August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[wxman57]

The center will always follow the convection. As the heavy squalls rotate around the storm, the center will keep wobbling toward the heavier convection. It's on track for landfall near (just north of) Corpus Christi.

[Rip76]

Thank you WX.
My eyes are going nuts.

[TexasBreeze]

Yea watching circles loops and swirls gives a headache!

[djmike]

Wow just saw harvey might not make it near Galveston till wed. Thats gonna be crazy. A weeks worth of a storm in are immediate vicinity. Crazy. Wonder if it will strengthen again once it enters the gulf for the second time. Hmmm...

[davidiowx]

Mine too Rip76.. that microwave image kinda shows a N movement towards the end.. it's more of a wait and see now.

[srainhoutx]

00Z track guidance is clustered rather well for a first landfall N of Corpus. Beyond that, still too much uncertainty. The intensity guidance suggests a possible Major CAT 3.

[jasons2k]

The TVCN is inland. Perhaps there will be a shift away from the offshore solution?

[ticka1]

time to leave models behind and watch real time what harvey does on satellie and radar!

[Ounce]

Riddle me this, Batman.

How much storm surge in Galveston Bay will be enough to inhibit the bayous to not drain into the Ship Channel, then the Bay? The present Surge Watch is 2-4 feet for the Bay.

Much obliged.

[Ounce]

For the Port Lavaca, Seadrift, and Port O'Connor folks:

STORM SURGE WARNING
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
720 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

TXZ247-250808-
/O.CON.KCRP.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
720 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

...Storm Surge Warning issued August 24 at 7:20PM CDT by NWS Corpus
Christi TX...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Port Lavaca
- Port OConnor
- Seadrift

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 1 Hurricane force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 70-90 mph with gusts to 125 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Friday morning until
Monday evening
- Window for Hurricane force winds: Friday evening until
Sunday afternoon

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of
equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Remaining efforts
to secure properties should now be brought to completion.
- Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible.
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury,
loss of life, or immense human suffering. Move to safe
shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening and historic storm
surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 8-12 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins Friday morning

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
extreme storm surge flooding greater than 9 feet above
ground.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic storm surge flooding impacts.
Evacuation efforts should now be brought to completion.
Evacuations must be complete before driving conditions
become unsafe.
- Life-threatening inundation is possible. Failure to heed
evacuation orders may result in serious injury, significant
loss of life, or immense human suffering. Leave if
evacuation orders are given for your area. Consider
voluntary evacuation if recommended. Poor decisions may
result in being cut off or needlessly risk lives.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding
greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural
damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly
compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may
be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many
lifted onshore and stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 18-24 inches, with
locally higher amounts

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat of
extreme flooding where peak rainfall totals vastly exceed
amounts conducive for flash flooding and rapid inundation.
Rescues and emergency evacuations are very likely.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic flooding rain impacts.
- Life-threatening flooding is possible. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury, significant loss of
life, or human suffering. If flood related watches and
warnings are issued, heed recommended actions. Poor
decisions may result in being cut off or needlessly risk
lives. If vulnerable, relocate to safe shelter on higher
ground before flood waters arrive.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their
banks in many places with deep moving water. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood
control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
raging water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures
with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- When implementing emergency plans, include a reasonable
threat for isolated tornadoes.
- To be safe, prepare for the potential of limited tornado
impacts.
- Listen for tornado watches and warnings. Be ready to
shelter quickly if a tornado approaches.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=crp

LAT...LON 2869 9639 2867 9634 2864 9631 2855 9645
2856 9648 2855 9651 2848 9640 2844 9639
2837 9639 2832 9640 2810 9680 2805 9681
2805 9683 2813 9684 2815 9683 2816 9684
2820 9680 2826 9680 2828 9678 2832 9669
2840 9676 2844 9676 2845 9678 2844 9683
2848 9684 2851 9691 2855 9691 2856 9689
2859 9692 2863 9689 2864 9684 2858 9684
2856 9681 2858 9678 2864 9678 2867 9675
2871 9669 2869 9665 2866 9659 2869 9659
2871 9658 2869 9642 2872 9642 2874 9640
2869 9639

$$

[Ounce]

For our Refugio, Woodsboro, and Bayside followers:

STORM SURGE WARNING
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
720 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

TXZ246-250808-
/O.CON.KCRP.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
720 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

...Storm Surge Warning issued August 24 at 7:20PM CDT by NWS Corpus
Christi TX...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Bayside
- Refugio
- Woodsboro

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 1 Hurricane force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 70-90 mph with gusts to 130 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Friday afternoon
until Monday afternoon
- Window for Hurricane force winds: Friday evening until
Sunday afternoon

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of
equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Remaining efforts
to secure properties should now be brought to completion.
- Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible.
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury,
loss of life, or immense human suffering. Move to safe
shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 7-10 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins early Friday evening

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
extreme storm surge flooding greater than 9 feet above
ground.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic storm surge flooding impacts.
Evacuation efforts should now be brought to completion.
Evacuations must be complete before driving conditions
become unsafe.
- Life-threatening inundation is possible. Failure to heed
evacuation orders may result in serious injury, significant
loss of life, or immense human suffering. Leave if
evacuation orders are given for your area. Consider
voluntary evacuation if recommended. Poor decisions may
result in being cut off or needlessly risk lives.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding
greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural
damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly
compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may
be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many
lifted onshore and stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 18-24 inches, with
locally higher amounts

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat of
extreme flooding where peak rainfall totals vastly exceed
amounts conducive for flash flooding and rapid inundation.
Rescues and emergency evacuations are very likely.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic flooding rain impacts.
- Life-threatening flooding is possible. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury, significant loss of
life, or human suffering. If flood related watches and
warnings are issued, heed recommended actions. Poor
decisions may result in being cut off or needlessly risk
lives. If vulnerable, relocate to safe shelter on higher
ground before flood waters arrive.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their
banks in many places with deep moving water. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood
control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
raging water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures
with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- When implementing emergency plans, include a reasonable
threat for isolated tornadoes.
- To be safe, prepare for the potential of limited tornado
impacts.
- Listen for tornado watches and warnings. Be ready to
shelter quickly if a tornado approaches.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=crp

LAT...LON 2855 9706 2850 9700 2851 9691 2848 9684
2844 9683 2845 9678 2844 9676 2840 9676
2839 9678 2832 9678 2831 9681 2832 9686
2829 9690 2831 9700 2828 9703 2829 9706
2828 9711 2821 9711 2823 9706 2821 9703
2818 9703 2812 9716 2808 9720 2807 9725
2813 9734 2820 9734 2818 9736 2815 9736
2810 9741 2813 9741 2816 9745 2818 9744
2816 9739 2824 9738 2823 9736 2824 9731
2826 9730 2829 9734 2834 9733 2832 9730
2834 9720 2828 9720 2824 9714 2832 9713
2834 9711 2832 9706 2840 9692 2848 9695
2847 9700 2851 9708 2853 9709 2855 9706

$$

[Ounce]

For Victoria & Bloomington folks:

STORM SURGE WARNING
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
720 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

TXZ234-250808-
/O.CON.KCRP.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
720 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

...Storm Surge Warning issued August 24 at 7:20PM CDT by NWS Corpus
Christi TX...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Victoria
- Bloomington

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 1 Hurricane force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 65-85 mph with gusts to 115 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Friday afternoon
until Monday afternoon
- Window for Hurricane force winds: Friday evening until
Sunday afternoon

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of
equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Remaining efforts
to secure properties should now be brought to completion.
- Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible.
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury,
loss of life, or immense human suffering. Move to safe
shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 18-24 inches, with
locally higher amounts

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The flooding rain threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat of
extreme flooding where peak rainfall totals vastly exceed
amounts conducive for flash flooding and rapid inundation.
Rescues and emergency evacuations are very likely.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic flooding rain impacts.
- Life-threatening flooding is possible. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury, significant loss of
life, or human suffering. If flood related watches and
warnings are issued, heed recommended actions. Poor
decisions may result in being cut off or needlessly risk
lives. If vulnerable, relocate to safe shelter on higher
ground before flood waters arrive.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their
banks in many places with deep moving water. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood
control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
raging water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures
with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- When implementing emergency plans, include a reasonable
threat for isolated tornadoes.
- To be safe, prepare for the potential of limited tornado
impacts.
- Listen for tornado watches and warnings. Be ready to
shelter quickly if a tornado approaches.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=crp

LAT...LON 2875 9698 2866 9694 2863 9689 2859 9692
2856 9689 2855 9691 2851 9691 2850 9700
2855 9706 2856 9705 2855 9701 2858 9697
2861 9702 2866 9703 2867 9706 2874 9706
2877 9702 2875 9698
LAT...LON 2883 9673 2871 9664 2869 9665 2871 9669
2867 9675 2872 9681 2877 9673 2880 9673
2883 9678 2885 9676 2890 9675 2888 9672
2883 9673

$$

[Ounce]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 250234
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE TEXAS
COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 94.6W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 245 MI...400 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 94.6 West. Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will
approach the middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday
night or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to stall near or
just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. While Harvey has changed little in strength over
the past several hours, strengthening is expected to resume later
tonight, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane by
Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country eastward through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey will cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday and Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday. These conditions are likely to persist into Saturday in
portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of the
middle and upper Texas coast on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisories at 1200 AM CDT and 200 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[sau27]

Saw a graphic posted on twitter by Channel 13 indicating possibly widespread power outages in Houston. I knew spotty outages were possible but did not think widespread outages were a big concern. Anyone else see this?

[Ounce]

Saw a graphic posted on twitter by Channel 13 indicating possibly widespread power outages in Houston. I knew spotty outages were possible but did not think widespread outages were a big concern. Anyone else see this?

I heard that it's more likely to be at the coastal counties, but the TS force winds begin the possibility of the power outages, which I believe is most of Harris County, then west and southwest towards Harvey.

I think David Paul gave Harris County an 81% chance of TS winds.

[Ounce]

STORM SURGE WARNING
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1029 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

TXZ236-251108-
/O.CON.KHGX.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1029 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

...Storm Surge Warning issued August 24 at 10:27PM CDT by NWS
Houston/Galveston TX...

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Friday
afternoon until Monday morning

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of
equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Remaining efforts
to secure properties should now be brought to completion.
- Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible.
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury,
loss of life, or immense human suffering. Move to safe
shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 7-11 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins Friday morning

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
extreme storm surge flooding greater than 9 feet above
ground.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic storm surge flooding impacts.
Evacuation efforts should now be brought to completion.
Evacuations must be complete before driving conditions
become unsafe.
- Life-threatening inundation is possible. Failure to heed
evacuation orders may result in serious injury, significant
loss of life, or immense human suffering. Leave if
evacuation orders are given for your area. Consider
voluntary evacuation if recommended. Poor decisions may
result in being cut off or needlessly risk lives.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding
greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural
damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly
compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may
be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many
lifted onshore and stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 18-24 inches, with
locally higher amounts

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The flooding rain threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat of
extreme flooding where peak rainfall totals vastly exceed
amounts conducive for flash flooding and rapid inundation.
Rescues and emergency evacuations are very likely.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic flooding rain impacts.
- Life-threatening flooding is possible. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury, significant loss of
life, or human suffering. If flood related watches and
warnings are issued, heed recommended actions. Poor
decisions may result in being cut off or needlessly risk
lives. If vulnerable, relocate to safe shelter on higher
ground before flood waters arrive.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their
banks in many places with deep moving water. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood
control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
raging water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures
with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- When implementing emergency plans, include a reasonable
threat for isolated tornadoes.
- To be safe, prepare for the potential of limited tornado
impacts.
- Listen for tornado watches and warnings. Be ready to
shelter quickly if a tornado approaches.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

LAT...LON 2909 9601 2904 9600 2906 9595 2903 9595
2901 9598 2898 9595 2901 9589 2899 9584
2909 9581 2907 9576 2906 9575 2903 9579
2898 9578 2896 9573 2898 9571 2895 9565
2890 9564 2887 9557 2882 9556 2883 9551
2882 9550 2863 9582 2864 9586 2855 9601
2856 9606 2837 9639 2844 9639 2845 9636
2848 9636 2847 9631 2859 9611 2861 9614
2856 9622 2859 9626 2866 9626 2864 9631
2867 9634 2871 9631 2891 9631 2893 9629
2890 9623 2893 9618 2888 9617 2890 9612
2888 9609 2891 9604 2896 9603 2899 9607
2903 9603 2906 9607 2911 9606 2909 9601

$$

[Scott747]

Saw a graphic posted on twitter by Channel 13 indicating possibly widespread power outages in Houston. I knew spotty outages were possible but did not think widespread outages were a big concern. Anyone else see this?

A constant inundation of not only rain for days, but Harvey may be close enough to produce sustained tropical force conditions for 3 or 4 days...

There potentially could be massive power outages that exceeds anything in recent memory as the grid breaks down from stress.

[Ounce]

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1031 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

...HURRICANE HARVEY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE
FRIDAY...

.HURRICANE HARVEY...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND ENTER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS
AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-251145-
/O.CON.KCRP.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1031 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 64 KTS OR 74 MPH OR
HIGHER ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING CAN REMAIN IN EFFECT WHEN DANGEROUSLY HIGH
WATER OR A COMBINATION OF DANGEROUSLY HIGH WATER AND
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH WAVES CONTINUE...EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY BE LESS
THAN HURRICANE FORCE.

$$

[txsnowmaker]

Saw a graphic posted on twitter by Channel 13 indicating possibly widespread power outages in Houston. I knew spotty outages were possible but did not think widespread outages were a big concern. Anyone else see this?

Yes. "High" chance for most of Harris County is what was in the graphic he tweeted: https://mobile.twitter.com/TillmanWeath ... 7249140736. The time stamp for that is 6 pm Saturday.

Frank Billingsley was a bit concerned to say the least on Ch. 2's 10 pm newscast. While showing the "American" model rain forecast, he said "If you see on Facebook that Frank Billingsley is in tears, this is why..."

[javakah]

Current GFS run is starting to look much more like the last Euro run, if not even more alarming.