https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents
11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 24.6°N 57.7°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
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663
WTNT41 KNHC 100248
TCDAT1
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018
Florence's satellite appearance has continued to improve quite
markedly since the previous advisory. An eye was evident in GOES-16
high-resolution infrared imagery and other channels between
2300-0000 UTC, but it became cloud covered immediately thereafter
due to a strong burst of deep convection in the southern and eastern
eyewall where cloud tops colder than -80C and an abundance of
lightning activity was observed. Since that time, the CDO has
expanded and become more circular, outflow has increased and become
more symmetrical, and an eye has begun to re-appear. The initial
intensity has been increased to 80 kt for this advisory based on a
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of T4.5/77 kt from SAB and NHC
objective intensity estimates ranging from 77 kt to 87 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 280/06 kt. Once again, there is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or synoptic
reasoning. The models appear to be getting better dialed in on both
the location and strength of the developing blocking ridge in the
vicinity of Bermuda during the next 4 days as the mid-latitude flow
amplifies across the CONUS and the northwestern Atlantic. In fact,
the global models are now in very good agreement on forecasting
Florence's upper-level mass outflow being deposited to the north and
east of the hurricane, which will act to further strengthen the
blocking ridge and help to drive the hurricane northwestward toward
the southeastern U.S. coastal region. The new NHC model guidance is
even more tightly packed about the previous forecast track, with
less than a 90 n mi cross-track spread at 72 h and less than 120 n
mi spread at 96 h, just prior to expected landfall. Therefore, the
new official advisory track is essentially just an update and
extension of the previous forecast, and lies between the nearly
juxtaposed HCCA and FSSE corrected consensus track models.
Now that Florence has developed an inner-core ring of deep
convection, which has insulated the eye from intrusions of dry air,
rapid intensification appears likely to begin soon and continue for
the next 36 hours or so due to the expected very low vertical wind
shear conditions, dual outflow jet pattern that will be developing,
and very warm SSTs of 29-29.5 deg C beneath the hurricane. The most
favorable combination of the aforementioned factors will occur in
about 48 h, and that's when Florence is likely to achieve its
maximum intensity. After 72 hours, the wind shear is expected to
increase to around 10-15 kt from the south or southwest, and the
dual outflow pattern is forecast to change to only a single poleward
outflow pattern. This slight degradation in the upper-level
environment, along with slightly cooler SSTs, is expected to result
in a gradual weakening of the powerful cyclone. However, Florence is
still forecast to be near category-4 strength when the dangerous
hurricane makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is an
average of the intensity forecast from the corrected consensus
models HCCA and FSSE, with the latter explicitly forecasting a peak
intensity of 134 kt in 72 hours. It is also worth noting that the
model guidance is also significantly increasing the size of
Florence's wind field over the next few days, and the official
forecast reflects this trend.
The NOAA G-IV jet will conduct another synoptic surveillance
mission early Monday morning in support of the 1200 UTC model
cycle, and these flights will continue through Tuesday. In addition,
upper-air stations across portions of the central and eastern U.S.
are conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches to
collect extra data for the numerical models. Hopefully these data
will help improve the track and intensity forecasts.
Key Messages:
1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
any advice given by local officials.
2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 24.6N 57.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 24.9N 59.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 25.6N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 31.2N 73.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 34.0N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 35.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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296
FONT11 KNHC 100248
PWSAT1
HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC MON SEP 10 2018
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20)
BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26)
WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20)
CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 16(34)
PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 13(32)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 25(45)
CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
CHARLOTTESVIL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 24(52)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17)
RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 36(70)
DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30)
DANVILLE VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 19(54)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19)
NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 19(55)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19)
NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 19(56)
OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19)
OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 19(67)
ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 10(29)
ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 36(70)
GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30)
GREENSBORO NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 33(81)
RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 28(48)
RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 54(54) 28(82)
ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 23(50)
ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 63(75) 7(82)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 6(44)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 59(60) 25(85)
FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 27(59)
FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 19(35)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 29(57)
CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22)
CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 70(73) 15(88)
CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 16(63)
CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 13(39)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 74(87) 6(93)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 9(66)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 9(43)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 76(87) 6(93)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 10(68)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 10(46)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 74(77) 13(90)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 51(51) 17(68)
SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 15(48)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 72(74) 15(89)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) 19(68)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 16(45)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 76(83) 7(90)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 55(56) 13(69)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 12(48)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 25(72)
FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 19(39)
FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 23(50)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19)
COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 64(66) 17(83)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 19(57)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 13(35)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 68(71) 10(81)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 13(51)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 11(32)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 49(50) 18(68)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 14(38)
GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 16(50)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 14(36)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 16(31)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART