SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

[Cromagnum]

WHOSE calling it a bust? We've had good rains down here by the Bay

So far I am south of Pearland. I out Fertilizer down Wednesday and it hasn't rained a drop anywhere near here.

[srainhoutx]

Vort max spinning near Austin is firing off storms out ahead of the frontal boundary draped along a line from Pleasanton to Bastrop to Dallas. We briefly had some sunshine here in NW Harris County and things destabilized quickly. Will need to monitor for some quick 1 to 2 per hour rainfall rates with the heavier storms. The frontal boundary is not moving that much since early this morning. I see a cluster of storms is developing in our SW Zone so hopefully you folks near El Campo/Wharton can get some of the rainfall you've been missing out on.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like a healthy line coming, but it's gonna split and miss me completely to the north and south

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
222 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2018

INLAND HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-
222 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND AND
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 221 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PECAN GROVE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUGAR LAND, NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI CITY, STAFFORD, BELLAIRE, WEST
UNIVERSITY PLACE, RICHMOND, GALENA PARK, JERSEY VILLAGE, HUNTERS
CREEK VILLAGE, BUNKER HILL VILLAGE, PINEY POINT VILLAGE, DOWNTOWN
HOUSTON, GREENWAY / UPPER KIRBY AREA, SPRING BRANCH NORTH, SECOND
WARD, GREATER HEIGHTS, MISSION BEND, NEARTOWN / MONTROSE, PECAN GROVE
AND MEMORIAL PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM, AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

[srainhoutx]

Near 1.5 inches with that initial 'skinny line' in NW Harris County with a larger area of convection approaching...

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
241 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2018

FORT BEND TX-HARRIS TX-
241 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT.

* AT 237 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES IS LIKELY. THIS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
WESTERN ROSENBERG, KATY, RICHMOND, TOMBALL, JERSEY VILLAGE, PECAN
GROVE, ELDRIDGE / WEST OAKS, ADDICKS PARK TEN, MISSION BEND, SPRING
BRANCH WEST, SPRING, FULSHEAR, BEASLEY, ORCHARD, CINCO RANCH,
WILLOWBROOK, HOOKS AIRPORT, SPLASHTOWN, CUMINGS AND CYPRESS.

[unome]

two lines of rain-dumping storms rolled through & the air still feels like a soaked sponge

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[snowman65]

Over the next 12 days our lowest daily percentage is 60%. That's unacceptable!!! Already been raining for DAYS. Someone has to do something about it!!!

[LightningBolt]

Lots of rain in Liberty County today with more approaching. We are drenched!

[Cpv17]

So far we’ve picked up a few sprinkles here. The rain earlier that formed near me and pushed up towards Houston was just about 10 miles to my east, but we managed to get some sprinkles from it lol

[don]

May want to get used to the rain as indications are that we may have a wet El Nino this winter...

[Cpv17]

The rain has just been a few miles to the east of me for the past two days and yet there’s another batch of storms that just fired up a few miles east of me yet again.

[Katdaddy]

A narrow line of thunderstorms moving across Brazoria County

[Katdaddy]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1139 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2018

TXZ213-237-238-337-338-230515-
Inland Brazoria TX-Inland Galveston TX-Coastal Galveston TX-
Inland Harris TX-Coastal Brazoria TX-
1139 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2018

...Strong Storms Moving THrough Brazoria County...

At 1138 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Liverpool, or 7 miles southwest of Alvin, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 35 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pearland, southwestern League City, Friendswood, Alvin, Dickinson,
Santa Fe, Manvel, Iowa Colony, Hillcrest, LSPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTiverpool, Bonney and Chocolate Bayou.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

[unome]

another soggy morning

• 

• Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 887
  NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
  337 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018
  
  Areas affected... Eastern TX... Southwest AR... Northwest LA
  
  Concerning... Heavy rainfall... Flash flooding possible
  
  Valid 230736Z - 231336Z
  
  Summary... Moderate to heavy showers are expected to continue across eastern Texas and parts of adjacent states through 8:30 am local time ahead of a quasi-stationary front. This additional rainfall will only exacerbate ongoing flooding issues over northeast Texas.
  
  Discussion... Regional Doppler radar imagery scattered intense showers and thunderstorms associated with a slow moving surface low over northeast Texas. There have been some reports of greater than 2 inches of rainfall observed since midnight. Ascent is being aided by a nearby 500mb shortwave, converging 850mb flow, and modest right entrance upper jet dynamics.
  
  The anomalously high PW values ahead of the slow moving cold front across eastern Texas is indicative of a tropical airmass with deep warm cloud layers and efficient rainfall processes. PW values on the order of 2.2 to 2.4 inches remain over this region ahead of a stalled frontal boundary as reflected in recent GPS data and RAP model analysis.
  
  An aggravating factor in the flooding potential is the very low flash flood guidance values over the northern portion of the MPD area in northeast Texas owing to the heavy rainfall over the past 2 days. The latest suite of high res guidance now has a strong signal for narrow swaths of 2 to 4 inch rainfall maxima extending from the greater Houston area to west of Shreveport, which is indicative of training convective activity. Since the highest QPF maxima are likely over areas with higher flash flood guidance south of Interstate 20, flash flooding is considered possible.
  
  D. Hamrick
  
  ATTN... WFO... FWD... HGX...LCH... OUN... SHV... TSA...
  
  ATTN... RFC... ABRFC... LMRFC... WGRFC...

• 

[unome]

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/
https://twitter.com/NWSHouston
https://mobile.weather.gov/
https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
418 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis indicates a broad surface low situated across east Texas early this morning. North-south oriented band of shra/tstms associated with a weak frontal boundary is gradually pushing eastward and should mostly be in LCH's CWA in the next couple hours. Drier llvl airmass will be filtering in behind this boundary today which should limit much in the way of precip after mid morning. Remnants of the front should begin the process of washing out on Monday followed by a return of onshore winds and deeper Gulf moisture Tue & Wed. Rain chances will increase once again as this occurs. Models are again showing slightly deeper troughiness and a cold front moving into the state toward midweek. Overall support for a push thru southeast Texas still doesn't appear all that favorable at this time. That being said, it's not uncommon for guidance to have a tough time with our first couple fropas and will have run-to-run consistency issues. It does appear wet wx will persist ahead of it with healthy moisture levels remaining pooled over the region. Expect fairly good chances for shra/tstms each day (mainly diurnal type) from midweek onward. 47

&&

.MARINE...
With the upper pattern becoming a bit more favorable... we should see the weak Pacific cold front push into the western half of our marine waters this morning. The light W/NW winds in its wake will likely be brief (through this afternoon)... with onshore winds returning across the region tonight as the boundary washes out. The mostly light/moderate S/SE winds to prevail through much of the upcoming week. While there was some long-range models that hinted at the possible passage of another cold front around mid-week, these latest runs are now not as confident with this as the upper ridge appears to hold across the region. However, with the onshore flow persisting, a series of upper level disturbances along with deepening tropical moisture could lead to the development unsettled weather for much of the week. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
The line of SHRA/TSRA associated with the weak Pacific cold front is continuing to move east out of the CWA this morning. In its wake, we will be seeing a mix of MVFR/IFR CIGS through mid morning. VFR conditions expected by this afternoon. With the wet grounds, light winds and mostly clear skies tonight, will be expecting the development of MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS tonight through early Mon morning. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 70 88 72 90 / 10 20 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 86 72 89 73 90 / 20 10 20 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 88 78 88 / 30 10 20 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX... NONE.
GM... NONE.

&&

$$

[CrashTestDummy]

1.3” overnight in our corner of the swamp. Still have standing water in the yard. Pups are going to have fun this morning.

[Texaspirate11]

Was so awesome to fall asleep with that late night storm that swept thru....added another inch to the ol' rain gauge.
My flowers are singing with happy....

[Katdaddy]

Today will be another dry day across much of SE TX with a few isolated showers along the immediate coast. Increasing moisture will result in the return of showers and thunderstorms beginning tomorrow through the rest of the week. Another weak cool front will front push into N portions of SE TX this week. The tropics remain active but no threat for the GOM.

[Cpv17]

Another 1-2” appear pretty likely this coming week! That’s fine with me cuz all I got the past few days was .15” while some of you others got over 5”. Hopefully this time I’ll get at least an inch.