JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

[srainhoutx]

Starting to see some changes in the overnight guidance, but caution is advised as there are some differences that could have significant implications on our sensible weather forecast for New Years Eve into New Year's Day.

The ECMWF has flipped to a colder pattern and generates some potential of wintry precipitation as well as the Canadian, while the GFS is a bit drier. There are some hints of lift in the GFS solution leading to a low confidence forecast as 2017 ends and 2018 begins. I see the National Weather Service Offices across Central and SE Texas are mentioning the possibility of light freezing rain/sleet with the possibility of a snow grain or two Sunday night and Monday night. We'll need to monitor trends over the next several days as we head toward the end of the year.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

In the words of Marvin Gaye.... LETS GET IT ON!

[wxman57]

GFS and Euro are in much better agreement for the temps across TX early next week. This is not looking like a snow event, but there could be some sleet mixed in with the rain as precip ends up in the DFW area. I wouldn't absolutely rule out any sleet pellets here in Houston, but I wouldn't forecast it based on overnight model runs. There may be a considerable warm layer aloft here on New Year's. Certainly, I would not expect any snow in the Houston area, so don't get your hopes up for another snow miracle with this front.

As for temps, Euro is now saying around 24F, with the GFS around 26F for Houston. Cold, but nothing really out of the ordinary and certainly not historic or anywhere close to record-breaking. Remember, there is very little of a snow pack to our north, so any Arctic air coming south will modify more than normal for this time of year.

Bottom line for me is that I won't be participating in the Houston Bike Club's New Year's Day bike ride this year. Even though I love cold weather this winter, my bike says it doesn't like to be ridden in sub-freezing temps with a strong north wind.

[BlueJay]

Listen to the bike, wxman57!

[snowman65]

I'm about to throw in the towel on models....I'll just open the front door. If it's cold I'll put on a coat...if not, I won't....lol

[mcheer23]

EURO brings light snow into Houston, tuesday morning.

[DoctorMu]

Euro and GFS have moved towards each other in temperature; Euro might be a little colder. Maybe snowier

Canadian has doubled down on snow and cold. lol

FWIW on the powdery wishcasting end, GFS was too warm and dry for the Dec 7 event.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF certainly trending colder and has a shortwave diving S into Texas late New Year's Day. Near Hard Freeze. criteria for the areas along and North of I-10 with near or at freezing temperatures to the Coast, if this solution holds.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Euro not only caved to the GFS, it dropped it like its hot and went south of the GFS in temp output

[Heat Miser]

When I come to the KHOU forums I read one persons posts with interest and respect. WXman, this guy is usually the most reliable and experienced meteorologist visiting this forum. He's not subject to hyperbole and he certainly doesn't bloviate.
You want our sensible weather, read his thoughts.

[harp]

When I come to the KHOU forums I read one persons posts with interest and respect. WXman, this guy is usually the most reliable and experienced meteorologist visiting this forum. He's not subject to hyperbole and he certainly doesn't bloviate.
You want our sensible weather, read his thoughts.

I believe you just disrespected every other meteorologist on this forum.

[davidiowx]

When I come to the KHOU forums I read one persons posts with interest and respect. WXman, this guy is usually the most reliable and experienced meteorologist visiting this forum. He's not subject to hyperbole and he certainly doesn't bloviate.
You want our sensible weather, read his thoughts.

Thanks for the insight.

[TexasMetBlake]

Euro not only caved to the GFS, it dropped it like its hot and went south of the GFS in temp output

I disagree. The 12z GFS yesterday was showing a low of 14 at IAH and 7 at CXO. The gfs, if anything has joined the warmer Euro with more sensible, believable temperatures. Cold yes but as wxman57 put it, hardly anything record breaking or historical.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Euro not only caved to the GFS, it dropped it like its hot and went south of the GFS in temp output

I disagree. The 12z GFS yesterday was showing a low of 14 at IAH and 7 at CXO. The gfs, if anything has joined the warmer Euro with more sensible, believable temperatures. Cold yes but as wxman57 put it, hardly anything record breaking or historical.

Didn’t see the insane runs yesterday. I was referring to 6z and 12z.

[DoctorMu]

Euro not only caved to the GFS, it dropped it like its hot and went south of the GFS in temp output

I disagree. The 12z GFS yesterday was showing a low of 14 at IAH and 7 at CXO. The gfs, if anything has joined the warmer Euro with more sensible, believable temperatures. Cold yes but as wxman57 put it, hardly anything record breaking or historical.

Didn’t see the insane runs yesterday. I was referring to 6z and 12z.

They were pretty insane. Euro and GFS have converged for now. The question really is how much the sub-zero air pilling into Nebraska is modified. There's a lack of snow cover, which may be partially nullified by clouds during the day and low sun angle. The best chance for a really cold night in central and SE Texas is about now, rather than mid to even late January like up north. Local Mets have a low of 21°F the night of Jan 1-2. No crazy low teens to single digits. Jan 1 will be pretty windy, which with partial cloud cover at night could protect against temps worse than a mild, hard freeze.


How dense is the dome of cold air? - yesterday's insane GFS runs had a 1062 mb high sliding down the Great Plains. Not today.

18z GFS run so far has about the same temps, maybe a little drier solution for the new year...with super cold air capping in northern Oklahoma and Arkansas.

Still, the GFS and Euro had a horrendous time with the Dec 7 event...the Canadian was much closer. It has been an unusual La Nina winter in CLL so far...14 colder than average days, 7 at or above average since Dec 5...and temps will be below to well below normal for the next 7 days, damping the insect population (silver lining on the clouds). Looks like a legit Texas winter - any additional surprises are extra.

[BlueJay]

21F for the nights of Jan 1 and 2 calls for some major work to check on people, tend to plants and protect pipes. Time to prepare!

[DoctorMu]

21F for the nights of Jan 1 and 2 calls for some major work to check on people, tend to plants and protect pipes. Time to prepare!

That's up here in College Station - upper 20s in Houston more likely, as of now.

[don]

The 0z Euro joins the Canadian in showing a winter storm across Southeast Texas fwiw

[srainhoutx]

The 0z Euro joins the Canadian in showing a winter storm across Southeast Texas fwiw

The shortwave is stronger dropping across Texas from the Southern Rockies and a Coastal low/trough develops via the ECMWF. Not all that different than those crazy Canadian solutions. One thing I think we can all agree on, it's going to be cold!

[DoctorMu]

The 0z Euro joins the Canadian in showing a winter storm across Southeast Texas fwiw

Nearly the puzzler of the Dec 7 event. GFS ran drier, fwiw.