July 2018: Weekend/Early Next Week Rain Chances

[Ounce]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
701 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

TXC291-339-373-407-040015-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-180704T0015Z/
Montgomery TX-San Jacinto TX-Liberty TX-Polk TX-
701 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN SAN JACINTO...NORTHWESTERN
LIBERTY AND SOUTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES...

At 701 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 10 miles east of New Waverly to near North Cleveland
to 10 miles southwest of Votaw, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Shepherd, Coldspring, North Cleveland, Tarkington Prairie,
Moss Hill, Romayor and Rye.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
League City.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9462 3049 9473 3029 9466 3022 9467
3028 9526 3047 9531 3063 9514 3052 9502
3052 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 031DEG 18KT 3058 9531 3034 9515 3034 9482

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

[Ounce]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
712 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

TXZ164-178-179-040115-
San Jacinto TX-Polk TX-Trinity TX-
712 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 711 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a large area of
thunderstorms near Alabama-Coushatta Reservation, or 12 miles
southwest of Chester, moving west at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible across much of the
southern portions of Polk County and the eastern portions of San
Jacinto county with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Livingston, Onalaska, Coldspring, Point Blank, Goodrich, Seven Oaks,
Sebastopol, Lake Livingston State Park, Alabama-Coushatta
Reservation, West Livingston, Leggett, Moscow and Segno.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Lake Livingston, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3094 9469 3055 9460 3054 9518 3096 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 083DEG 42KT 3079 9473

$$

[Andrew]

Pretty much all the latest mesoscale models indicate these storms to the east/northeast will dissipate over the next couple hours but redevelopment could occur during the overnight hours/early morning. Looking at radar that hasn't happened yet so may be good news, especially for those east of I-10. Plenty of outflow boundaries available too so we will have to watch as those collide. As for tomorrow I still think the morning will have highest coverage, but that will gradually diminish through the afternoon. I also still think fireworks will be possible.

For the longterm, it is also encouraging to see the chance of rain will stay in the forecast for the remainder of the week. This will help improve drought conditions over southern and eastern Texas in particular.

[jasons2k]

Right on cue - gusting out and falling apart within walking distance...

It’s raining leaves though...

[Ounce]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
727 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

TXC071-291-040100-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-180704T0100Z/
Chambers TX-Liberty TX-
727 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR CHAMBERS AND SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTIES...

At 727 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Hardin to Liberty to near Devers to 7 miles
northwest of High Island, moving southwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Liberty, Dayton, Beach City, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac, Old
River-Winfree, Ames, Daisetta, Hardin, Kenefick, Cove, Devers, Dayton
Lakes, Stowell, Oak Island, Hankamer, Moss Hill and Wallisville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 2966 9436 2960 9472 2966 9470 2975 9469
2975 9471 2974 9471 2979 9473 2979 9474
2976 9482 2972 9486 3021 9507 3029 9466
3011 9460 3011 9454
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 064DEG 21KT 3020 9476 3007 9481 2996 9459 2966
9446

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

[Belmer]

It is quite concerning to see the HRRR show run after run with areas in Brazoria and Galveston counties getting 10-12 inches of rain overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Thankfully there won't be much of a morning commute due to the Holiday... but that will cause serious flooding no matter how dry the grounds are. Definitely monitoring that closely...

[Rip76]

Wow, that’s concerning if that verifies.

[Andrew]

Radar showing 50-60kts going just east of Baytown into the Port.

[jasons2k]

There's one now that's 59.3.

[Poltracker]

Very strong gusts in Deer Park for last 20 minutes. Very active lightening strikes as well. No rain yet.

[bikerack]

Bah! I just speed-mowed in Kingwood to beat the storm and then came in to see the storms fizzling.

At least there was a cool breeze.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
838 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

GALVESTON TX-HARRIS TX-
838 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT.

* AT 838 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN PASADENA, NORTHEASTERN LEAGUE CITY, LA PORTE, DEER
PARK, SEABROOK, WEBSTER, KEMAH, CLEAR LAKE, EASTERN SOUTH BELT /
ELLINGTON, NASSAU BAY, TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE, EL LAGO, SHOREACRES,
CLEAR LAKE SHORES, MORGAN'S POINT, THE JOHNSON SPACE CENTER,
ELLINGTON FIELD AND BACLIFF.

[Cromagnum]

Gonna miss everything south and east.

[Rip76]

At a party in Pearland.
Just skirting is.

[Katdaddy]

Strong storms moving across SE Harris, NE Brazoria, and N Galveston County.

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
845 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1145 PM CDT.

* At 844 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Up to
three inches of rain have already fallen in the past hour. Flash
flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Southeastern Pasadena, La Porte, northeastern Clear Lake, Taylor
Lake Village, Shoreacres and The Johnson Space Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

[srainhoutx]

Nothing but...up here in NW Harris County.

[Katdaddy]

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
East central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 945 PM CDT.

* At 901 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Tiki Island,
or near Hitchcock, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Galveston Island West End, Texas City, Hitchcock, Bayou Vista,
Jamaica Beach, Tiki Island, Galveston State Park, Schlitterbahn,
Scholes Field, Moody Gardens, Offatts Bayou and San Luis Pass.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0398...CORRECTION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
818 AM EDT WED JUL 04 2018

CORRECTION TO HOURLY RAIN TOTALS TO CONFORM WITH GRAPHIC

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX & SOUTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 041214Z - 041814Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TX. HOURLY RAIN TOTALS TO 3" WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 6"+ ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTHWEST OF GALVESTON TX. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
BROADENING NEAR AND TO ITS EAST WITHIN AN AREA OF CONVERGENT 850
HPA FLOW, WHICH HAS ALSO LED TO AN EXPANSION OF 500-1000 ML/MU
CAPE IN SOUTHEAST TX, DESPITE RECENT RAP GUIDANCE INDICATING
TRENDS TO THE CONTRARY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE
THE MAIN 850 HPA WIND CIRCULATION NEAR LUFKIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE 2-2.5" PER RECENT GPS DATA. WHILE INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS
CYCLONIC OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15-25 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES,
THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE AREA 30 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO ITS WEST
WITHIN AN AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY FROM ARANSAS PASS TX
NORTHWARD. THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND IS LESS THAN 10 KTS, WHICH
HAS LED TO RELATIVELY STATIONARY HEAVY RAIN CORES THUS FAR.

THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 6-9" OF RAIN
THROUGH 18Z. THE GUIDANCE TRACKS THE LOW TOWARDS AUSTIN OVER THE
NEXT SIX HOURS, AND ISSUES ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE 850 HPA CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM A HEAVY RAIN PERSPECTIVE ARE MINIMAL CELL MOVEMENT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING, CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS. GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, HOURLY RAIN TOTALS TO 3" ARE
EXPECTED. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY PROBLEMATIC WITHIN URBAN AREAS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

[srainhoutx]

Starting to see a long band of increasing showers/storms with rainfall rates increasing to near 1.5 per half hour located near NE Harris County/Liberty County line on down the I-69 Corridor to near Brazoria/Lake Jackson/Freeport/Angleton. A weak surface low is located SE of Galveston and S of Sabine Pass with an 850mb vort located near Liberty County. Rainfall, so very heavy should increase as the morning wears on and slowly increase in areal coverage.