Wx Infinity Forums

jasons wrote:Euro model showing almost 30" of rain to our SW, and a large area of 20"+. Looks eerily similar to Harvey.

yikes! what timeframe is this looking to happen?

Aggie Mom wrote:New to posting, not to the board. Been lurking for as long as I can remember, just never brave enough to post. I do have a question for those of you with better memories than me...which model was the one that got Harvey right? And in situations like this possible tropical system, would that model be considered "reliable"? Thanks for any input!

Typically we look first the GFS (American model) and the ECMWF (European model) and the individual ensemble members regard track forecast and intensity. Honestly, most models miss the intensity forecasts which is the biggest unknown and challenge for the National Hurricane Center and the Forecasters. Both the GFS and the Euro did well within 5 days regarding tracking of Harvey. It was the Rapid Intensification the occurred that most of the reliable models missed until NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters flew those many missions providing a lot of data in all the levels of the atmosphere that were input for those computer models that led to the response of a fast strengthening Major Hurricane Harvey. Rainfall wise, we began to see in the 4 to5 days prior to landfall that we likely were going to experience a very significant and possibly Catastrophic Flood Event across our Region. Glad you finally registered and joined our discussions. We hope everyone feels welcome to do the same!

Do you really think we are going to see catastrophic flood this time or are you referring to Harvey's flooding event

Karen wrote:Do you really think we are going to see catastrophic flood this time or are you referring to Harvey's flooding event

This far out, and especially without the storm really even being defined yet, such predictions are highly inaccurate in a large number of ways. More just take it as 'We should keep an eye on this' at the moment.

The GFS shows the system remaining weak and n/e of here with more of the same daytime storm activity going on. Nowhere close to thr EC model. CMC shows the system as a ts moving into our area from the se then moving out, not stalling for days. Still early in the game.

Gfs is the outlier here, ukmet still showing mid Texas coast And so is icon

2 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook is out. No real changes from earlier according to NHC Senior Forecaster Avila. Still a 40% chance of development in the Gulf over the next 5 days. That said possible RECON tasking has set for Labor Day afternoon, if needed by the Air Force 53rd Hurricane Hunters and NOAA P-3...

https://youtu.be/6sx-oJuMmisHere’s a tech breakdown video I just made. https://youtu.be/6sx-oJuMmis

12z Euro is again showing very high rainfall totals across Southeast Texas...

don wrote:12z Euro is again showing very high rainfall totals across Southeast Texas...

can someone post it here - please?

The 12z Euro basically shows 10-20” across SETX and close to 30” just east of San Antonio.

Let's be very cautious tossing out the model precipitation totals at this point. Once we see the disturbance organize and begin to develop, then we can look at the rainfall potential. A lot of folks are still suffering and rebuilding from the Harvey Flood. Let's be sensitive to our neighbors still suffering.

don wrote:12z Euro is again showing very high rainfall totals across Southeast Texas...

EURO
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1200z.html

EURO has 30 inches of rain between now to September 11. The other forecast models do not forecast such high rainfall totals.

The Euro run last night was not an off run. This afternoons run is very similar and agreed on from other models. Model war watch in effect between GFS and Euro again. Getting trapped in weak steering flows can easily happen, but getting pulled up and away is possible too...

enjoy the holiday weekend and stop by KHOU forums for updates and follow NWS and NHC for official forecast.

Even with the ECMWF showing back to back runs with a similar track I still remain skeptical of how fast development occurs, and how fast the steering flow breaks down over the central plains. Currently there are two ULLs off the coast of Florida and over the Bahamas. Both of these are forecasted to track west over the next couple of days and continue to shear the wave. It likely won't be until the wave is over the central gulf that the positioning of these lows may allow for a better divergent flow and ventilation. Even the ECMWF backed off on intensity a good bit on the latest run to a moderate TS. As we have seen many times though (including last year with Harvey) it only takes 24 hours in the gulf with favorable conditions for storms to quickly intensify.

After landfall the other question and major model disagreement stems from how fast steering breaks down. The ECMWF is quick in clearing out the trough over the central/northern plains and has enough mid level ridging to push the storm south and west. The GFS on the other hand is a lot more aggressive with mid level steering as the storm rotates around the western edge of ridging and eventually gets picked up by the trough. This will be the key factor for which solution validates.

So as it stands right now I tend to favor the GFS a little more on its solution, but I do have to disclose I don't have access to the high resolution ECMWF so can't comment on the mesoscale differences between the GFS and ECMWF. By the end of the weekend I believe we will see model consensus increase.

EURO ensembles can be found here.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

I talked to 3 pros met they said throw the gfs out it’s been clueless

The afternoon Update WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the next 7 Days is out. Some slight differences include more rainfall over SE Texas and inland versus this morning as well as the cluster of 10 inch amounts along the Louisiana Coast shifting a bit further West toward the Upper Texas Coast. It is also noteworthy the Updated WPC surface charts do show a bend back to the W and SW with the surface low after landfall in SE Louisiana going a bit N of I-10 and then dropping back to just over Houston before dissipating to a trough over Central Texas on Day 7.

srainhoutx wrote:The afternoon Update WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the next 7 Days is out. Some slight differences include more rainfall over SE Texas and inland versus this morning as well as the cluster of 10 inch amounts along the Louisiana Coast shifting a bit further West toward the Upper Texas Coast. It is also noteworthy the Updated WPC surface charts do show a bend back to the W and SW with the surface low after landfall in SE Louisiana going a bit N of I-10 and then dropping back to just over Houston before dissipating to a trough over Central Texas on Day 7.

Just saw this. They seem to be more in line with the EURO and UKMET. Which is what I'm leaning very slightly toward.
Still very early in the game. I suspect we will have Invest 91l declared very soon.