands would be found heading towards Lake Charles. We are already seeing heavier bands moving towards Beaumont and Lake Charles.

As the storm loses angular momentum and slows down, the pinwheel rain bands move outward.

Biggest issue is that close to the center currently a lot of drier air is being entrained. Once this system starts to shift to the south and southeast more gulf moisture should help fill that in to a degree. With that said, I do agree that a disorganized TS will see more widespread to the east. Good news is current HRRR and mesoscale models indicate we should see some decrease in storm coverage over the western half of SE Texas later today.

[srainhoutx]

Keeping a keen eye on a new feeder band developing back to our North and West. That new band extends from near Sargent to just S of Columbus. Cloud tops are indicating that cooling is beginning across the new feeder band where the moisture tap extends down to Corpus.

[Cromagnum]

GOES-16 run of Harvey from the Yucatan until now.

https://mobile.twitter.com/GOESguy/stat ... 33/video/1