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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:05 pm
by srainhoutx
Reconnaissance Assets starting to get a little thin...
Code: Select all
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0200 PM EDT TUE 11 SEPTEMBER 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-110
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE FLORENCE
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 13/0000Z A. 12/2330Z,13/0530Z
B. NOAA9 1206A FLORENCE B. AFXXX 1306A FLORENCE
C. 12/1730Z C. 12/2130Z
D. NA D. 31.1N 73.1W
E. NA E. 12/2300Z TO 13/0530Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 73
A. 13/1130Z,1430Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 1406A FLORENCE
C. 13/1000Z
D. 32.6N 75.2W
E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 12/2330Z,13/0530Z A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA2 0209A ISAAC B. NOAA2 0309A ISAAC
C. 12/2130Z C. 13/1000Z
D. 14.7N 57.1W D. 15.1N 59.9W
E. 12/2300Z TO 13/0530Z E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
3. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 12/1800Z A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 12/1645Z C. 13/0945Z
D. 25.0N 91.0W D. 25.5N 92.5W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2230Z E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING G. RESOURCES PERMITTING
4. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES ON FLORENCE WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS
A THREAT.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON ISAAC.
C. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON GULF SUSPECT SYSTEM IF IT
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT, RESOURCES PERMITTING.
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:14 pm
by srainhoutx
The ECMWF is again a bit more aggressive developing 95L.
The attachment 09112018 12Z 72 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_4.png is no longer available
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:20 pm
by mcheer23
srainhoutx wrote:The ECMWF is again a bit more aggressive developing 95L.
09112018 12Z 48 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_3.png
09112018 12Z 72 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_4.png
09112018 12Z 96 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_5.png
Bit further north as well......
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:21 pm
by srainhoutx
HGX cancels Flash Flood Watch for our SE Texas Region.
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:23 pm
by srainhoutx
mcheer23 wrote:srainhoutx wrote:The ECMWF is again a bit more aggressive developing 95L.
Bit further north as well......
Yeah. Pressure falls are beginning across the Yucatan Channel and just N of the Yucatan Peninsula. That is usually indicative of a broad area of low pressure attempting to develop along the Northern end of the Wave Axis.
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:24 pm
by tireman4
Jeff Lindner Update
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:36 pm
by Scott747
That first recon plan/fix is about 300 miles due e of Brownsville.
Extrapolating what I'm guessing will be the expected track put a baffin bay to matagorda bay landfall of whatever comes of 95l.
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:37 pm
by texoz
Come Friday morning, we could have 5 named active systems in the Atlantic/GOM.
If that happens, I believe that's a first?
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:38 pm
by Texaspirate11
Scott747 wrote:That first recon plan/fix is about 300 miles due e of Brownsville.
Extrapolating what I'm guessing will be the expected track put a baffin bay to matagorda bay landfall of whatever comes of 95l.
Thats all this area needs after Harvey
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:44 pm
by djmike
So what's you guys thoughts on this going or turning further up the coast affecting the IAH/BPT area?
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:49 pm
by mcheer23
djmike wrote:So what's you guys thoughts on this going or turning further up the coast affecting the IAH/BPT area?
A Landfall between CC and Matagorda would put SETX on the dirty side.
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:54 pm
by don
With a lopsided system like this seems it may be, you don't have to be near the center to get strong effects from the storm if you're on the dirty side,in fact sometimes the worse of the storm is displaced to the north and east of the center of circulation.
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:01 pm
by jasons2k
From Jeff at 12:49:
Satellite and surface observations in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea is indicating that the tropical wave is becoming better organized and a tropical cyclone is likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday or Friday.
NHC has raised the chances for formation to 70% over the next 5 days.
Observations also indicate a large area of gusty winds…to near tropical storm force…across the Yucatan Channel extending into the SE Gulf of Mexico.
This system is moving toward the WNW/NW and this motion is expected to continue bringing the feature toward the TX coast Friday and Saturday. A USAF “hurricane hunter” aircraft is now planned to investigate the system tomorrow to determine if a tropical depression or storm has formed or is forming.
Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system and have plans and kits ready to be enacted later this week as it is becoming increasingly likely that some sort of tropical system will be impacting the TX coast late this week and this weekend.
While it is still too early to be certain of any specific impacts…chances for rainfall…some heavy…will likely increase as the large mass of tropical moisture associated with this system moves toward the TX coast by late this week.
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:02 pm
by jasons2k
mcheer23 wrote:djmike wrote:So what's you guys thoughts on this going or turning further up the coast affecting the IAH/BPT area?
A Landfall between CC and Matagorda would put SETX on the dirty side.
Do you think it will landfall north of Corpus, instead of around Baffin Bay?
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:11 pm
by djmike
don wrote:With a lopsided system like this seems it may be, you don't have to be near the center to get strong effects from the storm if you're on the dirty side,in fact sometimes the worse of the storm is displaced to the north and east of the center of circulation.
That's what I was thinking, but a local met here in BPT is saying us and even Hou will be just out of its rain bands... I still feel it will make a slightly northern shift once we get more specific data from the flight tomorrow/Thursday...
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:16 pm
by ticka1
Does 95L have a LLC?
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:16 pm
by don
jasons wrote:mcheer23 wrote:djmike wrote:So what's you guys thoughts on this going or turning further up the coast affecting the IAH/BPT area?
A Landfall between CC and Matagorda would put SETX on the dirty side.
Do you think it will landfall north of Corpus, instead of around Baffin Bay?
The 12z Euro did move north from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas fwiw
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:22 pm
by stormlover
yeah lets see what ensembles say
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:36 pm
by unome
the graphic looks like it was issued later than the text - both can be found, with other options, here:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/forecas ... ed_gom.php
GMZ001-120300-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS...A surface trough over the far western Caribbean will move across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and into the Gulf of Mexico Wed. The trough will move into the western gulf Thu, and west of the area Sat.
the full size:
Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L
Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:40 pm
by djmike
That looks too far south IMO.