jasons wrote:This morning: rain to my south
This afternoon: rain to my north
Story of my Texas life.
We’ve had 6.5” here in the past ten days including 2.5” today.
We've had about 1.1 in (have to check the rain gauge again when I get home) over the past week. Fingers crossed for a light rain tomorrow and clearing for yell practice and the game Saturday. All I need is enough rain to keep the sprinklers off!
It will probably monsoon instead, as Gordon remnants stagger this way..
I thought (according to the NWS) that all impacts from Gordon were to remain "well east and north of the area" and today the northern forecast area was to remain mostly sunny with "markedly drier air." Guess not...
Gordon seems to have finished off the death ridge. Instability and a weak front will focus more showers in the upcoming days. Then maybe some refreshing NW flow next week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
351 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have dotted the area today,
especially across the higher precipitable water and better lift
locations partly associated with the southern fringes of the
circulation around the remnants of Gordon. So far, the best
coverage has been across a large portion of our southwest counties
where midafternoon temperatures are in the 70s. Some locally
heavy rainfall has occurred (greater than two inches) with the
stronger and slower moving activity in and around the Texas City
area and also across parts of northern Wharton County. Still
expecting to see periods of showers and thunderstorms over the
next several days with good lift and deep moisture remaining in
place. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. A weak front
moving into the area over the weekend could become a focus for
better storm coverage. As next week progresses, expect to see some
changes as models are trending toward bringing in some drier air
into the area from the northwest. Forecast will generally have
lower rain chances northwest and higher rain chances with some
potential for locally heavy rainfall closer to the coast as some
deeper moisture moves into the area off the Gulf. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
through the next week or so. Generally light to moderate onshore
flow and low seas are expected, with gusty winds and locally higher
seas possible in and around stronger storms.
We are still looking for increasing rain chances over the weekend into early next week. A stalled frontal boundary across N Central Texas will begin slowly sliding SE and should be near College Station Saturday night for the big game in Aggie Land and across Metro Houston Sunday morning. Deep tropical moisture and frontal boundaries in September can lead to forecast challenges regarding rainfall amounts and mesoscale feature that cannot be determined beyond 6 hours, so pay attention to the weather over the weekend. If heavy thunderstorms do organize, copious amounts of very heavy rainfall can occur over those isolated areas where mesoscale features have the highest impact. Stay Weather Aware over the weekend folks.
The attachment 09062018 Sunday 12Z 99fndfd_init_2018090700.gif is no longer available
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
648 AM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Big picture forecast has not really changed, but emergence of fog
at LBX requires an early deviation. Also, radar indicates showers
are developing a bit more slowly than yesterday, so have tweaked
the onset of showers and storms a bit to account for that and with
CAM guidance that is also staying a bit drier at first. There are
some hints that MVFR ceilings may emerge, at least in the
northwest, towards the very end of the forecast period. Given the
timing and uncertainty involved, have introduced some lower
clouds, but not significant enough for a ceiling at this time.
Luchs
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 424 AM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018/...
.DISCUSSION...
The forecast over the next several days hinges on really 3
factors. First there should be lower 500mb heights over much of
Texas for the next several days. Second deep moisture should
remain over SE Texas through at least the middle of next week.
Lastly a frontal boundary should push into the area over the
weekend providing additional lift. These should all lead to a
fairly wet weather pattern for the next several days.
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
As with last night, showers are beginning to crop up over the
Gulf waters along with a few nearer the coastline around Matagorda
Bay very late tonight. However, coverage so far tonight is a
little behind where we were 24 hours ago. Still, given yesterday`s
performance outdoing my expectations, and precipitable water and
water vapor imagery showing a lack of the pocket of subsident
drier air we had yesterday, we should largely manage to see a
repeat performance today with scattered to numerous showers and
storms pushing inland as the day wears on. A lingering surface
trough along our northern border will provide an additional focus
for afternoon development well inland. This may be a fairly subtle
enhancement, though, as the pressure gradient is rather flat -
seen in the very light winds forecast again today.
Temperature-wise, we`ll begin again with temperatures near or above
normal to start the day, and end up in the upper 80s near the coast
to the lower 90s well inland. Those that miss out on rain, or see
rain at a time that doesn`t interrupt the diurnal pattern too much
(either too early or particularly too late) will be able to get a
bit warmer, while those where the timing of storms cuts temps down
such that they can`t recover before the sun starts dipping will be a
bit cooler.
Luchs
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
This evening should feel pretty familiar to start, as we`ll begin to
lose the typical diurnal convection as the sun dips to the horizon.
But, look for a reinvigorated surface low to develop over Arkansas
tonight out of the remnants of Gordon as an upper trough digs down
into the region. Along with this low a weak cold front will develop,
increasing rain chances in the far north in the nascent frontal
zone. While winds won`t be terribly strong, the onshore flow should
pick up at least a little, helping feed the area with moist, less
dense air to ride up over the surface feature.
Onshore flow should be expected to continue over the waters and the
bulk of the area. But, well inland closer to the stalled/slowly
moving frontal zone, we should expect winds to veer a little more
southwesterly.
Temperatures on Saturday should return back to about the same spot
from the coast inland to something along a Columbus to Tomball to
Cleveland line, but as you continue to look inland from there, the
greater sky cover and rain potential will likely ensure that places
aren`t going to reach out of the 80s. In a more typical cold front
setup, the aforementioned veering of winds to the SW often warms
things up pretty well and caps the column, delaying the onset of
rain some. Given the weakness of these winds, though, and the lack
of any sort of upstream EML to advect in...I`m gonna put my money on
the frontal upsloping this time.
Luchs
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...
On the synoptic scale there really is not too much to discuss in
the forecast. Heights at 500mb stay lower around 584dm to 588dm
with a trough axis on Sunday from the Midwest back SW towards SE
Texas. This weak troughing remains in place through mid week. By
Thursday both the GFS and Canadian models develop a closed upper
low over the Mississippi River Valley. This low then retrogrades
back over Texas by Friday. The ECMWF does not close off a low but
still has lower heights and none of the models build an upper
level ridge back over the area. Strongest large scale lift remains
on Sunday/Monday as the trough axis lifts northeast and another
short wave trough moves across on Tuesday.
Mesoscale features are tougher to diagnose this far out but there
does appear to be some type of surface frontal boundary that
moves into the area Saturday into Sunday. This does provide some
lift but the temperature gradient with it is rather weak. It will
largely depend upon convection and cold pool generation for it to
move into the region anyway. With the synoptic upper level
support, the GFS does bring this front pretty close to the coast
early next week with some drier air moving into the area
Wednesday. By drier air, we mean precipitable water values drop
from a 2-2.3 inch range down to 1.5-1.8 inch range. Given the
orientation of the front with the upper level flow, it is hard to
think any type of front will make any progress let alone drier air
work into SE Texas. So holding onto higher moisture and
instability likely around 1000-2000 J/kg with near moist adiabatic
lapse rates...the forecast basically sticks with some type of
rain chances going forward for the next several days. The weekend
through about Tuesday looks to be the wettest time frame with
higher PoPs but still possible to get scattered showers and storms
midweek through the end of next week.
General impacts we can expect from this forecast is basically
locally heavy rainfall like we have seen the last few days.
Isolated areas of higher rainfall will be possible on the order of
3-4 inches. This could lead to street and nuisance flooding in
low lying areas or poor drainage areas. Most areas will pick up a
quick inch of rain and even that may be quite isolated. Given
lapse rates and weak instability the severe weather threat will be
low.
Overpeck
.MARINE...
Overall marine weather conditions along the Upper Texas Coast will
be rather benign the next several days. Winds will be light and
variable at times with a frontal boundary stalling inland over the
weekend. With no firmly established pressure gradient over the NW
Gulf of Mexico, winds will continue to be light. This will support
seas generally around 2 feet or less.
Overpeck
.FIRE WEATHER...
No serious fire weather concerns as humidity will be far above
critical values, winds are expected to be light, and fuels are
near or above normal moisture values. The biggest thing to pay
attention to would be the lack of winds for any prescribed burns
that require some kind of minimum wind speed. This may be
difficult to obtain with the continued weak pressure gradient.
I know that you've always got to be careful of what you wish for, but we could sure use copious amounts of rain at my place in southwestern WA County. The last real rain was July 4 and the month of August just dedicated us. Still nothing but light drizzle out of this event. Bring it on!
Electric Lizard wrote:I know that you've always got to be careful of what you wish for, but we could sure use copious amounts of rain at my place in southwestern WA County. The last real rain was July 4 and the month of August just dedicated us. Still nothing but light drizzle out of this event. Bring it on!
Hopefully everyone will at least get an inch or two out of this pattern. Visible Imagery looks promising...
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Electric Lizard wrote:I know that you've always got to be careful of what you wish for, but we could sure use copious amounts of rain at my place in southwestern WA County. The last real rain was July 4 and the month of August just dedicated us. Still nothing but light drizzle out of this event. Bring it on!
Hopefully everyone will at least get an inch or two out of this pattern. Visible Imagery looks promising...
Gordon's tropical moisture is being fed into the frontal system...like The Borg from TNG assimilating Gordon into the Collective.
Looks like I can't wait until Saturday to mow the lawn.
For those following the Tropics, be sure to check out our Hurricane Central Section for Updates on all the activity across the Atlantic that is NOT a Gulf threat at this time...
Let's hope its right! That very long range GFS run shield us from a Hurricane bearing down on the Gulf Coast...
Want some rain, but no Hurricanes please! Ike did a number on our house, thankfully we survived Harvey with the house intact, but not without being on watch 24/7.
Here is an article about the trees dying in the area. It seems like a number of them or suffering from either effects from the drought, or too much water:
jasons wrote:Here is an article about the trees dying in the area. It seems like a number of them or suffering from either effects from the drought, or too much water:
we have 1 oak tree on our lot & it was awful, builder had selected one of the worst specimens & didn't properly plant it and remove the root wrapping - we finally hired a certified arborist & it is now one of the healthiest on our block - they are worth every penny. the only down side is the plethora of acorns it produces are like mowing over marbles. something that I would recommend is to keep the popular "weed & feed" well away from any trees or shrubs & don't ever use the mulch-volcano, it harms the trunk& invites disease
Still looking like a wet and possibly stormy day/evening ahead with a lot of outdoor activities planned across he Hill Country and College Station. The WPC surface charts suggest a slow moving frontal boundary will make an approach to Coastal SE Texas, but pull up stationary somewhere along the I-10 Corridor tomorrow. That stalled boundary should be a focal point for some heavy rainfall and the WPC has placed a slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall across our Region. Unfortunately, there just doesn't seem to be much of a change in pattern ahead for the next 7 days to bring any drier air. The big weather story this week looks to be potential Major Hurricane Florence making its approach along the East Coast.
You can follow the Updated Information for Florence and Helene as well as future Isaac that is looking more likely to be a Caribbean Cruiser in out Hurricane Central section of our Board. Should any tropical systems pose a threat to the Gulf, we will move the Topic to the Main Weather Forum page to make it easier to find.
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jasons wrote:Here is an article about the trees dying in the area. It seems like a number of them or suffering from either effects from the drought, or too much water:
Yeah, the cypress trees don't handle well the extreme cold (for this area) and drought and flood, all within the same year.
My neighbor's elm trees are now officially in shock. Mows the yard twice a week (too short for St. Augustine - what is it with Aggies and mowing StAug so short? - it's not Bermuda!), but doesn't add the extra water, beyond what the sprinklers provide. An extra 10 gal/week for every 10 feet in height. I learned some bitter lessons in 2011, 2012, 2013 losing red oaks and later a Mexican Oak (ironically too much rain in May)
Besides extra watering, with our soil (gray clay), water (alkaline) and sparse summer rain, I douse our trees with sulfur, gypsum, Miracle Gro, occasional fertilizer, Medina vitamins, and SuperThrive on a regular basis (today is feeding day). Our live oak was a twig when we moved in...it's starting to really grow and fill out.
Lawn & Gardening in Texas - it's not for the faint of heart!!
