FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

[CrashTestDummy]

I'm hoping for zero rain for a month. My yard is a bog and I badly need to spray preemergents and fire ant treatment down. Mosquitoes are going to be God awful unless it gets cold again and the rain stops.

Same here. The water has receded enough that the puddles are now mud pits. The pups no longer come in with wet feet, but muddy feet. We’re washing towels about every third day.

I went to move some plants off the front porch so what’s left of them could get some water and sunlight (front of house faces southeast, and offers a fair amount of cold protection). The cloud of mosquitoes I disturbed doing that was on par with the summertime population. Time to spray, already!!

C’mon, drier weather!!

[DoctorMu]

I'm hoping for zero rain for a month. My yard is a bog and I badly need to spray preemergents and fire ant treatment down. Mosquitoes are going to be God awful unless it gets cold again and the rain stops.

Same here. The water has receded enough that the puddles are now mud pits. The pups no longer come in with wet feet, but muddy feet. We’re washing towels about every third day.

I went to move some plants off the front porch so what’s left of them could get some water and sunlight (front of house faces southeast, and offers a fair amount of cold protection). The cloud of mosquitoes I disturbed doing that was on par with the summertime population. Time to spray, already!!

C’mon, drier weather!!

Surprise boundary of rain moving south dampened my plans to mow, clean up hard. Paying for lack of pre-emergence treatments in the Fall!

[srainhoutx]

After waffling along the front all day in NW Harris County, that front has dropped S and current temperature is 58F with breezy NW winds. Roller Coaster pattern continues.

[srainhoutx]

Active weather week ahead across Texas with a growing threat of heavy training rainfall as cold fronts move across the State, stall along the Coast and move back N as another front dives S late this work week into next weekend. The 'driest' days should be today into tomorrow before rain chances steadily increase Tuesday into at least Thursday. A frontal boundary will approach SE Texas Wednesday with the possibility of training elevated storms behind the front extending from S Central Texas into Arkansas. Waves of low pressure and embedded disturbance along the very noisy sub tropical jet suggest portion of the Hill Country may see 2 to 4 inch rainfall amounts with isolated total nearing 6 inches. Across most of SE Texas, it looks like a general 1 to 3 inches is possible and possibly some higher amounts where training elevated storms may organize generally from Sealy to Brenham to Lake Livingston and points N and E. Will need to keep and eye on mesoscale features as we get into Monday and Tuesday to fine tune the sensible weather forecast. If you have travel plans up to N Texas around Dallas/Fort Worth and into Oklahoma, freezing rain and sleet may be possible Wednesday possibly into Thursday in the cold sector.

[snowman65]

When is this pattern going to stop?? It makes life unfun...

[srainhoutx]

When is this pattern going to stop?? It makes life unfun...

Looks like we are stuck in the current pattern through the end of February. Look for a significant pattern change around the early March timeframe when the pattern looks to swing to a very strong - Arctic Oscillation/-North Atlantic Oscillation that suggests a strong Greenland Blocking regime with colder air possibly returning to locations along and East of the Rockies including Texas. The battle of changing seasons could bring stormy weather well into March. We may even see a freeze or two in March if the pattern change coming delivers several significant cold shots into Texas and Louisiana. Time will tell.

[srainhoutx]

Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:

Threat for heavy rainfall will increase this week.

Weak frontal boundary continues to waffle across the region this morning with dewpoints in the 50’s north of the boundary and in the 60’s south of the boundary over the coastal waters. Lowering surface pressures in the eastern slopes of the Colorado Rockies today will induce this surface boundary near the coast on a northward movement resulting in a very warm and humid air mass spreading across the region tonight into Monday. Sea fog bank that has plagued the coastal areas for nearly a week now…will continue as warm and humid incoming air mass slides over the top of the cold nearshore waters.

Upper air pattern will become increasingly favorable for periods of showers and thunderstorms this week as SW flow aloft combines with a stalling frontal boundary, numerous disturbances aloft, and hefty moisture levels. Modification of the current air mass will begin in earnest on Monday and PWS will rise to near 1.5 inches if not higher by late Tuesday into Wednesday which is approaching maximum values for this time of year. A surface cool front will slowly progress southward into SE TX likely early Wednesday and then slow and stall over the area. SW flow aloft will bring copious moisture from the Pacific along with disturbances aloft that will ride along the front producing numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Main focus will be on the period from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night when the threat for sustained training of thunderstorms appears most possible. Small scale details still need to be worked out…for example where the frontal boundary actually stalls…to determine what areas may be a greatest risk for heavy rainfall. While global models have highest rainfall amounts aimed at the ARKLATX region, the parameters across SE TX by mid week certainly look to support heavy rainfall.

Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches will be possible Tuesday-Thursday with isolated higher amounts under any sustained training of cells. Given grounds are already wet from recent rainfall and vegetation cover remains at a minimum…run-off will be maximized. Additionally, this rain event will be fairly widespread across much of the eastern half of TX and rises on area rivers will be possible…some locations possibly to flood stage.

Hard pressed to push this next front off the coast and not sure any areas will ever get into any of the cooler air. Soupy Gulf air mass looks poised to make a rapid return by late in the week and with that…the dreaded sea fog along the coast and a chance of showers inland.

[Ptarmigan]

Active weather week ahead across Texas with a growing threat of heavy training rainfall as cold fronts move across the State, stall along the Coast and move back N as another front dives S late this work week into next weekend. The 'driest' days should be today into tomorrow before rain chances steadily increase Tuesday into at least Thursday. A frontal boundary will approach SE Texas Wednesday with the possibility of training elevated storms behind the front extending from S Central Texas into Arkansas. Waves of low pressure and embedded disturbance along the very noisy sub tropical jet suggest portion of the Hill Country may see 2 to 4 inch rainfall amounts with isolated total nearing 6 inches. Across most of SE Texas, it looks like a general 1 to 3 inches is possible and possibly some higher amounts where training elevated storms may organize generally from Sealy to Brenham to Lake Livingston and points N and E. Will need to keep and eye on mesoscale features as we get into Monday and Tuesday to fine tune the sensible weather forecast. If you have travel plans up to N Texas around Dallas/Fort Worth and into Oklahoma, freezing rain and sleet may be possible Wednesday possibly into Thursday in the cold sector.

Some areas could really use the rain, especially in Arkansas and Missouri.

There is widespread drought.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

[DoctorMu]

GFS and ensemble seeing the pattern change in March. Just hoping to dry out a little after a soggy February.

[srainhoutx]

Still looking like a good portion of Central/East and NE Texas will see heavy rainfall over the next week. Below are the GFS totals over the next 7 days. I am seeing some trends in the shorter term mesoscale models that there is some question exactly where that frontal boundary may stall Wednesday. Some suggest across a College Station to Lake Livingston line while others indicate the front may push a bit further S toward Metro Houston. We will need to closely monitor trends today and tomorrow. If that front pushes just a bit further S than currently expected, rainfall amount in the Metro Houston may need to be increased. Currently most of SE Texas is in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall expect for our Coastal tier of Counties.

[Texaspirate11]

There is an upside to all this rain - our blue bonnets will be gorgeous this year!

[Cromagnum]

Spring has fully sprung at my house. Everything is in bloom. Is this setting up to be one of those years where everything gets going early and we get a March freeze to reboot everything?

[don]

12z Euro is more aggressive than what its been showing the last few runs, with rainfall amounts approaching 4 inches in portions of Harris County and Montgomery County.

[srainhoutx]

12z Euro is more aggressive than what its been showing the last few runs, with rainfall amounts approaching 4 inches in portions of Harris County and Montgomery County.

The GFS trended a bit wetter as well and the GEFS also is wetter. Anytime we have multiple frontal boundaries stalling, slipping back N and slowly pushing S and stalling along the Coast again and return back N before pushing S for a 3rd time over the next 7 days, forecasting the exact rainfall amounts will be difficult at best. We will need to watch the trends closely Tuesday/Wednesday and Thursday for any unforeseen mesoscale features that can wreak havoc on our sensible weather forecast this week. The Updated WPC QPF charts for the next 7 days has rainfall across our area and most of Texas into Louisiana throughout the period/daily.

[DoctorMu]

We just brought home a new puppy. We should have gotten a duck instead. Miserable rainy week ahead.


It probably won't rain for the entirety of July and August.

[srainhoutx]

Jeff issued an Update yesterday late afternoon and it still looks relevant this morning...

Heavy rainfall possible over SE TX Tuesday evening-Thursday morning.

Best chances for heavy rainfall reaching or exceeding flash flood thresholds will be along an north of a line from College Station to Lake Livingston.

Discussion:
Highly active upper level flow out of the SW will pump copious amounts of Pacific moisture and numerous disturbances across SE TX starting late Tuesday. Upper level ridge over the SE US and deep trough over the western US of nearly equal intensity will result in a prolonged rainfall event from central TX to the OH River Valley for much of this week. A very slow moving frontal boundary will separate spring (temps in the 70’s) to its southeast from winter (temps in the 30’s and 40’s) to its NW over the next several days and this “battle ground” will favor repeated episodes of thunderstorms along the boundary with each disturbance that ejects out of MX and NE along the frontal slope. Origin of incoming air mass is near the SW Caribbean off the eastern coast of Belize and this long belt of moist air is traveling across the SW/W Gulf of Mexico and then arcing across C/SE TX into the mid MS valley. By Tuesday evening surface to 300mb moisture levels over SE TX will be near maximum values for this time of year with PWS nearing 1.6-1.8 inches.

Appears the incoming cold front will stall/slow on Tuesday from near Austin to just N of College Station to Huntsville and then NE into AR. This will support heavy rainfall in a fairly narrow band Tuesday evening in this region as a fairly strong disturbance ejects out of MX with additional thunderstorms developing Tuesday night as strong lift overspreads the very moist air mass over SE TX. Heavy rainfall cores will help to shift the boundary slowly SE even though the flow aloft is parallel to the boundary and there is no significant push of the front. Front should be moving deeper into SE TX and approaching the US 59 corridor Wednesday morning which will shift the axis of showers and thunderstorms to the SE over much of SE TX for Wednesday. While moisture levels remain high, dynamics aloft look to weaken some on Wednesday resulting in less concentration of heavy rainfall…should still see heavy rainfall, but likely not the sustained training that may happen tomorrow evening from College Station to Huntsville. There is certainly some potential in this forecast for things to change…the biggest being the southward movement of the front and where/when it stalls as that location will be “under the gun” for sustained cell training and highest rainfall totals.

Rainfall Totals:
Even though we are within about 24 hours of the start of this event, there is still uncertainty on where the highest rains will fall. Will carry 1-3 inches across the entire region NW of US 59 and 1-2 inches SE of US 59 and go with 3-4 inches NW of a line from College Station to Huntsville. Could see isolated totals of 6-7 inches in that favored area across our NW counties…much of these higher totals will depend on where training cells develop on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Hydro:
This will be a fairly widespread rainfall event on top of nearly saturated soils at a time of year where run-off is typical maximized due to lack of vegetation cover. Appears rainfall totals will likely exceed flash flood guidance across the northern 1/3rd of our area and significant run-off will likely be generated into the Trinity, Navasota, and Brazos basins and possibly the upper San Jacinto Basin north of Conroe on the W Fork and near Cleveland on the E Fork. May get enough rainfall especially in the Trinity and Navasota basins for rises to flood stage and there is potential for flood gate operations at Limestone, Livingston, and Conroe.

As for the creeks and bayous across Harris County, heavy rainfall on Wednesday appears to be sporadic enough to result in rises, but likely not widespread flooding. Will not rule out some rises to near bankfull especially at the normal trouble spots (South Mayde Creek, upper Little Cypress Creek, upper Spring Creek, and on the San Jacinto Basin). Harris County is currently in the divided area between lower totals along the coast and higher totals inland…it could be a set up where NW Harris County could experience 1-3 inches of rainfall and SE Harris less than 1.5 inches. Will need to keep an eye for any sustained training trends on Wednesday into Wednesday night with the frontal boundary likely somewhere between US 59 and the coast as this could help focus more sustained rainfall especially with any disturbance riding NE out of MX.

5 Day Rainfall Totals:

[jasons2k]

The map has shifted since yesterday. For me it went from the 1” band to 2.5”

[DoctorMu]

The map has shifted since yesterday. For me it went from the 1” band to 2.5”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_YlS3SLoz8

[tireman4]

Pw's for Today....Corpus..

[tireman4]

Meanwhile, an everchanging situation in San Angelo....