MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

[srainhoutx]

Anyone care to take a shot at our mid-April sensible weather? I have a Marine Corps friend from N.E. Alabama coming here, or I'm going there, depending on who has the better weather...trying to pre-plan Thanks!

The afternoon Updated CPC Outlook into April looks suggests warm and dry.

[srainhoutx]

Heh...will we turn "colder" again...time will tell...

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 1h1 hour ago
Latest ECMWF Weeklies (daily resolution shown here) dropping the arctic cold hammer to close out March... like a lion.

[Katdaddy]

Isolated showers and a few small thunderstorms have pushed E or dissipated with partly to mostly sunny skies across SE TX this afternoon. Temps are running in the low to mid 80s across much of SE TX currently. Hmmmm that cooler air could be refreshing.

[ticka1]

rain taken out of our forecast for sunday. and no rain for the next 7 days.

[GBinGrimes]

Looking to the west and southwest...wondering if the storms/rain will hold together and push into the Brazos Valley and Houston area. Central Texas into Waco has some action today and this evening. Spring is here.

[unome]

I was hoping for more rain, strong enough to wash away the pollen & oak catkins & keep the grass healthy

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php#page=qpf

[Texaspirate11]

i am so hoping we dont go into drought....i hate drought....

[jasons2k]

Severe Thunderstorm watch just to our north. The watch box clips the top part of Montgomery County, but we are excluded from the county watch list.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0011.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 11
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North-central and East Texas

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms are expected to increase
initially across central Texas in the general vicinity of Interstate
35 this afternoon, and subsequently spread eastward toward East
Texas by evening. Large hail should be the most common hazard, but
locally damaging winds and/or a tornado cannot be ruled out,
particularly as low-level shear increases this evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Fort
Worth TX to 25 miles southeast of Huntsville TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
444 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
North central Burleson County in southeastern Texas...
West central Brazos County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 530 PM CDT.

* At 443 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Tanglewood,
or 10 miles west of Caldwell, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Caldwell, Deanville and Chriesman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

[Katdaddy]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC041-185-313-182245-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0007.180318T2203Z-180318T2245Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
503 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Brazos County in southeastern Texas...
Western Madison County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 502 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest
of Wixon Valley, or 10 miles north of Bryan, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Bryan, Bedias, Kurten, Wixon Valley, Normangee, Iola
and North Zulch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay
away from windows.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service
office in League City.

[Katdaddy]

Mesoscale Discussion 0135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Areas affected...north central through south central and east Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11...

Valid 182230Z - 190030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for isolated supercells capable of producing very
large hail and damaging wind gusts will continue into the evening
from a part of north central into south central and east Texas. WW
11 might need to be extended farther south or possibly a small new
watch east of San Antonio might be needed to account for potential
new development.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening isolated supercells that developed
along the dryline persist primarily from southern portion of north
central TX through south central TX. Visible imagery shows new high
based towers growing over south central TX within the more deeply
mixed regime along and just west of the dryline, as well as along a
confluence zone east of the dryline where the warm sector is
moderately unstable with steep lapse rates. A few of these new
updrafts might also evolve into mature supercells as they interact
with the strongly sheared and moderately unstable warm sector
(MLCAPE 2000 J/kg). Low level hodographs are not particularly large,
but strong effective bulk shear with unidirectional southwesterly
winds increasing to 60 kt through 8 km will support both right and
left movers.

..Dial.. 03/18/2018

[DoctorMu]

Hook echo east of Caldwell moving toward CLL.


Tornado in another cell north of Waco.

[DoctorMu]

Another hook echo east of Lexington. These cells mean business. Softball size hail reported in Caldwell.

[DoctorMu]

Tennis ball sized hail near Madisonville.

[unome]

I guess be careful what I ask for - some tornado warnings earlier north of Waco - please rain, no severe

https://twitter.com/NWStornado

[Katdaddy]

The dry line is exploding across S Central TX this evening and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been extended S to include additional counties in SE TX. I would not be surprised if the watch is extended E to include most of SE TX including the Houston metro area within the next few hours.
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
602 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

TXC015-089-239-339-473-477-481-190400-
/O.EXA.KHGX.SV.A.0011.000000T0000Z-180319T0400Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 11 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING

IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY

JACKSON

IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

AUSTIN COLORADO MONTGOMERY
WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BELLVILLE, BRENHAM, BROOKSHIRE,
COLUMBUS, CONROE, EAGLE LAKE, EDNA, EL CAMPO, HEMPSTEAD, PIERCE,
PRAIRIE VIEW, SEALY, THE WOODLANDS, WEIMAR, WHARTON, AND WILLIS.

[unome]

3" hail, Bryan area (2 miles nnw of Spear) - hope all y'all stay safe tonight

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

(Day) http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... hecked=map

(Night) http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... hecked=map

[DoctorMu]

3" hail, Bryan area (2 miles nnw of Spear) - hope all y'all stay safe tonight

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

(Day) http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... hecked=map

(Night) http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... hecked=map

We had large pea size hail IMBY. It ain't over yet. Hook echo about 10 Mi west of CLL moving this way.

Have been concerned about this severe season. Things are exploding now.

[DoctorMu]

2 and 3 inch hailstones reported in western College Station and Bryan.

[Belmer]

The dry line is exploding across S Central TX this evening and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been extended S to include additional counties in SE TX. I would not be surprised if the watch is extended E to include most of SE TX including the Houston metro area within the next few hours.

Doubtful the watch will be extended anymore eastward towards SETX this evening. These storms are moving into a not so favorable environment for continued strength or new initiation. Much of our area has a stronger CAP and while the lower level is not as dry, the mid and upper levels are much drier. The storms out west (mainly south of I-10) should quickly diminish and die down once the sun sets.