August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
unome
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Harris County OHSEM - @ReadyHarris
Periscope - press "h" to remove comments

https://www.pscp.tv/ReadyHarris/1ypJdllaWbaJW

will have another press conf this afternoon - all are available at link above
Last edited by unome on Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Texaspirate11
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Mandatory evacuation:Dickinson by 2pm. Dickinson emergency management:281-337-4700 x311
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Snowman wrote:Unless I'm wrong about where the center is, it looks to me that it is unlikely that the NHC's official track for Harvey will verify. It looks like it's slowly moving north east now and it definitely does not look like it is moving south
Guessing the circulation is hugging the coast just NE of Matagorda Bay moving NE. Seems like a small dry spot NE of the center. Anybody else see this?
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srainhoutx
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Updated 3 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Outlook from the Weather Prediction Center.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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BlueJay
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Heat Miser wrote:Incredible animation from the NWS.

https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/9 ... 3709804544

This is amazing and describes just what has happened these last few days. Thanks for sharing!
Srain, you, and so many others that we have seen on the news, are a great inspiration for all. People helping people is what this is all about. Thanks to you all!
Snowman
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srainhoutx wrote:Updated 3 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Outlook from the Weather Prediction Center.
Srain do you really think that we are going to get another 15 inches of rain in the next couple of days? It looks like the heaviest rain is shifting east and the storm is choking on dry air. Unless something major changes I don't see how we get 15-20 more inches of rain
Fire213
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Is there a good list of cumulative rainfall totals for Pearland going back to Thursday night?
Fire213
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What is the cumulative rainfall total for the Pearland area since Thursday night?
ticka1
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Rip76 wrote:Morning everyone.
Hope everyone is fairing well this morning.

Just curious, what is the best website for road closures, flooded roads, and evacuations?

Thanks in advance and be safe.
transtar
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don wrote:The NAM including the Texas Tech WRF has been consistently depicting this scenario the last few runs, it looks like it was on to something.
what scenario?
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srainhoutx
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Snowman wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Updated 3 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Outlook from the Weather Prediction Center.
Srain do you really think that we are going to get another 15 inches of rain in the next couple of days? It looks like the heaviest rain is shifting east and the storm is choking on dry air. Unless something major changes I don't see how we get 15-20 more inches of rain
We have witnessed the rapid changes throughout the history of Harvey. Many...including some on air Meteorologists yesterday stated they were hopeful the worst was over due to dry air entrainment. We see today that Harvey and nature had other ideas. Those Catastrophic QPF totals are now verifying. Even the most seasoned and typically conservative Professional Meteorologists are in awe of what Harvey has brought to our Region. Prepare for the worst...which is occurring at this time...and pray/hope for the best.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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ticka1
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Texaspirate11 wrote:updated shelters

◾American Legion Hall 14890 FM 2100 Rd. Crosby
◾Baytown Community Center 2407 Market St Baytown 77520
◾Church Project 295 Sawdust Rd Spring 77380
◾Copeland Elementary 24405 E. Lake Houston Pkwy" Huffman 77306
◾Crosby High School 333 W Summit Dr Crosby 77532
◾Dobie High School 10220 Blackhawk Blvd Houston 77089
◾First Baptist Church 210 N. Magnolia Highlands
◾First Baptist Church Huffman 25503 FM 2100 Huffman
◾First Baptist Church Tomball 401 Oxford St. Tomball
◾Friendswood High School 702 Greenbriar Dr Friendswood 77546
◾George R. Brown 1001 Avenida de Las America Houston
◾Golden Acres Bapist Church 2812 Pansey St. Pasadena 77503
◾Katy High School 6331 Highway Blvd Katy 77494
◾Key Middle School 4000 Kelly St. Houston 77026
◾Metropolitan Baptist Church 13000 Jones Rd Houston 77007
◾MO Campbell Ed. Center 1865 Aldine Bender Houston 77032
◾North Shore High School 13501 Holly Park Dr. Houston 77015
◾Old Matzke Elementary 13102 Jones Rd.
◾Pasadena High School 206 S Shaver Pasadena 77506
◾Patrick Henry Middle School 10702 East Hardy Rd Houston 77093
◾Paul Revere School 10502 Briar Forest Houston 77077
◾Sheldon Elementary 17203 Hall Shephard Rd Houston 77049
◾South Houston Intermediate 900 College




Emmy can i copy and paste this on facebook?
◾Trini Mendenhall 1414 Wirt Rd Houston 77055
◾Wallisville Courthouse 14350 Wallisville Rd Houston
◾Wheatley High School 4801 Providence St Houston 77020
◾Westside High School 14201 Briar Foreat Houston 77077
◾First Baptist Church 4422 Lauder Rd
◾Channelview Highschool
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Texaspirate11
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ticka - yes of course
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sswinney
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This has been absolutely insane. I watched the water rise into my home early Sunday morning. I called for evac but none ever came. Eventually after 7 hours of waiting I left on foot. I trekked about 2 miles through varying heights of water finally finding a national guard truck that took me to a shelter. From there I was able to line up a hotel and get to it. I don't know when I'll be able to go back home. I'm good now but nervous about my home near Dickinson. I just want this to stop for everyone.
Been here for years since Katrina.
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sswinney wrote:This has been absolutely insane. I watched the water rise into my home early Sunday morning. I called for evac but none ever came. Eventually after 7 hours of waiting I left on foot. I trekked about 2 miles through varying heights of water finally finding a national guard truck that took me to a shelter. From there I was able to line up a hotel and get to it. I don't know when I'll be able to go back home. I'm good now but nervous about my home near Dickinson. I just want this to stop for everyone.
OMG, I can't even imagine. Glad to hear you are safe!
Snowman
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sswinney wrote:This has been absolutely insane. I watched the water rise into my home early Sunday morning. I called for evac but none ever came. Eventually after 7 hours of waiting I left on foot. I trekked about 2 miles through varying heights of water finally finding a national guard truck that took me to a shelter. From there I was able to line up a hotel and get to it. I don't know when I'll be able to go back home. I'm good now but nervous about my home near Dickinson. I just want this to stop for everyone.
That is so awful. I'm glad you were able to make it to safety and I'm praying for you and your neighbors in Dickinson.
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Belmer
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For those who know Bill Read (Former Director of the National Hurricane Center and longtime resident of Houston) has posted an update on Facebook about an hour ago:

"Update. Not liking the recent trend on radar. Area wide rain showers have increased all morning. Of particular note is the heavier band that has formed to the north and northeast of the center of Harvey, which is currently near the coast southeast of Bay City. This band has been growing north and northeast reaching across northern Galveston County and southeastern Harris County. Rain rates according to radar are 1-2 inches per hour. While not the hellish 5-6 inch per hour rate of Saturday night, too many hours of this rain on top of our ongoing flood will be bad news. I've had just over 3 inches since 6 am. More bad news is that in my experience the rain near the core of tropical storms over land tends to increase at night. Not alway, but a concern. The center of Harvey is forecast to move slowly east then northeast along the coast then finally move northeast away from our area Wednesday.
I did a little recon of the west League City area. Neighborhood roads ok. the main road - 518- was cut off by flooding to our west before FM 528. A few lost souls had tried to drive thru and were flooded out. Hardly any businesses open. A Kroger store was open with a long line of people waiting their turn to enter. According to the news the wait was 2 hours... We are well provisioned except for coffee which if rationed properly will last through Wednesday. Enough Scotch till October. Eating mainly the perishables for now in case power fails and have at least a weeks worth of non perishables. I bet we dig into some of it before this disaster is over...
Storm total rain at Casa Read now over 3 feet.."
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Fire213 wrote:What is the cumulative rainfall total for the Pearland area since Thursday night?
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... v=rainfall
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Belmer
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BIG difference in NAM 3km 12z vs 18z. The 18z wants to slow Harvey slowing down in the Gulf near the Galveston coast and the rains intensifying overnight tonight into tomorrow as that rainshield currently over us just won't move. Scary situation and I sure hope that is just a bad model run.

HRRR is not handling this current rain over Houston at all very well. Hasn't done well last several runs, so that is not very helpful.
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Belmer wrote:BIG difference in NAM 3km 12z vs 18z. The 18z wants to slow Harvey slowing down in the Gulf near the Galveston coast and the rains intensifying overnight tonight into tomorrow as that rainshield currently over us just won't move. Scary situation and I sure hope that is just a bad model run.

HRRR is not handling this current rain over Houston at all very well. Hasn't done well last several runs, so that is not very helpful.
Not a pro met, but my gut tells me this scenario, and we all know what these systems do at night. Moderate to heavy rain all day will only intensify tonight. I hope my gut's wrong. And yes srain some local meteorologist were hopeful a drying trend seen from the water vapor would bring good tidings, but these tropical systems create their own weather. The gulf just feeds this monster and will continue to do so.
Last edited by Heat Miser on Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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