December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

[davidiowx]

Getting some pretty intense lightning strikes here in Richmond. Windy and moderate rain, but bright lightning strikes and loud thunder. It's crazy when the lightning lights up the house when it is daylight outside!

[Andrew]

Models are already doing a poor job with the storms initializing over West Texas. May be underestimating the dynamics of the storm but there is a lot of junk convection over Central and Southeast Texas that could stabilize things somewhat. Will have to wait and see how things evolve over the next couple hours.

[unome]

lit up all over TX

https://atmo.tamu.edu/ciams/lma/network_loop.html
http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightnin ... php?map=31

& a line building across west TX

[Cpv17]

Doesn’t really look like much for my area around Wharton and El Campo this time around. As usual, most of the fun stuff looks to be north of me.

[unome]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1078019292778639360
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe risk is expected to continue to increase this afternoon
across west central and central Texas, spreading eastward with time
across central and east Texas into southern Oklahoma. Large hail
will be possible in Texas this afternoon, with damaging winds and a
few tornadoes the main threats this evening and overnight.

...Discussion...
Aside from minor line adjustments, no changes appear to be needed at
this time, with respect to the forecast for the evolving convective
scenario over the southern Plains. A band of frontal convection has
developed over the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin, with
limited/accompanying severe risk. Other convection continues to
evolve from central Texas into central Oklahoma, which may also pose
some severe risk. As the front progresses across the southern
Plains through tonight, severe potential with the accompanying
convective band is evident.

..Goss.. 12/26/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018/

...Southern Plains through tonight...
A deep midlevel trough over NM and northern Mexico will eject
northeastward over central TX and OK by tonight. Associated surface
cyclogenesis will occur today across the southern High Plains, with
the cyclone expected to develop northeastward across KS tonight.
Strengthening southerly low-level flow is transporting low-level
moisture northward across the southern Plains this morning, with
boundary-layer dewpoints in mid-upper 50s across northwest TX and
upper 60s in south TX. The moisture has contributed to widespread
cloud cover, with elevated thunderstorms ongoing from central TX
into western OK within the warm advection regime. Given the
presence of midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km and MUCAPE near 1000
J/kg, some hail may occur with these elevated storms the next few
hours.

The primary severe threat will begin early this afternoon along the
southern fringe of the warm advection zone in central TX, where
storms could be rooted at the surface. Effective SRH > 300 m2/s2
and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for supercells
with the potential to produce a couple of tornadoes, in addition to
isolated large hail/damaging winds. Simultaneously, the strong band
of ascent along the Pacific cold front will encounter the west edge
of the moist sector early this afternoon across west central TX.
Moderate buoyancy and strong vertical shear will favor relatively
rapid development of a line of storms along the front, with the
potential for damaging winds and isolated large hail with the
stronger embedded cells. An isolated tornado will also be possible.

The frontal line of storms should consolidate this evening from
central TX into OK, and then move eastward through the overnight
hours. Damaging winds and tornadoes with embedded circulations will
be possible. The greater threat will be in TX with buoyancy rooted
at the surface with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s. The
northern extent of the threat is more uncertain into OK, though
forecast soundings show some potential for moist neutral profiles
into southern and central OK just ahead of the squall line.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2011Z (2:11PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Cromagnum]

All quiet besides mist

[MontgomeryCoWx]

All quiet besides mist

Main event is in West a central Texas. Our main event is during the late evening.

[Andrew]

Just an FYI the ECMWF is sniffing some of that colder air towards the January 2-3rd time frame. It currently shows some mix precipitation over Central Texas into Southeast Texas. Something to keep an eye on.

[LightningBolt]

Such a gray, blustery, sideways rain kind of day. So glad that we didn't get this weather yesterday!

[unome]

GOES-16 Meso-1 & Meso-2 are both over TX as of now

GOES-17 also has Meso-2 over western part

I am happy to not be traveling

adding: a one-stop GOES-16 & 17 satellite shop, thanks to Tim Schmit/GOESguy for tweeting the link:

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/goesdata.html

[srainhoutx]

Tornado Watch hoisted for San Antonio and Austin in S Central Texas. Sure looks like a long night ahead.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Just an FYI the ECMWF is sniffing some of that colder air towards the January 2-3rd time frame. It currently shows some mix precipitation over Central Texas into Southeast Texas. Something to keep an eye on.

Of course, I’ll be in florida. It will probably dump ice and snow here when I’m gone.

[davidiowx]

We lost power about 10 min ago.. according to centerpoint should be on around 8:30. The wind (a few trees in the way) has to be the culprit

[srainhoutx]

Winds have been near tropical storm force at times today across our Region. It has certainly created problems for air travel throughout the afternoon and I saw a report of a couple of injuries on a flight inbound to Austin earlier this evening. That squall line to our West means business this evening. The dynamics associated with this potent Winter Storm are impressive. Stay weather aware tonight folks.

[Cpv17]

Winds have been near tropical storm force at times today across our Region. It has certainly created problems for air travel throughout the afternoon and I saw a report of a couple of injuries on a flight inbound to Austin earlier this evening. That squall line to our West means business this evening. The dynamics associated with this potent Winter Storm are impressive. Stay weather aware tonight folks.

Dew points are crazy high for late December. The atmosphere is like a loaded gun tonight.

[unome]

Reed Timmer is heading further south in TX https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu

a busy #txwx hashtag tonight https://twitter.com/hashtag/txwx?f=twee ... t&src=hash

a great big hat tip to the hard working employees keeping everyone safely warned at NWS, WPC, SPC, etc... they deserve double pay imo

[Ounce]

Reed Timmer is heading further south in TX https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu

a busy #txwx hashtag tonight https://twitter.com/hashtag/txwx?f=twee ... t&src=hash

a great big hat tip to the hard working employees keeping everyone safely warned at NWS, WPC, SPC, etc... they deserve double pay imo

Are they part of the partial shutdown? I know they'll keep working, regardless of payment.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We are at 1.48 inches already in Montgomery County under scattered showers today with many lined up to come over the next two hours. Main event will probably push us over 3 inches, maybe 4.

[wxdude]

Winds have been near tropical storm force at times today across our Region. It has certainly created problems for air travel throughout the afternoon and I saw a report of a couple of injuries on a flight inbound to Austin earlier this evening. That squall line to our West means business this evening. The dynamics associated with this potent Winter Storm are impressive. Stay weather aware tonight folks.

Had power outages in our neighborhood due to the winds. They were howling today.

[Cromagnum]

Doesn't look like we are concerned with any discreet cells in our neck of the woods, just a squall line.