August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[Ounce]

KHOU's signal just dropped off TV at 9:52 a.m. Cut Brandi Smith off in mid-sentence. She's been doing a wonderful job soloing for the station on the North Belt east of Imperial Valley.

I understand from FB the station has taken up temporary residence at the Federal Reserve building.

[Cromagnum]

Some of the news crews are despicable. Nobody who just escaped high waters wants a microphone shoved in their face just so you can get a story that you hope is better than another station's. Channel 13 is really making asses out of themselves.

[srainhoutx]

We know many of our neighbors and even Members of the KHOU Weather Forum Community have water in their homes. The next feeder band is crawling general to the East with the embedded stronger thunderstorm racing NNW to NW. Harris County Flood Control District Water Gauges are showing anywhere for 10 to 20 inches the past 24 hours not only in Harris County, but our surrounding Counties that have gauges linked to HCFCD.

Unfortunately the sensible weather forecast does not look encouraging at all. Both short fuse mesoscale guidance as well as the longer (48 to 60 hour) mesoscale guidance paint another 20+ inches across some location across SE Texas. That said we may see about a 12 to 14 hour break in the heaviest rainfall which is sorely needed to allow some drainage before the atmosphere destabilizes again possibly leading to another nocturnal rain event tonight into tomorrow. If you are safe and dry, STAY HOME. Our First Responders are at Capacity and it make take a while for help to arrive. Coast Guard Helicopters are recuing people stranded. I understand the National Guard Black Hawks are incoming as I type. Not going to pin point exact locations, but the guidance generally agree Harvey will move little today into tonight.

Below are 4 key graphics to sum it up. Harvey is stalled and likely will not begin to meander to the SE tonight into tomorrow. It will not move quickly. Any movement looks to be less the 2 to 5 miles per hour and that's just the center of circulation. The newly Updated Track from the NHC continues to be very concerning.

The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook keeps our Region in High Risk for the next 72 Hours. The image is just for today (24 hours).

The WPC paints a very worrisome Day 3 to 7 Surface Chart Forecast Outlook. We likely will be dealing with Harvey in some form or fashion into next weekend. Please Stay Safe. We hope everyone heeded the advise posted here and across the NWS/NHC/WPC Local/State/ Federal Government well ahead of time and we will keep everyone Updated.

[Texaspirate11]

waving the white flag down by the bay area....enough already.

[DoctorMu]

There isn't a lot of rain by the center of circulation. There's been no wrap around for over 12 hours. So ironically, if the center moves east, the heaviest bands would be found heading towards Lake Charles. We are already seeing heavier bands moving towards Beaumont and Lake Charles.

As the storm loses angular momentum and slows down, the pinwheel rain bands move outward.

[srainhoutx]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1055 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...EPIC AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES IN AND AROUND THE
HOUSTON AND GALVESTON AREAS...

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES CONTINUE FOR LIFE-THREATENING
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING...

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to stream across Southeast
Texas this morning while rotating around slowly south southeastward
moving Tropical Storm Harvey. If there is any good news, it might
be that the rainfall rates in our county warning area are not as
high as they were during the catastrophic events overnight. Even
though these rains are lighter, some of them are falling on already
devastated areas and are aggravating ongoing rescue efforts.
Flash Flood Emergencies and Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect,
and we also continue to deal with rotating cells that are producing
radar indicated tornado signatures. As for the forecast update,
current thinking is that there should be a break in this morning's
activity. Additional development is anticipated this evening and
overnight by almost every model, and this batch of storms could be
the next round of very heavy rainfall. If these storms move into
or develop across already flooded areas, Harvey's epic catastrophic
flood event will only get worse. With the slow movement of Harvey
anticipated over the next several days, additional rainfall amounts
of 15 to 25 inches are expected through Friday. Any rainfall amounts
this high will lead to more catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.
Unfortunately, this event is no where close from being over. 42

[MontgomeryCoWx]

There isn't a lot of rain by the center of circulation. There's been no wrap around for over 12 hours. So ironically, if the center moves east, the heaviest bands would be found heading towards Lake Charles. We are already seeing heavier bands moving towards Beaumont and Lake Charles.

As the storm loses angular momentum and slows down, the pinwheel rain bands move outward.

Precipitable water values are also higher here than where the center currently is located...

[Andrew]

There isn't a lot of rain by the center of circulation. There's been no wrap around for over 12 hours. So ironically, if the center moves east, the heaviest bands would be found heading towards Lake Charles. We are already seeing heavier bands moving towards Beaumont and Lake Charles.

As the storm loses angular momentum and slows down, the pinwheel rain bands move outward.

Biggest issue is that close to the center currently a lot of drier air is being entrained. Once this system starts to shift to the south and southeast more gulf moisture should help fill that in to a degree. With that said, I do agree that a disorganized TS will see more widespread to the east. Good news is current HRRR and mesoscale models indicate we should see some decrease in storm coverage over the western half of SE Texas later today.

[srainhoutx]

Keeping a keen eye on a new feeder band developing back to our North and West. That new band extends from near Sargent to just S of Columbus. Cloud tops are indicating that cooling is beginning across the new feeder band where the moisture tap extends down to Corpus.

[Cromagnum]

GOES-16 run of Harvey from the Yucatan until now.

https://mobile.twitter.com/GOESguy/stat ... 33/video/1

[mckinne63]

Pro Mets, heard this morning on the News that it is possible that the dry area to our west may move this North and East. Than saw someone <not credible source> post that Harvey was doing a 180 degree turn south.

What's the real scoop? I know he is not moving out of the area soon, but want to know where he may be headed.

Praying for everyone!

[DoctorMu]

There isn't a lot of rain by the center of circulation. There's been no wrap around for over 12 hours. So ironically, if the center moves east, the heaviest bands would be found heading towards Lake Charles. We are already seeing heavier bands moving towards Beaumont and Lake Charles.

As the storm loses angular momentum and slows down, the pinwheel rain bands move outward.

Precipitable water values are also higher here than where the center currently is located...

No doubt about it. Incoming air from the Gulf is highly saturated - it's a firehose situation. However, that will be true for Beaumont and SW Louisiana. I'd expect the heavy rain accumulations to expand eastward.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, the Center of circulation has inched southward and is just west of Victoria, and some dry air is being drawn in. Note on the water vapor imagery that the heavy moisture-laden clouds are shifting east towards Louisiana.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/comp/goes/ceus/wv.html

[mckinne63]

Yeah, the Center of circulation has inched southward and is just west of Victoria, and some dry air is being drawn in. Note on the water vapor imagery that the heavy moisture-laden clouds are shifting east towards Louisiana.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/comp/goes/ceus/wv.html

I am assuming that is good news? Will give us a chance to dry out? Will the storm dump as much rain as we have seen here if it does march east?

Did you hear from your family in West Houston?

[ticka1]

I got power back after 6 hours being out! my house is on blocks but i have an entryway with several steps - had 4 inches water in that entry way

[ticka1]

been without power and internet - can yall tell me the forecast for us here in baytown mont belveiu. we are flooded in - cant get out.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, the Center of circulation has inched southward and is just west of Victoria, and some dry air is being drawn in. Note on the water vapor imagery that the heavy moisture-laden clouds are shifting east towards Louisiana.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/comp/goes/ceus/wv.html

I am assuming that is good news? Will give us a chance to dry out? Will the storm dump as much rain as we have seen here if it does march east?

Did you hear from your family in West Houston?

Water stayed out of the house. The area around Gaessner got hammered, but pales in comparison with League City, etc.

[Texaspirate11]

For dire situations Coast Guard Assistance 281.464.4851.

[srainhoutx]

Just received word from our neighbor from Seabrook that provided those amazing radar penetration screen grabs for Harvey at landfall that he will be flying into 92L off Florida tomorrow. Perhaps someone can start a Topic in our Hurricane Central area for potential Irma.

[jasons2k]

This tornado warning is concerning. Headed right to me and the reflectivity is increasing.