SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

[Belmer]

other GFS model has strong tropical storm headed towards Sw/LA

Are you talking about the 12z run? That shows a TD, maybe a weak TS impacting SETX next Friday.

[stormlover]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=192

[Belmer]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=192

Ah. I miss the key words there, 'other GFS model'.

[stormlover]

Euro has it basically riding the coastline heading towards tx.........going to be a interesting weekend I think lots of model watching

[Texaspirate11]

Been sitting in the dark after storm moved thru,, power finally came on

https://www.khou.com/article/traffic/do ... -588746012

[DoctorMu]

other GFS model has strong tropical storm headed towards Sw/LA

12z Euro has a broad lower entering Louisiana and turning westward into Texas at the end of the week - a rain event.


We'll see.

[DoctorMu]

other GFS model has strong tropical storm headed towards Sw/LA

Are you talking about the 12z run? That shows a TD, maybe a weak TS impacting SETX next Friday.

Agrees with latest Euro.

[Scott747]

Models can turn on a dime but it's getting hard to ignore the consistency of the gfs.

Each run gets a little more defined with tonight's 0z run showing a developing storm moving into the corpus area next Friday.

Euro has trended further east more towards the ngom for any potential system. Will be interesting if it starts showing something similar to the gfs on tonight's run.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight 00Z NCEP (American) and ECMWF Ensembles began slowly increasing odds of a potential for Tropical Cyclone Genesis South of Louisiana in the 120 to 240 hour range to around 40%.

Early morning visible imagery suggests wind shear is still impacting the tropical wave with only scattered storms with no organization expected anytime soon.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Deep easterly flow will maintain elevated rain chances for the next several days as tropical moisture continues to flow into the region.

High pressure over the NE US will continue to produce an E/ESE flow across the Gulf of Mexico and into the TX coast with weak tropical waves moving east to west in this flow and making landfall along the TX coast. One such wave moved over the area yesterday enhancing rain chances and the next wave will approach this weekend. Will go with 30-40% rain coverage along the seabreeze today and Friday and then bump that up to 60-70% for Sunday and Monday as the next wave approaches from the ESE. Highest rain coverage on Sunday will likely east of I-45 and along the coast and then across much of the area on Monday.

Forecast for next week will become highly dependent on what if any sort of tropical system attempts to develop over the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropics:

90L:
A strong tropical wave has moved off the western coast of Africa showing good signs of development. Surface observations and satellite images indicated that a surface low pressure center has formed with this wave and deep convection has formed near and around the surface low. It is likely this wave will be upgraded to a tropical depression later today and may threaten the Cape Verde Islands over the next 48 hours as it moves generally W to WNW. Longer range global models show a large scale mid Atlantic trough developing near 45W which should be deep enough to turn the system toward the NNW and N over the open central Atlantic.

Caribbean Tropical Wave:
A westward moving tropical wave currently extends from the NE Caribbean Sea to the northern coast of south America. Thunderstorm activity has increased with this wave, but strong upper level WSW winds over the top of the wave axis is producing wind shear and preventing development. This is the wave axis that both the GFS and ECMWF models are suggesting may have some potential to develop in the Gulf of Mexico next week. The ECMWF shows a weak low forming just east of SE FL and then brings that feature WNW toward SE LA by the middle to end of next week. The GFS has development more over the central Gulf of Mexico and tracks the feature more westward toward the middle TX coast by the end of next week. Both the GFS and ECWMF ensembles also show support for some sort of development in the northern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. While agreement on development of a tropical feature has increased slightly over yesterday it is still uncertain as to where and when development may occur which would have a large impact on the potential track of any Gulf system. For now just be aware that some sort of tropical system may develop in the Gulf next week and check the forecast at least daily through the holiday weekend.

[Rip76]

For some reason I can't find all of my old GOM Satellite links.

Does anyone have a few good one's they could post?
Also, are there any good mobile links for the phone as well?

Thanks in advance.

[srainhoutx]

For some reason I can't find all of my old GOM Satellite links.

Does anyone have a few good one's they could post?
Also, are there any good mobile links for the phone as well?

Thanks in advance.

GOES 16 is all that is really available anymore.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-0

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

[Texaspirate11]

NHC will initiate advisories at 11 am EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.

IMHO It'll be a curveball out to the fishies

[srainhoutx]

Floater now available for the area of disturbed weather over PR and Hispaniola...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[Texaspirate11]

GOT THE attention of the NHC

A tropical wave located over the north-central Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending
from Hispaniola northeastward across the northeastern Caribbean Sea
and adjacent Atlantic waters. This activity is forecast to spread
westward to west-northwestward, but strong upper-level winds are
expected to prevent any significant development of this system
during the next several days. Environmental conditions could become
more conducive when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico
early next week. Regardless of development, this system could
produce enhanced rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and Florida into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[brooksgarner]

Here's my briefing on PTC#6 and the tropical wave.
link --> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XU5igTw ... e=youtu.be

[jasons2k]

Don't forget about the Gulf. Nam is consistent in spinning-up the disturbed weather out there over the weekend. May be nothing...but may be something. But I find it curious we are having some breezy weather out of the E/ENE today. Unusual for August unless we have either had a frontal passage (which we haven't) or there is low pressure forming out in the Gulf....

[stormlover]

Euro run is not good for texas, maybe 3-4 straight days of rain..

[Cromagnum]

Euro run is not good for texas, maybe 3-4 straight days of rain..

We need it.

[stormlover]

Don't need 4 straight days of hard rain unless im looking at it wrong. Jason come in lol??