August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[jasons2k]

On rapid satellite GOES-16 loops, looks like Harvey is staring to slowly drift ENE.

[txsnowmaker]

Had to get to my safe room. Jeff reports multiple reports Tornado on ground 290/99/Townlakes/West Rd/Baker Cypress. All hear are sirens from first responders.

Be safe. Thoughts and prayers with you and everyone else in its path.

[DoctorMu]

Had to get to my safe room. Jeff reports multiple reports Tornado on ground 290/99/Townlakes/West Rd/Baker Cypress. All I hear are sirens from first responders.

There are 4 concurrent tornado warnings for the area. At least 3 distinct tornadoes, from what I can glean from the warnings.

[srainhoutx]

Spotter reports damage in Town Lakes (Baker Cypress/West Rd) extending NW to Bridgeland (Fry Rd/Tuckerton)

[DoctorMu]

On rapid satellite GOES-16 loops, looks like Harvey is staring to slowly drift ENE.

Towards Cuerro...and it's unwinding, not surprisingly.

Hope everyone is safe. We'll need to monitor the NW Harris Co., Montgomery Co cells as they move towards Navasota and College Station.

[DoctorMu]

Just saw a tornado warning for Grimes County on cue. Waiting for update on NWS.

[DoctorMu]

Event: Tornado Warning
Alert:
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
NACOGDOCHES AND NORTH CENTRAL ANGELINA COUNTIES...

At 420 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Huntington, or 8 miles east of Lufkin, moving
northwest at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.
This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Nacogdoches and north central Angelina Counties, including
the following locations: Redland.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN
Instructions: TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the path of dangerous weather.
Target Area:
Angelina
Nacogdoches

[mckinne63]

The 19Z HRRR suggest a worse case scenario for Metro Houston. If that 18 hour precipitation forecast is correct, we could see significant flooding into DT Houston.

Thank you for keeping us updated srain. A couple of quick questions -- can't tell the color shaded for the western 1/2 of Harris County. How much rainfall is being depicted there? Also, does this tell you when most of the projected rainfall would fall (e.g. mostly overnight, with some later this evening/tomorrow morning), or is there no way to tell from the model?

Yes, thank you so much to all the Pro Mets here. This is my go to place for all things weather related.

[srainhoutx]

From a KHOU viewer in the Cypress Area...via twitter

[ticka1]

Had to get to my safe room. Jeff reports multiple reports Tornado on ground 290/99/Townlakes/West Rd/Baker Cypress. All I hear are sirens from first responders.

stay safe

[DoctorMu]

Event: Tornado Warning
Alert:
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES...EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY...NORTHEASTERN WALLER AND NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES...

At 421 PM CDT, three separate rotating severe thunderstorms are
capable of producing a tornado in the warned area. One was located
between Addicks and Jersey Village. The second was over Highway 290
near Cypress. The third a couple miles east of Waller on the Harris
and Waller County line. All were moving northwest at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.
Locations impacted include...
Tomball, Jersey Village, Pinehurst, Spring Branch North, Addicks Park
Ten, Spring Branch West, northern Eldridge / West Oaks, Hockley,
Waller, Magnolia, Stagecoach, Todd Mission, Fairbanks / Northwest
Crossing, Willowbrook, Westbranch, Cypress, Greater Inwood,
Carverdale, western Acres Home and Spring Branch Central.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN
Instructions: TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Target Area:
Grimes
Harris
Montgomery
Waller
Washington

[sau27]

I do understand the worry cause by the last few HRRR runs, but hasn't it performed rather poorly all day?

[Freeporttx3334]

Freeport hasn't seen any rain In about a good 7 hrs..most of the standing water is gone..r we expecting more feeder bands tonight and tomorrow?

[ronyan]

Freeport hasn't seen any rain In about a good 7 hrs..most of the standing water is gone..r we expecting more feeder bands tonight and tomorrow?

Yeah band coming through in 30 minutes. Tonight could get bad.

[srainhoutx]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
454 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding expected due to
prolonged heavy rainfall from Harvey...

.DISCUSSION...
With Harvey meandering just west of the forecast area, rain and
feeder bands will move over Southeast Texas until the storm moves
out of the area. Short term high resolution models show the
potential for rain bands to produce 10 to 15 inches of rain just
tonight and Sunday morning. Rainfall of 10 to 15 inches within 6
or 12 hours will produce flash flooding. In addition, rainfall
rates could exceed 4 inches per hour. If these intense rain bands
with these amounts occur over the metro areas, flooding could
impact homes, roadways, and the highway system.

In addition, isolated tornadoes will continue to be possible. A
tornado watch continues in effect through 2:00 AM Sunday.

With Harvey pretty much stuck in very weak upper level steering,
the potential for heavy rainfall will persist into Wednesday.
Global models continue to show the rainfall potential from tonight
through Wednesday evening of 15 to 25 inches. Isolated maximum
amounts of up to 40 inches for the entire event is possible.

It should be stressed that anyone planning to travel should check
with TXDOT, Houston TranStar, or other trusted sources for road
conditions prior to travel. Rainfall of this magnitude could cause
major flooding of the highway system.

40

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread addition rainfall of 15 to 25 inches with storm totals
of 40 inches would cause river flooding categories of widespread
Moderate flooding. Many areas would experience Major and Record
flooding. Individual river forecasts as of 4:00 PM include:

* Lavaca-Navidad: Widespread Major river flooding
* Colorado: Major river flooding below the Colorado River at La
Grange
* Tres Palacios: Moderate flooding now and Major flooding
forecast
* San Bernard: Major with Record river flooding likely
* Brazos:
- Minor flooding upstream of Hempstead
- Moderate flooding at San Felipe
- Major flooding from Richmond downstream
* San Jacinto River: Moderate to Major flooding
* Houston Bayous: Moderate to Major flooding (will be critical
depending on intensity and rainfall amounts)
* Trinity River: Moderate at Liberty and possible Minor at Moss
Bluff
KLG

[Belmer]

The 18z NAM 3km is absolutely off the charts with rainfall the next 72 hours. I can't even fathom what these models are showing for us the next couple of days. The profile sounding over Houston shows the atmosphere can very well dump a tremendous amount of rain for our area tonight.

[DoctorMu]

Event: Tornado Warning
Alert:
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
GRIMES...NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...
NORTHEASTERN WALLER AND NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES...

At 524 PM CDT, a band of showers and thunderstorms, with embedded
cells showing rotation capable of producing a tornado was located
from about 6 miles west of Pinehurst to about 7 miles west of
Tomball. Movement of individual cells within the band is northwest
at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.
Locations impacted include...
Tomball, Pinehurst, Magnolia, Stagecoach, Todd Mission, Cypress,
Plantersville, Dobbin and Dacus.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN
Instructions: TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Target Area:
Grimes
Harris
Montgomery
Waller
Washington

[CAK]

I could be wrong but I think this thing just took a turn for east...

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-13-48-1

[djmike]

Guys what are the latest models projecting for rainfall totals for beaumont? Does the possible 12-15" that hou nws stated in their discussion possible for beaumont too? Our nws LC has been really laxed on telling bmt what we can expect. So no clue. Thanks in advance.

[DoctorMu]

That heavy band beginning to train in B/CS. Flash flooding, potential tornadoes likely.