Ex-Agatha, now 91L

[texoz]

Looking like a player on satellite this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

[msp]

the blowup of convection is impressive, but while its immediate environment is decent for development, shear in the GoM is incredibly hostile right now.

(and i think this may belong in the hurricane subforum)

[srainhoutx]

I'll move this over to Hurricane Central. As msp stated, shear is across the area is a bit too strong for development at this time.

[srainhoutx]

[Paul]

no model support but never hang your hat on present runs I always say....AG still has a either a MLC or might be LLC..hard to tell.....over the hottest part of the basin.....shear is decreasing....FL might have a TD or weak TS knocking on their door tomorrow...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Paul]

no word from the NHC.....not even an invest which is ridiculous since this will be impacting the keys and SFL tomorrow.....

[Paul]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Looks like shear is reducing as you can see the clouds fan out in all direction rather than get blown off.

[Ptarmigan]

no word from the NHC.....not even an invest which is ridiculous since this will be impacting the keys and SFL tomorrow.....

I would put an Invest on this one at the very best. Would not be surprised if it became Alex.

[wxman57]

Nothing there at the surface, and no convergence either. Wind shear increases with each mile it moves north. No model support, lack of convergence and movement into a high-shear environment are reasons not to be too concerned:

[Paul]

clouds tops warmed as the sun went down....your right nothing at the surface just a left over MLC......suspect it will be very windy and rainy over FL this week.

[srainhoutx]

Welcome to Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season 2010...



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM AGATHA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...PARTICULARLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...6...AND
2...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2010 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALEX LISA LEE- SA
BONNIE MATTHEW
COLIN NICOLE NI COLE-
DANIELLE DAN YELL- OTTO
EARL PAULA
FIONA RICHARD RICH- ERD
GASTON SHARY SHA- REE
HERMINE HER MEEN- TOMAS TO MAS-
IGOR E GOR- VIRGINIE VIR JIN- EE
JULIA WALTER
KARL

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER
THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE 1
AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

PRIOR TO 2009...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT COULD BE
ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES IN BETWEEN
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE SPECIAL TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE STATEMENT HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AND WILL NO LONGER BE
ISSUED. INSTEAD...A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE
ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND
AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[srainhoutx]

Perhaps texoz can edit the title to include the Update to Invest 91L...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006011653
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2010, DB, O, 2010060112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912010
AL, 91, 2010053118, , BEST, 0, 185N, 865W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, ,
AL, 91, 2010053118, , BEST, 0, 185N, 865W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010060100, , BEST, 0, 187N, 863W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010060106, , BEST, 0, 189N, 862W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010060112, , BEST, 0, 190N, 860W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[srainhoutx]

[Hardcoreweather]

[Paul]

Sooooo the NHC finally give it a invest tag...guess they waited until I said something

notice the low level eddy heading into the Yuc...interesting....caught up in a low shear environment also.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Paul]

only you ED would come up with a name like that...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL
STORM AGATHA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Edit to add...next...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep912010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006020031
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[biggerbyte]

Sooooo the NHC finally give it a invest tag...guess they waited until I said something

notice the low level eddy heading into the Yuc...interesting....caught up in a low shear environment also.




If it drifts North at all, its in 30 knot shear, not its friend. But we've gone from low level divergence to weak low level convergence nearby. I'm not expecting anything, and since it did not maintain as a TC crossing Central America, if it pulled off the less than 10% chance and did become a named TC, it'd be Alex.

Me, I'd prefer "Zombie Agatha" if it regenerated.

How about Agatha Cromwell???

[wxman57]

Silver bullets are for werewolves. Zombies just need a shot to the head.