AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

[jeff.harrington]

Hot and dry or rainy and muggy, either way I still feel excited and loving this month.

[Katdaddy]

A few light showers SE of Houston along Galveston Bay this morning. Another mostly sunny and hot day ahead for SE TX.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

NWS has issued a Heat Advisory for the southern and central counties of SE TX until 900pm this evening.

Combination of afternoon temperatures nearing 100 and dewpoints not mixing out much will result heat index values of 106-110 between about 200pm and 600pm. Interestingly some sort of weak boundary has moved SSW across the SE portions of the area early this morning that resulted in a few showers and thunderstorms developing around Galveston Bay. This feature may produce a few additional storms this afternoon as it moves down the coast toward Matagorda Bay.

Upper air pattern will be changing over the next 48 hours with the center of the upper level ridge that is currently over TX moving ENE into the SE US. The shifting of this feature slightly northward will allow a deep easterly flow to develop this weekend into all of next week along the southern flank of the ridge. This will allow tropical moisture and weak tropical waves to move across the area. Will begin to raise rain chances and lower afternoon temperatures and Sunday and continue with a 30-50% rain chance through each day of next week for afternoon storms along the seabreeze front. With an upper level pattern in place that is currently being forecast it will be important to monitor any tropical waves that could potentially move into the Gulf of Mexico during this time.

Tropics:
A tropical wave will be moving off the coast of Africa over the next day and then westward across the tropical Atlantic. Forecast models are not showing much development with this wave, but it is interesting to note that both the GFS and ECMWF models show this feature around Cuba or south FL in about 10 days where the wave axis sharpens some. Just something to keep an eye on over the next week.

Large scale global models continue to show an increasingly favorable pattern starting in about 7 days across much of the Atlantic basin as the sinking and dusty air of late from Africa decreases and is replaced with large scale rising air which should promote much thunderstorms activity over the tropics. A majority of the tropical storms and hurricanes that form in the Atlantic basin develop after August 20th, so we are still early in the season and this should serve as a reminder to remained prepared during this time of year.

[mcheer23]

I will be in either Honolulu or Maui providing updates and videos.

[Ounce]

I will be in either Honolulu or Maui providing updates and videos.

Good luck.

Should be an interesting landing on the runway.

[stormlover]

CMC, GFS, Euro, Navy all show something towards florida straits,ridge is stout also

[Belmer]

CMC, GFS, Euro, Navy all show something towards florida straits,ridge is stout also

Agree, I am seeing a lot of signs that the ridge out east, off of Florida, looks to really strengthen by late next week, which would seem to steer anything coming through the Caribbean or southern Bahamas to basically make a straight entrance into the Gulf of Mexico. As Jeff alluded to, less dust coming off of Africa = less sinking air. Central and eastern Atlantic looks like it is going to get really juicy in the next 7-10 days.

Despite the tropics possibly ticking up in activity, our pattern looks to be changing as well in the medium and long range with a buckle in the jet stream as troughs start digging in the central and eastern US and deep moisture from the the southern Caribbean and even in the Pacific off the coast of South America riding up through southern Mexico, possibly lifting into the BoC.

Signs of September are definitely showing!

[stormlover]

yep belmer!!! not trying to scare anyone but could be lke a rita type track

[sambucol]

With the ridge in place, is there a good chance that IF the blob forms and enters the GOM, would it most likely Texas bound?

[stormlover]

yeah good chance but long ways out.

[sambucol]

yeah good chance but long ways out.

Thanks. That's what I thought.

[Belmer]

yep belmer!!! not trying to scare anyone but could be lke a rita type track

Well that wasn't my intention to scare anyone by what I said. I see your point on the track of how those storms played out, but I see nothing on the magnitude (as far as strength) coming into the GoM. All I am seeing right now is an increase in moisture entering the eastern GoM beginning late next week into the weekend. Any tropical moisture that does make its way over Florida has a good chance of making its way across the Gulf and just increasing rain chances for our area... but I see no threat to TX when it comes to anything tropical right now.

[Katdaddy]

A very peaceful weather evening across SE TX with a calm Atlantic Basin. This is the time of year when I reflect on past tropical cyclones that have made landfall along the Upper and Middle TX Coast. Just a few to share this evening:

1 year since Hurricane Harvey
10 years since Hurricane IKE
17 years since TS Allison
35 years since Hurricane Alicia
39 years since TS Claudette
48 years since Hurricane Celia
57 years since Hurricane Carla
75 years since the 1943 “Surprise Hurricane” during WWII
103 years since the 1915 Hurricane
118 years since the Galveston 1900 Hurricane

TS Claudette 1979 was a localized extreme flooding event that I thought I would never see again in my lifetime…..only 11 at the time.

TS Claudette: Alvin, Texas, was deluged by 43 inches of rain in 24 hours from July 24-25, 1979, setting an all-time record 24-hour rainfall for the U.S. Still awaiting Hawaii’s 49.69” in 24 hours to be official and break the Alvin, TX record for the US.

Fast forward to 2018 and now 49 year’s old we had Harvey. TS Claudette’s lazy brother who drifted across SE TX and SW LA dumping epic rainfall totals over multiple days. That late Saturday and early Sunday morning a year ago had the same extreme rainfall rates I remember from Claudette in Pearland 1979. Mom and Dad’s home did not flood in Claudette, Allison, or Harvey. Lets hope the rest of the 2018 Hurricane Season remains quiet but this is the time to be ready.

[Rip76]

I’m guessing no rain today either.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, no rain here. Tomorrow is another air quality alert day. I believe this will be a whole week now of air quality alert days. Yuck, just yuck.

[srainhoutx]

Right on cue, the models as well as satellite imagery show a couple of upper lows (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs) meandering E, one South of Louisiana and another nearing the Florida Straights beneath the underbelly of the Upper Ridge that has kept us dry and our atmosphere capped for the most part this past week. The Upper Heat Ridge is moving further away and Gulf moisture has returned with PW's around 2 inches and convective temperatures in the low to mid 90's. Isolated showers and storms should gradually increase to a more scattered chance as the work week progresses. Slight higher rainfall chance may need to be increased for late week into next weekend as an inverted trough is showing up in a general weakness over Texas during the Labor Holiday Weekend.

[unome]

the increased precip chances in our forecast this week are like music to my ears

[Rip76]

What is this that has been falling out of the sky for 20min?

[Katdaddy]

Scattered showers offshore this morning will translate inland this afternoon which will be the theme through the week.

From this morning’s Houston-Galveston Area Forecast discussion regarding the extended period:

The extended guidance has been indicating a weakness sliding across the southern Gulf with radically different levels of organization Sunday through Wednesday next week. Keep in mind that often the extended guidance waffles around spurious solutions - is it possible yes is it something to get worried about not yet - but aware of yes.

[srainhoutx]

This morning we have the first signs that Fall is fast approaching. Winter Weather Advisories are hoisted across the Northern Rockies in Montana and Wyoming. These are the first of the upcoming Meteorological Fall that starts September 1st. Not too much longer and we'll be tracking that first real push of Fall air slipping into Texas...