August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[DoctorMu]

Euro 12z has Harvey landing around Corpus still. We're on the dirty side. The storm is massive and tropical force winds will extend > 100 mi from the center. Hurricane - 50 mi?

[BlueJay]

When I look at the cone of uncertainty it appears that Montgomery County is included. However, Montgomery County has not been included in the list for Watches and/or Warnings, yet.

[stormlover]

That's more matagorda

[tireman4]

So, I guess they (NHC) will deal with the track at the 4?

Yes. Watch carefully the 18Z Full Guidance Update. Any further shift up the Coast, we in SE Texas may have a problem more than just a inland rainfall threat.

Not sure what you are hearing on your line ( I know you have pipelines being a pro met than us.. ) that is it "getting stronger and stronger. Recon found flight level winds over 100mph recently" . Have you heard that?

[Ounce]

So, I guess they (NHC) will deal with the track at the 4?

The noon and 1p.m. updates showed the same direction/speed at 335/10mph.

Not sure if that helps or hurt the 6 hour track diff or not.

[DoctorMu]

That's more matagorda

The latitude is a bit above Del Rio - I'd say about Rockport for the center.

Certainly Matagorda on the NE side would see major impacts.

[Andrew]

So, I guess they (NHC) will deal with the track at the 4?

The noon and 1p.m. updates showed the same direction/speed at 335/10mph.

Not sure if that helps or hurt the 6 hour track diff or not.

Latest recon fixes are a little more NW versus NNW which is good news but it still is a little north of the forecast track.

[DoctorMu]

Almost stationary at 72 hours Euro. Maybe a few miles more toward Matagorda.

Not worth parsing. Matagorda to Houston better be prepared for rain, and sustained tropical force wind event.

[djmike]

So, I guess they (NHC) will deal with the track at the 4?

Yes. Watch carefully the 18Z Full Guidance Update. Any further shift up the Coast, we in SE Texas may have a problem more than just a inland rainfall threat.

Not sure what you are hearing on your line ( I know you have pipelines being a pro met than us.. ) that is it "getting stronger and stronger. Recon found flight level winds over 100mph recently" . Have you heard that?

Are we in SETX expected to see another shift northward at 4pm or do you feel the west end of Matagorda Bay seems official? The northward shift at the 10am was very minimal. Is that do to NHC not wanting to make huge adjustments all at once? Thoughts?

[stormlover]

Wow euro run bad

[ajurcat]

Wow euro run bad

Please elaborate.

[stormlover]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=55

[davidiowx]

Wow euro run bad

Please elaborate.

This is Tuesday.....

[ticka1]

Wow euro run bad

Please elaborate.

Landfall corpus - rides the coast never coming onshore and full impact galveston/se texas

[ajurcat]

Thank you. Just concerned and have resigned myself to the fact our bay house in Port Alto will not survive.

[unome]

Not sure what you are hearing on your line ( I know you have pipelines being a pro met than us.. ) that is it "getting stronger and stronger. Recon found flight level winds over 100mph recently" . Have you heard that?

http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... oduct=hdob

http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... duct=sonde

[davidiowx]

What an unbelievable disaster the Euro is. If that verifies.. I can't even begin to think what kind of damage that will cause. Curious to see what the ensembles show.

[don]

Wow! The Euro shows rainfall totals of 30+ inches along the coast...

[Electric Lizard]

So, I guess they (NHC) will deal with the track at the 4?

The noon and 1p.m. updates showed the same direction/speed at 335/10mph.

Not sure if that helps or hurt the 6 hour track diff or not.

Latest recon fixes are a little more NW versus NNW which is good news but it still is a little north of the forecast track.

Best news I've heard all day.

[texbosoxfan]

Can anyone verify how historically accurate the Euro has performed against the ensembles? This scenario is downright frightening.