Always a reminder with these sloppy unnamed tropical events, there can be TS conditions and it's all semantics...
Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
602 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
602 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018
...TROPICAL RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...
A tropical wave approaching the Texas coast will continue to
produce bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms lifting
rapidly northwest across coastal waters this evening. Stronger
cells within these bands will be capable of producing wind gusts
up to 40 knots, and intense rainfall rates that reduce visibility
to less than one nautical mile.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Im here in Beaumont and we are being inundated. It has rained hard continuously all day. 2pm the training began and has been going strong for 5 hrs now. The training band shifted slightly west and we are being hammered once again. Road closures are taking place and any low lying areas are now flooded. Concerned about getting to work tomorrow as it looks like this training band extends just about out into the central gulf. Its a pipeline right into us. The road to my work hasbeen closed and if this keeps up throughout the night, work will be calling for employees to remain home for Tuesday. Its been said many many times with the tropical systems. Not one model over the few days progged Beaumont or SwLa for this training effect or this amount of rain in one day. It just proves the these storms and systems do what they want and laugh at computers we use to try and forecasts. They have a mind of their own and donwhat they want.
Be safe out there djmike. Don’t drive in that stuff and certainly don’t put your employees at risk if it continues through the night like it appears to want to do.
davidiowx wrote:Be safe out there djmike. Don’t drive in that stuff and certainly don’t put your employees at risk if it continues through the night like it appears to want to do.
Oh im stayimg put. Will assess im the morning before leaving for work. THank you!
As I said this is a nowcasting phenom. the midlevel organization has become a fly in the ointment. We didn't see much rain yesterday or today. A lot of easterly flux from Beaumont to the Woodlands - they are getting firehosed.
jasons wrote:I’m starting to get worried about the Golden Triangle area. It’s relentless.
I was thinking about that a few hours ago. They might be in trouble out there with the way this has set up.
I don’t recall any models having any heavier rain over there. So far it’s all been out in the Beaumont area.
Models have underestimate the east side monsoonal like flow...not particularly as there is midlevel organization. Not sure why some models insisted that the greatest rain would be near the center. Rarely happens with this kind of system.
Potential for spin up tornadoes in the Golden Triangle.
davidiowx wrote:Be safe out there djmike. Don’t drive in that stuff and certainly don’t put your employees at risk if it continues through the night like it appears to want to do.
It's not going to get better until the sun is down. I'm curious about nocturnal activity. Stay safe.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that
a surface trough associated with a mid- and upper-level low
pressure system has remained stationary near the Texas coast during
the day. This system continues to produce a widespread area of
cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, accompanied
by strong gusty winds, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy
rainfall and flash flooding across portions of southern and
southeastern Texas are likely to continue during the next few days.
For more details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy
rainfall, please see products issued by your local weather office
and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Was thinking the same thing Doctormu! Been model watching for several days now and Beaumont was never a bullseye for heavy training rains. Most I had seen was 2-4 in 5 days. Houston and westward were the hefty rains. Just proves that these systems have a mind of their own and do what they want. Seen this happen too many times which is why we say to stay weather aware and stay tuned the your local nws. We sure didnt see this coming for the beaumont area. Thats for sure! Stay safe everyone! Your turn may be tomorrow! Ps. We are getting so gusty winds with this latest train! Not bad kaybe 30-35mph, but just another reminder to never trust anything tropical. Anything can happen!
Those forecast models do get rain amount correct, but location on the other hand..............
They certainly were on point during harvey, but todays storms and with this system, Im having a hard time believing middle tx coast. May still be correct after all of this pans out, but it still shows nothing like what we got today and still are getting and look to be getting all night long here in a beaumont. Imo.
Just based upon some visual inspection of GOES-16, it sure looks like a new band has been forming on the south side of the system, that's closer in than the one that has been hammering Beaumont. Northern Matagorda (or just north of there) bullseye for tomorrow?
Northwest of I-69 (59) hits a wall of nothing. Hrrr keeps insisting the mass east of Hou comes this way overnight, but things appear to be winding down. Cloud tops are warming except for east of Brownsville in the Gulf. Gfs has been consistent in nothing extreme...
jasons wrote:It may be a good thing, but like a giant dome over Houston area right now.
You aren’t kidding. Appears that another band is going to set up shop down towards the Victoria area. Skipping right over Houston. I’m basing this off of radar watching at the moment.
