Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:42 pm
Takes Harvey just south of Corpus as 996mb storm.Rip76 wrote:
I can't see what's posted.
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August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later
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Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:43 pm
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:56 pm
This Euro run is unreal. I can't believe what I see. My brain won't let me believe that.
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:57 pm
I realize it is only one model run but yes ... very, very concerning. The 12z Euro shows rainfall totals over the next 8 days of 12-20" in Harris County alone, much of that falling late Saturday into early next week. My area of the state would get anywhere from 4-8". Pretty much Austin to Carrizo Springs over east to Corpus and up northeast to Houston would get hammered.davidiowx wrote:This Euro run is unreal. I can't believe what I see. My brain won't let me believe that.
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:59 pm
and we still have 3 more days to watch models!!! 2 fulls days for sure!!
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:04 pm
What did the model run show was busy watch the partial eclipse!
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:08 pm
Wow that is an interesting run.
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:17 pm
Good to see the NOAA G-IV Gulfstream added for High Altitude sampling on Wednesday. That should greatly assist the guidance attempting to resolve the future track and that Ridge shifting West and the weakness currently expected across the Coastal Texas Region...
Code: Select all
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT MON 21 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-082
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0000Z A. 23/1200Z
B NOAA9 0609A HARVEY B. AFXXX 0709A HARVEY
C. 22/1730Z C. 23/0900Z
D. NA D. 20.0N 92.0W
E. NA E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1430Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:20 pm
Hmmm. May need to cancel the trip to the deer lease this weekend!
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:21 pm
HR 96 south of TX/MX border.ticka1 wrote:What did the model run show was busy watch the partial eclipse!
HR 120 inland south of Corpus.
HR 144 inland west of Corpus.
HR 168 back south of Corpus.
HR 196 south east of Houston/Galveston.
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:29 pm
Joe Bastardi on Twitter.
"Weather doesnt stop cause of the eclipse..Harvey likely to ramp up as fast as Franklin did once leaving Yucatan. Texas should pay attention."
"Weather doesnt stop cause of the eclipse..Harvey likely to ramp up as fast as Franklin did once leaving Yucatan. Texas should pay attention."
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:37 pm
And that we on this forum will.Rip76 wrote:Joe Bastardi on Twitter.
"Weather doesnt stop cause of the eclipse..Harvey likely to ramp up as fast as Franklin did once leaving Yucatan. Texas should pay attention."
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:44 pm
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 3:42 pm
GFS and GEFS ensemble see potential devastating rain in the Hill Country. Can't titrate mother nature, unfortunately.
HWRF has Harvey striking just south of the Valley.
Eyes peeled.
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 3:43 pm
We are monitoring the flooding threat late this week for south/central Texas as the remnant tropical wave of Harvey is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone... As of today (Monday 8/21/17) EURO and GFS ensembles point to a south Texas solution as of latest runs, but that could change. For Houston we're more concerned about heavy rainfall potential from remnants of Harvey early next week, less so of an acute wind threat... yet.
GFS ENSEMBLE EURO ENSEMBLE -Brooks
p.s. What a wild partial eclipse we all enjoyed!!
GFS ENSEMBLE EURO ENSEMBLE -Brooks
p.s. What a wild partial eclipse we all enjoyed!!
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:16 pm
12Z ECWMF...eeek!
Shows massive rains with peak accumulations of 32 inches over portions of SE/SC TX. A tropical system moving up from the SSE into a frontal zone should be of concern in this state.
Even if the landfall is over NE MX...we have seen many times the real disaster is over TX from inland flooding.
Shows massive rains with peak accumulations of 32 inches over portions of SE/SC TX. A tropical system moving up from the SSE into a frontal zone should be of concern in this state.
Even if the landfall is over NE MX...we have seen many times the real disaster is over TX from inland flooding.
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:40 pm
Hmmmm.
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:46 pm
18z gfs is further n at hr 60.....
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:53 pm
Decent weakness with a more wnw/nw heading. Looks like this run will have a lower Texas coast hit.
Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:59 pm
Off Corpus at hr 96 as a borderline cane and further weakness. Should slide up the coast just inland.Scott747 wrote:Decent weakness with a more wnw/nw heading. Looks like this run will have a lower Texas coast hit.
The trend is now clear...