August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[mckinne63]

Really concerned here, high water on the side of our house and we have a drainage system. But the water has no where to go when the street is a river.

[Baseballdude2915]

Torrential rainfall here in Dickinson since around 9PM. 2+ inches per hour.

[DoctorMu]

Really concerned here, high water on the side of our house and we have a drainage system. But the water has no where to go when the street is a river.

If I read the radar correctly, it could lighten up for you in Stafford within 30 min.

[DoctorMu]

https://twitter.com/CivilDefWatch/statu ... 5867036672

[DoctorMu]

Event: Flash Flood Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Brazos County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 400 AM CDT.

* At 1256 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Two to four inches has fallen
there in the last few hours on top of heavy rainfall yesterday.
Showers and thunderstorms some with heavy rainfall will continue
across the area. Flash flooding is already occuring or expected
to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Southern College Station, Humble, Tomball, Navasota, Pinehurst,
Cloverleaf, The Woodlands, Greater Greenspoint, Spring, Aldine,
Channelview, northern Northside / Northline, Kingwood, Oak Ridge
North, Shenandoah, Magnolia, Montgomery, Stagecoach, Millican and
Anderson.
Instructions: Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying spots.
Target Area:
Brazos
Grimes
Harris
Montgomery
Waller

[Scott747]

The developing band to the sw could be as jntense as the previous one.

[srainhoutx]

Jeff reports people climbing into attics in S Houston to escape the rising flood waters.

[txflagwaver]

Water in homes in El Lago (Seabrook).

[mckinne63]

Really concerned here, high water on the side of our house and we have a drainage system. But the water has no where to go when the street is a river.

If I read the radar correctly, it could lighten up for you in Stafford within 30 min.

I sure hope so! It stopped for a but is now raining again. Only time I have seen water lapping up the driveway was during Allison. And we have never seen standing water on the side of the side of the house like we have seen this evening.

[DoctorMu]

The developing band to the sw could be as jntense as the previous one.

It's approaching Bay City.

[ticka1]

crazy4disney - not sure of her nickname here at khou has water in her house! gina!

[srainhoutx]

Katdaddy reports m near entering his home.

[DoctorMu]

Really concerned here, high water on the side of our house and we have a drainage system. But the water has no where to go when the street is a river.

If I read the radar correctly, it could lighten up for you in Stafford within 30 min.

I sure hope so! It stopped for a but is now raining again. Only time I have seen water lapping up the driveway was during Allison. And we have never seen standing water on the side of the side of the house like we have seen this evening.

We have family on the west side, north of you. We haven't heard from them yet.

[mckinne63]

Jeff reports people climbing into attics in S Houston to escape the rising flood waters.

My prayers go out to everyone.

[ticka1]

another line is developing out by bay city and moving over devasted areas.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The Bay City band is the intense one... there's another band forming just west of Angleton

[srainhoutx]

Jeff reports Major Flooding from NW Harris County to SE Harris County into Northern Galveston County.

[Andrew]

On top of all this flooding going on, the ECMWF indicates this storm could circle back to the gulf and make a second landfall somewhere in SE Texas. It has been rather persistent in this idea versus the other models.

[srainhoutx]

[atMESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0741
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL TO SERN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 270634Z - 271200Z

SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY TRAINING AXES OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. LOCALIZED 6
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z.

DISCUSSION...KHGX RADAR HAS SHOWN A NEARLY STATIONARY BAND OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN JUST WEST OF GALVESTON BAY WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF 4-6
IN/HR AND OBSERVED THREE HOUR REPORTS RANGING FROM 12-15 INCHES
ALONG THE HARRIS/GALVESTON COUNTY LINE ENDING 06Z. EXTREME LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE HAS BEEN IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY...LOCATED OVER GONZALES COUNTY AT 06Z BY
NHC...WITH 40-60 KT 850 MB FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH
SIDE OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES ARE
LOCATED...AND SHOULD STAY LOCATED WITHIN 75-100 MILES OF THE GULF
COAST GIVEN IT HAS BEEN THE SOURCE REGION FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY
AMID PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES.

HARVEY IS FORECAST BY NHC TO CONTINUE A VERY SLOW DRIFT IN THE
SHORT TERM WHICH IMPLIES LITTLE MOVEMENT TO LOW LEVEL AXES OF
CONVERGENCE LOCATED FROM MATAGORDA BAY TO THE SABINE RIVER WITH
EXISTING BANDS PERSISTING OR SLOWLY MORPHING TO A NEARBY LOCATION
THROUGH 12Z. WHILE THE INFLOW BAND CONTAINING THE EXTREME RAINFALL
RATES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF GALVESTON BAY HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
REORGANIZING OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES...A NEW STATIONARY BAND HAS
DEVELOPED OVER MATAGORDA BAY EXTENDING NORTH INTO WHARTON COUNTY
AS OF 06Z.

GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN FORCING MECHANISMS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS...LOCATIONS EAST OF HARVEY
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SLOW MOVING TO NEARLY STATIONARY AXES
OF RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 6 IN/HR WITH 6 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER 10 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. GIVEN THESE EXTREME RAINFALL
RATES ON TOP OF AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...VERY DANGEROUS AND
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

tachment=0]08272017 mcd0741.gif[/attachment]

[mcheer23]

On top of all this flooding going on, the ECMWF indicates this storm could circle back to the gulf and make a second landfall somewhere in SE Texas. It has been rather persistent in this idea versus the other models.

More and more models are doing this. TVCN is actually nearly showing this. Track will shift closer to this solution at 4.