AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

[DoctorMu]

The afternoon guidance suggests we are likely to settle into a typical and potentially unsettled pattern regime as the weekend arrives. A return flow off the Gulf with embedded disturbances dropping into our Region combined with increasing moisture values nearing 2 inches continuing into next week may provide some relief with clouds and increasing shower/storm chances. The afternoon Updated Day 6 to 10 Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center reflect those possibilities. I also don't particularly like seeing Mid August 1983 showing up as an analog with a deep Western trough ahead.

Yeah - just hope it stays disorganized out there in the Gulf! $3B 1983 dollars in damage, 22 lives.

[jasons2k]

We have some advection 10-15 mph NNE winds up here. Our dew points are about 6-7°F lower as well. Maybe the breeze will reach you all soon.

It has certainly helped.
Latest Air Quality Numbers:
Spring (77386): 31, Good
Houston: 140, Unhealthy for sensitive groups
Clear Lake: 79, Moderate

Tampa: 1 (not a typo = one), Good

[TexasBreeze]

Forget mid August it is stormy out in the Gulf now! It is alright as long as the storminess stays disorganized.

[jasons2k]

Forget mid August it is stormy out in the Gulf now! It is alright as long as the storminess stays disorganized.

There is a small pocket of low shear in the GOM over the trough axis. It is August. Something to watch...

[Ptarmigan]

The afternoon guidance suggests we are likely to settle into a typical and potentially unsettled pattern regime as the weekend arrives. A return flow off the Gulf with embedded disturbances dropping into our Region combined with increasing moisture values nearing 2 inches continuing into next week may provide some relief with clouds and increasing shower/storm chances. The afternoon Updated Day 6 to 10 Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center reflect those possibilities. I also don't particularly like seeing Mid August 1983 showing up as an analog with a deep Western trough ahead.

Yeah - just hope it stays disorganized out there in the Gulf! $3B 1983 dollars in damage, 22 lives.

Alicia

[BlueJay]

I'm enjoying these "cooler" August days. It's a nice treat.

[srainhoutx]

Starting to see a trend in the computer guidance suggesting multiple waves of deep tropical moisture surging out of the SW Gulf/Bay of Campeche as a parade od EPAC tropical disturbances organize as the monsoonal trough lifts across Southern Mexico and Guatemala/Honduras. Moisture values are indicated to be near or above 2 inches this weekend with a deeper surge heading our way later next week.

There are also some indications of a boundary attempting to stall near us around the 9th or so with even a deeper surge of 2.3+ PW's moving toward Texas. Enjoy the low humidity as it looks to return to our typical hot/humid pattern with diurnal showers/storms beginning this weekend continuing into at least mid next week...if not longer.

[srainhoutx]

Today's 8 to 14 Day Outlook from the CPC suggests a rather unsettled pattern may continue into mid August. Also in the longer range Day 11+ analogs, yet another noteworthy potential pattern possibility shows up with a late August 1961 analog date. The Hurricane that began my interest at a young age of everything weather began organizing several days later in the SW Caribbean Sea the first week of September 1961.

[DoctorMu]

GFS and Ensemble have much of the unsettled weather east of I-45 over the next two weeks. The Canadian a bit more action deep into Texas, including the Hill country, as CMC throws another cold front our way. The GFS appears to flip the trough to the west about Aug 17.

We'll see. Could be a change of pace for August.

[CrashTestDummy]

So, can I wish-cast a dry Sunday morning?!? We really need a break in the predicted 50% chance of rain for a couple of hours before noon.

[srainhoutx]

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 1h1 hour ago
Models are keying in on a heavy rain event for eastern Texas next week; this event plus any more rain events could shift the Texas pattern cooler compared to normal this August. Something to watch.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated CPC Day 6 to 10/8 to 14 and even the Experimental Week 3 and Week 4 Outlooks suggest above normal rainfall for our Region and below normal temperatures. It appears we may have a trend brewing...

[DoctorMu]

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 1h1 hour ago
Models are keying in on a heavy rain event for eastern Texas next week; this event plus any more rain events could shift the Texas pattern cooler compared to normal this August. Something to watch.

Sold! I'll take it.

[FunNestle]

We generally don't see much rain in August in CLL without something tropical until the last week of the month.

Yeah, mid August or so is when the high pressure is far north enough that any variations in its positioning (from all those upper level lows riding the jet stream) can't induce subsidence to Texas. It's on account of this active continent.

[Texaspirate11]

Ah I'm dreaming of an early FALL

[srainhoutx]

The pattern changes are beginning folks...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
824 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2018

NORTHERN LIBERTY-INLAND HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-
INLAND JACKSON-INLAND MATAGORDA-INLAND BRAZORIA-INLAND GALVESTON-
SOUTHERN LIBERTY-COASTAL HARRIS-COASTAL JACKSON-COASTAL MATAGORDA-
COASTAL BRAZORIA-COASTAL GALVESTON-MATAGORDA ISLANDS-
BRAZORIA ISLANDS-GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LIBERTY, CLEVELAND, DAYTON, HOUSTON,
WINNIE, MONT BELVIEU, ANAHUAC, STOWELL, OLD RIVER-WINFREE,
EL CAMPO, WHARTON, MISSOURI CITY, MISSION BEND, SUGAR LAND,
ROSENBERG, FIRST COLONY, PECAN GROVE, EDNA, GANADO, BAY CITY,
PEARLAND, ALVIN, ANGLETON, LEAGUE CITY, FRIENDSWOOD, DEVERS,
PASADENA, BAYTOWN, PALACIOS, LAKE JACKSON, FREEPORT, CLUTE,
TEXAS CITY, DICKINSON, LA MARQUE, SURFSIDE BEACH, AND GALVESTON
824 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2018

...FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE TODAY...

A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS IS IN PLACE TODAY AND SHORT LIVED
FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATER SPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO DETECT WITH RADAR.
IF A FUNNEL CLOUD FORMS, IT MAY BRIEFLY EXTEND TO THE GROUND AND
BECOME A TORNADO. ALTHOUGH THESE FEATURES ARE WEAK, THEY ARE STILL
DANGEROUS AND ONE SHOULD KEEP A LENGTHY DISTANCE FROM THEM IF
POSSIBLE. KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

[Rip76]

A few waterspouts were seen in the Texas City area this morning.

[jasons2k]

Nothing here so far. A couple of lines and cells moved this way and then fell apart. Maybe more later on.. .

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
219 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2018

GRIMES TX-WALLER TX-HARRIS TX-
219 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT.

* AT 218 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE PAST THIRTY
MINUTES.

* FLOODING WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
GRIMES...NORTHEASTERN WALLER AND NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS, COUNTRY ROADS, FARMLAND, AND OTHER LOW LYING
SPOTS.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED, OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

[mckinne63]

Nothing here. It was looking cloudy, we saw some rain on the radar in the area as we were doing errands, but nothing but a few sprinkles on the windshield.